Labour 10 points ahead of Tories...

No, the hypothetical part of this poll is other Tory leaders should Johnson get the boot, which shows people don't really care for anyone else either.

Other than that, its a poll on current voting intention which shows Labour wiping out the Tories "red wall" gains in 2019.
But it is all hypothetical Chris because thats a snap shot of the mood today and there is no imminent election, the Tories are likely to soon have a new leader, Covid could be confined to history by March, allowing focus to switch back to sorting the Brexit mess and an improved economy. Those polls could look very different by the summer and then by GE time it could be anyones to win again.
 
But it is all hypothetical Chris because thats a snap shot of the mood today and there is no imminent election, the Tories are likely to soon have a new leader, Covid could be confined to history by March, allowing focus to switch back to sorting the Brexit mess and an improved economy. Those polls could look very different by the summer and then by GE time it could be anyones to win again.

It's not hypothetical, it's a poll on current voting intention. It's exactly what it says it is. The only hypothetical is the voting intention on any potential replacement for Boris Johnson.

Yes polls change and could be different come the next GE, but the polls serve the purpose they are designed for outside of a general election which is to test the current mood of voters.

And if you actually read the polls they factored in Covid/Economy/Brexit with the later two likely to get much worse for the Tories.

Labour now have near majority levels of polling, even excluding Scotland and are remaining consistent or increasing. Labour are also likely to gain more support once in the GE cycle and their manifesto is launched.

So, right now it's good news from a Labour point of view and very bad for Tories.
 
It's not hypothetical, it's a poll on current voting intention. It's exactly what it says it is. The only hypothetical is the voting intention on any potential replacement for Boris Johnson.

Yes polls change and could be different come the next GE, but the polls serve the purpose they are designed for outside of a general election which is to test the current mood of voters.

And if you actually read the polls they factored in Covid/Economy/Brexit with the later two likely to get much worse for the Tories.

Labour now have near majority levels of polling, even excluding Scotland and are remaining consistent or increasing. Labour are also likely to gain more support once in the GE cycle and their manifesto is launched.

So, right now it's good news from a Labour point of view and very bad for Tories.
Basically right Chris. The tories will get an inevitable bounce in the polls with a new leader. Some of the disenfranchised tory votes will re-align if they like the new leader.

Over the next 12 months it is going to become more difficult to cover up the brexit failures and the economy will become the focus of Labour, and the tories letting the poor folks freeze or starve.

I really cannot see the tories polling much higherr than they are now, even in 12 months time.
 
I'm not following SmallTown. We don't have much of an option right now other than to support it as it's the only show in town. The next opportunity to change it would be if we had a labour Government. And then only if they felt inclined to make it a key part of their manifesto. I think they need to but some apparently see that as a risk. And right now I don't know what Kier's intentions are. A few on here are saying he shouldn't tell us. All quite odd.
You’re wrong. We can complain about how bad it is. We can pressure MPs to reverse some of its biggest failures. They won’t care of course, until they realise it’s a vote winner to listen to us.

just living with the decision is a crazy thing to say. Imagine you’re with a group of mates. You come across a pub that looks pretty dangerous but half of you want to go in and so you go in. The beer is terrible, someone has nicked your phone and you keep getting in to fights: do you “just live with it” drinking bad beer, losing valuables and being punched in the face. Or do you do something about it?
 
I agree to an extent. But even telling people they made a 'stupid mistake' and they 'have to understand' seems so fundamentally wrong to me. The argument as to why a better alternative exists needs to be strengthened i.e. there are some highly intelligent people that voted for brexit (like it or not) and a lot of people had genuine concerns about the EU beyond the simple immigration/racism narrative. For me that's where the remain argument was lost. There was no middle ground. Both sides dealt in extremes and it continues as evidenced by some of the adjectives used on here. If i go on a different forum it will be all about the woke, anti-British etc. etc. It's the same now in the battle for No. 10. At some point, Labour need to draw back from the Tory implosion and hammer home the message to the red wall why they are a better alternative. And it can't just be 'well look at them now - you made a mistake last time, now you're getting a second chance to do the right thing'.


