Batley and Spen

Wiseman_Vaughn

Wiseman_Vaughn

Well-known member
Polling is not looking good for Labour. Could George Galloway come back to haunt them by splitting the vote?

What are your predictions if Labour are to lose this?

Will Starmer go? Will this be the catalyst for Burnham to step forward?

Personally, I think Labour will hold (only just). The emotional element should swing it Labour's way.

Batley and Spen
 
I fear Labour will lose. Whilst an oddball, Galloway has the spin to tempt some and is definitely targeting the Muslim vote. This whole episode is symptomatic of Labours dilemma. They have lost their identity, purpose and place in politics. They are neither one thing or another, don’t represent the common man or the aspirant folk. The devastating fact is that at a time when the country desperately needs a credible opposition to the worst government in living memory Labour is divided, divisive, unattractive and rudderless which is disastrous for the country as a whole. This will be another Hartlepool - a Tory win and another nail in Labours heat. How deeply depressing
 
Duffman said:
I fear Labour will lose. Whilst an oddball, Galloway has the spin to tempt some and is definitely targeting the Muslim vote. This whole episode is symptomatic of Labours dilemma. They have lost their identity, purpose and place in politics. They are neither one thing or another, don’t represent the common man or the aspirant folk. The devastating fact is that at a time when the country desperately needs a credible opposition to the worst government in living memory Labour is divided, divisive, unattractive and rudderless which is disastrous for the country as a whole. This will be another Hartlepool - a Tory win and another nail in Labours heat. How deeply depressing
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I like GG and he says it how it is. Wouldn't it be ironic if, after all these years of being banished from Labour, he was the difference between winning and losing?
 
Labour have lost a lot of the older Northern working class vote. They used to be around 75% Labour. Some of it is a image issue as older voters rely on state health and possibly social services. The more Labour concentrate being seen to help helping minorities, greening up the planet, attacking Brexit, apologising for the British Empire/Army, based in the big Metropolitan cities, the more over 55s in places like Batley, they will lose.

Some might say the older voter is stuck in a pre-1973 UK, when the UK was less diversified, we still made things, we wanted a house and a car and the UK was politically and socially quite different from mainland Europe. But over 55s make a high percentage of voters particularly in the Red Wall/left behind areas.

The Tories are better able than Labour to appeal to different groups.

I do think Batley is different to Hartlepool as it has a much higher non white population and it is a commuter area for Leeds and possibly Sheffield. I still think it will go Tory though.
 
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It doesn’t matter in the long run, there are massive economic storm clouds gathering for this country which will put paid to the Tory run in government.

And I don’t say that with any pleasure at all, I think it’s going to be brutal.
 
Chris_Boro said:
Weirdly, there wasn't polling for Chesham & