The end?

zzzzz said:
Think I read somewhere, probably here, that Ukraine has artillery with much better range than the Russians.
Not looking good for them.
Click to expand...
Yes. Certainly written here. Ukrainian artllery, rockets etc way better than what Russia has left. And new stuff arriving. The Russian army is in a very poor state .... even worse since the massive bombarment last week.
 
The Ukrainian soldier on the news last night was brilliant.

Reporter asked if when this is all over if he will be happy with Russians living just I’ve the border…


His reply was “well if see them int he area I won’t immediately kill them…


But I will call him a d*ck”


Quality response 😆
 
Update from our jet-lagged man in Bali that answers some of the above questions. Hopefully he's back in Sweden later.

"
I really got hammered this time around by jetlag.
Or it is general stress of things.
Anyway, it 5.30 in the morning and I have given up on sleeping.
My alarm goes off in half an hour, so I might as well muse, shower, have breakfast and go...

Muppet (Lavrov) apparently had vodkas, and the morning after sat in the sun without drinking water.
That combined with his valve problem... basically dehydration. So, it is on in 3.5 hours.
It will be fun listening in at two masters of diplomacy have at it.
My role is mostly over, I explained the military technical details, and if there is any need for any military lingo explained I can brief in the earplug. At least I get to listen in.
I have not a rats bone how either of the 3 will play this.

Anyway, the meeting between Naryshkin and Burns in Ankara did indeed happen. I was surprised about that. CIA Directors just do not leave the US. But, there is apparently an exception to all. I do not have a clue what they talked about. It is though clearly a sign about something.

Anyway
Ukraine is amazing at dishing out massive pain to Russia.
The gigantic tech difference and weapons supplies are now really starting to show.

This is within 24 hours:
-Galumphinc across the Dnipro Bug to take the Kinburn spit? Check
-Restoring the Antonivka Bridge and taking a solid foothold in Southeastern Kherson? Check
-Missiling an airfied in deep Crimea? Check
-Blowing up a mechanized column of two tanks and three BMPs retreating from Kherson near Melitopol with handheld anti-tank weapons? Check
-Stealing the Russian flag from ontop of the the HQ of the Mayor of Melitopol and polishing shoes with it? Check
-Changing Russian flags all over Melitopol to Ukrainian flags? Check
-Belting Russian attempts of advancement all the way from Vuhledar to north of Bakhmut? Check
-Advancing in Luhansk? Check
-Bombarding the border defence line north of Sumy? Check

At Kinburn and Oleshky there was not a lot of Russian resistance. At Hero'iske in Kinburn the Russians fought a bit, and then screamed yalla yalla and hightailed it out.
At Oleshky it was more of mopping up stragglers and very drunk Russians. The rest had gone towards Crimea.

Those that fled via Antonivka are being moved to Crimea, and those that left via Nova Kakhovka are moving out to Melitopol.
As the meme goes: Russia is heroically running backwards while Ukraine are so terrified they are running forwards... Or some such.
Ukraine are not even trying to push the attack, instead they are falling into a vacuum. They are as surprised as anyone else over the lack of Russians, but they are happily taking back the rest of Kherson even though the Russians are mean and have gone without giving the Ukrainian army a chance to belt them.

My thoughts
I think Surovikin really ment it with throwing in the towel.
He knows as well as I do (and every Ukrainian), that the Russian are almost out of heavy gear and ordnance.
At that point you just can't fight a stronger and better equiped enemy, regardless of how many numpties you are commanding.
His entire aim right now seems to be to hold on to Crimea for as long as possible in an attempt for Lavrov to try to argue that Russia should keep it if they go home from the rest.

His movements out of Southern Kherson are exactly like on that blasted map he is pointing at on the picture.
The forces left are seemingly just there to buy a few days for the retreat, but the Ukrainians are way to strong for that to work by now.
My guess is that he will pull out of the Melitopol area down to Eastern landbridge to Crimea, and that the troops to the East (Mariupol and southern Donetsk) will pull out into Russia and go around to Crimea.
The timeline for that is though unsure, my guess is that he will hold as long as possible, but it will be impossible to hold Zhaporizhzhia and Melitopol when completely flanked.

He will leave the too stupid to live Wagnerites and Kadyrovites to continue attacking Bakhmut.
Surovikin for one would be happy if the Ukrainians killed all of them, and Soyghurt might giggle himself into a hernia as that problem is solved.

And up in Luhansk there are signs of units moving out backwards into Belgorod Oblast. Here is the biggest remaining tranch of T-72s. Everyone of those are nowadays incredibly important comodity to him.

I thought the map presented by Surovikin was a joke, or a ruse. Seems like it was indeed a fallback plan.
Soyghurt seems to not object especially much, I guess he finally figured out that it is bloody hard to be defence minister without an army to defend with.