'there are some highly intelligent people that voted for brexit'

You are absolutely right. This is very much the key point. We can say the same about pretty much every stupid decision people have made. Highly intelligent people do still make stupid decisions and very regularly. We all do. That is especially true of politics.

Why is that?

Well, we are less likely to make dreadful mistakes when we are making big personal decisions because those big personal decisions are going to have a big direct impact on own lives and the effect will be instant. Therefore we will usually pause and review, look at all the angles, before we rush into a rash, emotional, instinctive action. Usually. When we don't, how often do we regret it? There is a reason we don't let relatives and friends of a victim on a jury, there is a reason best practice is to remove anyone with a conflict of interest from a decision making process. We have learned over time that our biases interfere with us making the best decision. This is no better illustrated in Science. Science is not a thing, it is a process. It is a method, developed over millennia by giants standing on the shoulders of giants. How dare any of us think we know better?

Unlike a personal decision, the impact of a political decision on an individual is a more distant one. It isn't as direct or as great and it isn't as instant. So something happens psychologically to us with that. That distance between action and consequence is significant. Just look at the difference between the way most people argue with someone they are face to face with and how they argue on twitter or a message board. There is less regard for personal consequences.

Furthermore, with a personal decision, the issues are less complex and we understand all the parameters and issues to expert level, as when it comes to ourselves we are each the foremost authority on the planet, (except sometimes your wife and your mum).

Every minute of our lives involves us making choices. Mostly we don't realise it because Darwin's great insight tells us that we are a product of evolution by means of natural selection. So, a series of successful 'mistakes' with the sole acheivement, as a species, of successfully passing on our genes. That means we evolved, as a species, some brilliant instincts to serve us well, throughout our lives, to survive and propagate. Nothing more. Our bodies are always ready with an instinctive decision for us, instantly, all the time. Rarely, does our brain override these decisions. It has to work hard when it does.

Our instincts are decision making shortcuts that evolved, on the whole, to get us laid, and avoid getting eaten by a predator or doing something stupid that gets us killed. Our instincts are proven to work well by those parameters, since we are a very successful species.

However, that doesn't mean that our instincts lead to the best outcomes every time, for every type of decision, just that on balance they avoid the worst consequences. They are shortcuts and they are quick, because quick reactions avoid death or a lost opportunity for food or sex. The really smart decisions, the best decisions we make are the careful ones. The planned and researched ones. The ones that recognise that our instincts can create barriers and biases. We now know these instincts are incredibly powerful. They take some overcoming because most of the time we don't even realise we are experiencing this influence. Even worse, intelligent people driven by powerful instincts that overpower their critical thinking skills, can then use their intelligence to find all sorts of arguments to justify a choice or decision that they won't acknowledge was flawed in it's process, if they have an ego. Most of us have an ego sometimes.

Now, when it comes to politics, because it isn't an instant consequence, because the effects aren't perceived as large and catastrophic, because the issues are usually complex and we are not as expert as we are on our own private life, we take a different type of shortcut a lot of the time. We go with an instinct. To the point that we go as far as just picking a tribe we identify with and pretty much going along with their choice.

What happened with Brexit was a perfect storm. It was complex. It wasn't a personal decision. One side was very effective at telling lies that appealed, simplifying a very complex matter, while the other side was poor at presenting their case and handicapped by truth and complexity. The traditional referee, the media, were useless as an arbiter of truth, because they didn't understand the complexity either and most were captivated with the court intrigue of the Conservative Party internal politics or else just biased.

Because of that it is unfair to be too hard on those who voted Brexit in 2016. You can't complain that people basically made the decision based on a gut instinct, on a narrative they were told that appealed, when that was all they had to go on, such was the poor quality of the debate and information easily available.

The information was there and if you rigorously and genuinely tested the arguments of both sides with equal vigour and with the right process, you could work out what was the best decision. That was hard though. Really hard. For most, on either side, the decision was led by instinct. Remainers got it right, but for 95% of them this sheer luck that their instincts on this issue lent the correct way. It wasn't because they had extra smarts.

