The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Not that concerned that cases have stopped declining, it's probably that tests are now available (where as at the peak there wasn't enough), so now the cases actually represents the correct level, where as when we had our case peak, it was nowhere near the amount of infection.

Trending down in the older groups, which is the main positive, but trending up in the kids, which is to be expected with the return to school.

100k cases is manageable, for now, with us having good infection and vaccine coverage. Patients in hospital trending down, as is new daily admissions.

Scotland and Wales fared much better than England, likely due to their restrictions, which is good considering there's a fair amount of "less well off" people in those countries and they always get hit harder.

Still a bit windy, but looks like the Storm is over, hopefully it's the last one and next winter will end up equivalent to a bad flu year.

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Today's headline analysis:

• 96,871 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 102,292
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.6% to 90,900 per day, following 0.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.2% lower than one week ago (from 0.9% lower yesterday) and 34.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 37.7% lower yesterday and 47.6% lower 7 days ago)
• 338 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 346 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.4% to 262.7 per day, following 0.7% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 1.1% lower than one week ago (from 1.8% lower yesterday) and 0.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 6.3% higher yesterday and 70.0% higher 7 days ago)
 
Deaths are remaining much higher than I expected them to be by now. Am I alone in that?
I know it’s a debate that has been done an awful lot but as the virus is so prevalent i suppose a lot of people will test positive and they could well be included in the figures as people who have passed away with Covid and not necessarily because of it.

I am not trying to say that the death toll is acceptable or trying claim any sort of conspiracy, just trying to offer an explanation as to why the death toll remains high.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 89,956 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 96,871
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.0% to 89,176 per day, following 1.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.7% lower than one week ago (from 2.2% lower yesterday) and 29.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 34.3% lower yesterday and 47.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 277 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 338 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.6% to 261.1 per day, following 0.4% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 2.7% lower than one week ago (from 1.1% lower yesterday) and 2.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 0.7% higher yesterday and 67.7% higher 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 89,956 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 96,871
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.0% to 89,176 per day, following 1.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.7% lower than one week ago (from 2.2% lower yesterday) and 29.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 34.3% lower yesterday and 47.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 277 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 338 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.6% to 261.1 per day, following 0.4% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 2.7% lower than one week ago (from 1.1% lower yesterday) and 2.1% lower than two weeks ago (from 0.7% higher yesterday and 67.7% higher 7 days ago)
Strange variability in the case numbers in the last few days. Is this because we have full testing capacity again?
 
Strange variability in the case numbers in the last few days. Is this because we have full testing capacity again?

There seem to be (predictable) daily fluctuations in the case numbers. Even in the case numbers by specimen date, they are high on a Monday then gradually reduce each day through the rest of the week until the Sunday, when they increase slightly.

If you compare each day with its equivalent from the previous week, there is a general, gradual increase in case numbers.
 
They have just changed what they count as a 'case' to include reinfections meaning that any figures from here on will be higher than they would have been. It's a more sensible way of recording, but it makes comparisons very difficult to impossible. There's a corresponding effect on the death numbers as well.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 112,458 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 92,368
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.9% to 91,177 per day, following 0.6% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.2% lower than one week ago (from 5.0% lower yesterday) and 5.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 11.5% lower yesterday and 40.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 219 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 51 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 12.0% to 231.1 per day, following 0.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 12.3% lower than one week ago (from 0.3% lower yesterday) and 15.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 0.4% lower yesterday and 11.2% higher 7 days ago)

Increase in the 7-day average for new cases can be explained by the new definition, as highlighted by others, which now includes reinfections.

However, I'm puzzled by the supposed fall in the 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test. That definition has also been updated today to take account of the revised definition for new cases. This has resulted in an additional 1,121 cumulative deaths but, apparently, a halving in the number of deaths reported in the past 24 hours when compared with the same day last week.

Obviously, the number reported today could be correct, but it just seems a very sudden drop when the average had plateaued for the past 2 weeks. I'm also suspicious of the daily death totals by local authority, which appear to report a negative number of new deaths in several parts of the country.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 112,458 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 92,368
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.9% to 91,177 per day, following 0.6% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.2% lower than one week ago (from 5.0% lower yesterday) and 5.3% lower than two weeks ago (from 11.5% lower yesterday and 40.9% lower 7 days ago)
• 219 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 51 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 12.0% to 231.1 per day, following 0.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 12.3% lower than one week ago (from 0.3% lower yesterday) and 15.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 0.4% lower yesterday and 11.2% higher 7 days ago)

Increase in the 7-day average for new cases can be explained by the new definition, as highlighted by others, which now includes reinfections.

However, I'm puzzled by the supposed fall in the 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test. That definition has also been updated today to take account of the revised definition for new cases. This has resulted in an additional 1,121 cumulative deaths but, apparently, a halving in the number of deaths reported in the past 24 hours when compared with the same day last week.

Obviously, the number reported today could be correct, but it just seems a very sudden drop when the average had plateaued for the past 2 weeks. I'm also suspicious of the daily death totals by local authority, which appear to report a negative number of new deaths in several parts of the country.
That deaths thing may be effected by a change of reporting, or a catch up which hasn't happened yet?

There is also a fair bit of lag which we've been working our way through though, and it's only been 4 weeks since peak infection.

By "date of death" it looks a lot smoother, and is probably the best indicator, although there's a 4 day delay on complete data on that.

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The case rates are complicated.
In very broad terms for England, the northern half still coming down, the southern half on the way back up!
It's difficult to tell. Certainly where I am the figures were seeming to flatten out following a decline a couple of days ago without actually rising. But then they changed how the figures were calculated so I guess it won't be possible to see the direction they are going in for another week or so. Two days ago a figure of over 5000 was quoted for my borough (recent daily figures were around 300) so there was some sort of adjustment going on, and yesterday it was 600.
 
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North Yorkshire seems to be levelling out - Hambleton up. I have noticed that a lot of friends have caught it from their kids who have in turn caught it at school. Our local school ironically was closed due to Covid on the day we lifted restrictions.

Hopefully once that burns itself out the rates will go down pretty quickly.
 
A lot of infection now has moved over the the middle classes, who got off a bit lightly (comparatively speaking) pre crimbo and over crimbo.
 
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