I guess I do not have to point out that Putin has not opened his gob about anything for two weeks. Not even his doppelgangers are especially active.
Last one saw them was on the Policemens Day when one of them rewarded policemen who had fought in the war, while someone stole a few billion dollars at Sheremetjevo Airport... I guess the police was at the wrong place.
Otherwise it has just been a few stupendously out of touch televised snippets not mentioning anything, also from a doppelganger. And the cake of stupid doppelganger thingies was when it presented the wife of Kadyrov with the Heroine of Russia medal for squirting out babies.
Problem is just that "Putin" did not specify which of Kadyrovs four wives got it. Ahem...

Putins whereifall has become a meme of sorts here.
It is sort of assumed that he is at best gasping his last breaths in Sochi with his goat.
The Russians are none to amused by the jokes about Putins Where If All status.
One thing is though as sure as we can be without the Swan Lake, he is not running the show.

Time for coffee. Hopefully I can sleep on the plane later today if my assumptions are correct."


Surovikin.jpg
 
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The above landed in my inbox last night. Obviously the meeting happened in the early hours.
Update here.

It is quite bizarre that we are getting this stuff at FMTTM.

"
It has been a couple of eventful days, with a lot of waiting and hanging around.
Interesting to see the big boys play sitting at the "arena" watching.

An hour prior both sides handed in their term sheet.
At 0900 the arbiter held an opening statement refering to it all as negotiations of surrender due to the upcoming collapse of the Russian army. Lavrov didn't look that happy, but did not argue this point.
After that the terms from both sides was read.
Russia offered to pull out to Crimea as I expected, to "secure the historic naval port of Sevastopol", and proviso that Ukraine would per perpetuity keep the Crimean Canal open for water delivery to Crimea, this against an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal to Crimea and behind Russias 2013 border.
Ukraine presented Zelenskyy's 10 step plan for Peace.
Both parties agreed that this was what they had stated to the Arbiter.
When asked, both sides agreed that negotiations should start, and format for contact was agreed upon, with provisions to resume negotiations in two weeks.

My thoughts
"To secure the historic naval port of Sevastopol".
Crimea, the maximalist goal is to keep all of it, and no restitution and no war crimes. The minimalist goal of Lavrov is to keep the naval base with a to hell with the rest. Russia want the port, and is prepared to go a very long way to achieve that.

I was reminded after, that the initial Russian goal in 2013 was securing the base. It was the first thing the little green men did. Getting the rest of Crimea was at the time a bit of a lucky shot on their part.
And since they ran into very little resistance internationally (and to be honest in Ukraine at the time), they continued in 2014.

That did not go nearly as well and this is where the 8 year long war started that is about to end now.
Russia views the war of 2014-2022 as a separate thing from Crimea, they truly view Crimea as theirs since it surrendered to them according to every single law on surrender imaginable.
Donbas is more of Russia being a d*ck.

Ukraine would prior to February grudgingly have signed it away to get back Donbas and have peace.
Now Ukraine is going maximalist on the issue, and there is no headway for discussions unless Russia can drag out that part for quite some time.
I doubt that they will succeed with that since their army is in shambles.

Anyway, the interesting part is if the Russian army will collapse faster than things can be negotiated. I think Surovikin is about to make it all quite moot.

I would also like to laugh at the pundits extolling over Russia training a lot of soldiers outside of Ukraine (around 200 000) to be sent into Ukraine as some sort of doomsday meatwall.
The word training is extremely liberally used, they get almost none, and they have no equipment except around 100 000 rifles of uncertain working status.
It is more of a defence force anyway to be used in case Ukraine really decide to go to Moscow.
It is cute that they still overrate bodies over equipment in a modern war.

Anyway, time to go home.
I will sleep the entire time of the flight."

He just messaged saying he has a G650 to himself. Sent this link to the daily political talk show in Moscow. They're preparing for the inevitable.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1592416610165432320
 
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borolad259 said:
Update from our jet-lagged man in Bali that answers some of the above questions. Hopefully he's back in Sweden later.

"
I really got hammered this time around by jetlag.
Or it is general stress of things.
Anyway, it 5.30 in the morning and I have given up on sleeping.
My alarm goes off in half an hour, so I might as well muse, shower, have breakfast and go...

Muppet (Lavrov) apparently had vodkas, and the morning after sat in the sun without drinking water.
That combined with his valve problem... basically dehydration. So, it is on in 3.5 hours.
It will be fun listening in at two masters of diplomacy have at it.
My role is mostly over, I explained the military technical details, and if there is any need for any military lingo explained I can brief in the earplug. At least I get to listen in.
I have not a rats bone how either of the 3 will play this.

Anyway, the meeting between Naryshkin and Burns in Ankara did indeed happen. I was surprised about that. CIA Directors just do not leave the US. But, there is apparently an exception to all. I do not have a clue what they talked about. It is though clearly a sign about something.