Brexiters who didn't at least come around to favouring a People's Vote by 2019 however, that's a different matter. There really is no excuse for that. I mean, seriously, who takes a major decision in their personal life without having a plan, or following someone on trust, without checking they have a plan? Who? The answer is not 17.4 million people, it is no-one who is thinking properly.
 
Conservatives are down to about their core support now and I don't think they will improve much before an election. Some of the core support may well drift away over time too.
 
These polls change massively over time. Whilst I hope beyond hope that this will stick, plenty of incumbent governments drop massively in mid term polls only to regain support over time, all I'm saying is "don't get too excited, this has time to change
Normally I would agree Warwick. But look at what has been going on. Even outside of the daily scandals they are raising taxes, brexit is failing and will continue to do so, we are all going to be hit in the pocket over the rising cost of living. What is going right for the tories?

I would venture to say nothing and these are not all at the feet of Johnson.
 
Normally I would agree Warwick. But look at what has been going on. Even outside of the daily scandals they are raising taxes, brexit is failing and will continue to do so, we are all going to be hit in the pocket over the rising cost of living. What is going right for the tories?

I would venture to say nothing and these are not all at the feet of Johnson.
Very true, they are also failing on immigration big time (the true reason most people voted brexit), I do fear this could also be the ace up their sleeve, they will play to the immigration lynch mob
 
I think the Tories are done.

32% are simply people who are tribal, incapable of switching teams because they identify with something deeper than the recent leadership, performance and policies.

I’m similar on the opposite side of the political spectrum if I’m honest, which doesn’t reflect that well on me either.

What I think is different is the level of anti Tory dislike. It seems off the scale and I don’t think you come back from that kind of disdain and disgust, at least not while the opposition appears to not be obviously worse.

The Tories are done, they are just moving the deckchairs around on the titanic. Policies and mindset have actually brought them down, the personal qualities of those behind them have simply highlighted these failings, so all can see.
 
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I think what is interesting is the way tv interviewers deal with the hapless line of ministers that are wheeled out to defend the indefensible and prostitute themselves for Johnson.

It goes beyond tough, impartial questioning. There is an utter disdain.

I think that cuts through to people as they watch. It's a tough gig to boost support if in every tv interview the members of the cabinet are made to look like self serving fools where the interviewer makes no attempt to conceal their contempt.
 
I think what is interesting is the way tv interviewers deal with the hapless line of ministers that are wheeled out to defend the indefensible and prostitute themselves for Johnson.

“ Financier, John Armitage, who has given more than 3 million to the Tories in last few years believes PM's time is up”
(BBC Laura K)

When the money recognise it’s time for him to go…that should be it.
 
Tribalism is strong in politics. Thatcher was absolutely hated by at least third of the UK population, but she won three General Elections on the bounce and was in power for 11.5 years.

I know this will not be popular on here, but Labour has to do a lot more to win back the Red Wall voters to get a 10% lead. In Hartlepool the Tories won a near impossible seat (when in Government) this was a real vote not a poll in a Post Brexit time. The odds on Betfair are still more the Tories to win more votes and seats at the next election (by a significant margin), to me that is better gauge as its real money at stake, not an opinion given to a marketing company.
 
Tribalism is strong in politics. Thatcher was absolutely hated by at least third of the UK population, but she won three General Elections on the bounce and was in power for 11.5 years.

I know this will not be popular on here, but Labour has to do a lot more to win back the Red Wall voters to get a 10% lead. In Hartlepool the Tories won a near impossible seat (when in Government) this was a real vote not a poll in a Post Brexit time. The odds on Betfair are still more the Tories to win more votes and seats at the next election (by a significant margin), to me that is better gauge as its real money at stake, not an opinion given to a marketing company.
Thatchers government worked out if you keep about 40% of eligible voters happy you can pretty more ignore or anger the rest. I agree that the torys will still probably have more seats but they can kiss goodbye to pretty much all the red wall seats they won. Would have been hard enough as brexit importance would have faded in a lot of voters but Partygate has probably made it impossible.
 
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