Anyway
Ukraine is amazing at dishing out massive pain to Russia.
The gigantic tech difference and weapons supplies are now really starting to show.

This is within 24 hours:
-Galumphinc across the Dnipro Bug to take the Kinburn spit? Check
-Restoring the Antonivka Bridge and taking a solid foothold in Southeastern Kherson? Check
-Missiling an airfied in deep Crimea? Check
-Blowing up a mechanized column of two tanks and three BMPs retreating from Kherson near Melitopol with handheld anti-tank weapons? Check
-Stealing the Russian flag from ontop of the the HQ of the Mayor of Melitopol and polishing shoes with it? Check
-Changing Russian flags all over Melitopol to Ukrainian flags? Check
-Belting Russian attempts of advancement all the way from Vuhledar to north of Bakhmut? Check
-Advancing in Luhansk? Check
-Bombarding the border defence line north of Sumy? Check

At Kinburn and Oleshky there was not a lot of Russian resistance. At Hero'iske in Kinburn the Russians fought a bit, and then screamed yalla yalla and hightailed it out.
At Oleshky it was more of mopping up stragglers and very drunk Russians. The rest had gone towards Crimea.

Those that fled via Antonivka are being moved to Crimea, and those that left via Nova Kakhovka are moving out to Melitopol.
As the meme goes: Russia is heroically running backwards while Ukraine are so terrified they are running forwards... Or some such.
Ukraine are not even trying to push the attack, instead they are falling into a vacuum. They are as surprised as anyone else over the lack of Russians, but they are happily taking back the rest of Kherson even though the Russians are mean and have gone without giving the Ukrainian army a chance to belt them.

My thoughts
I think Surovikin really ment it with throwing in the towel.
He knows as well as I do (and every Ukrainian), that the Russian are almost out of heavy gear and ordnance.
At that point you just can't fight a stronger and better equiped enemy, regardless of how many numpties you are commanding.
His entire aim right now seems to be to hold on to Crimea for as long as possible in an attempt for Lavrov to try to argue that Russia should keep it if they go home from the rest.

His movements out of Southern Kherson are exactly like on that blasted map he is pointing at on the picture.
The forces left are seemingly just there to buy a few days for the retreat, but the Ukrainians are way to strong for that to work by now.
My guess is that he will pull out of the Melitopol area down to Eastern landbridge to Crimea, and that the troops to the East (Mariupol and southern Donetsk) will pull out into Russia and go around to Crimea.
The timeline for that is though unsure, my guess is that he will hold as long as possible, but it will be impossible to hold Zhaporizhzhia and Melitopol when completely flanked.

He will leave the too stupid to live Wagnerites and Kadyrovites to continue attacking Bakhmut.
Surovikin for one would be happy if the Ukrainians killed all of them, and Soyghurt might giggle himself into a hernia as that problem is solved.

And up in Luhansk there are signs of units moving out backwards into Belgorod Oblast. Here is the biggest remaining tranch of T-72s. Everyone of those are nowadays incredibly important comodity to him.

I thought the map presented by Surovikin was a joke, or a ruse. Seems like it was indeed a fallback plan.
Soyghurt seems to not object especially much, I guess he finally figured out that it is bloody hard to be defence minister without an army to defend with.

I guess I do not have to point out that Putin has not opened his gob about anything for two weeks. Not even his doppelgangers are especially active.
Last one saw them was on the Policemens Day when one of them rewarded policemen who had fought in the war, while someone stole a few billion dollars at Sheremetjevo Airport... I guess the police was at the wrong place.
Otherwise it has just been a few stupendously out of touch televised snippets not mentioning anything, also from a doppelganger. And the cake of stupid doppelganger thingies was when it presented the wife of Kadyrov with the Heroine of Russia medal for squirting out babies.
Problem is just that "Putin" did not specify which of Kadyrovs four wives got it. Ahem...

Putins whereifall has become a meme of sorts here.
It is sort of assumed that he is at best gasping his last breaths in Sochi with his goat.
The Russians are none to amused by the jokes about Putins Where If All status.
One thing is though as sure as we can be without the Swan Lake, he is not running the show.

Time for coffee. Hopefully I can sleep on the plane later today if my assumptions are correct."


View attachment 47793
Click to expand...
Don't know what you mean - surely explosions in n Crimea are more 'carelessly discarded cigarettes' ????

Sevastopol may be a NATO base if Ukraine join after liberating Crimea??
 
Uwefuchs said:
They were talking about reaching Berlin, The English Channel and Lisbon?

Really? Is that what the Russians wanted? Its absolutely delusional and what would be the point, aren't we passed the time when countries wanted an empire spanning half of the world.
Click to expand...

They weren't as such suggesting that was what they were going to do. More implying at the start that they were Russia and if that's what they wanted to do then they could. No-one would be able to stop them because they were the mighty Russia that everyone should fear.
 
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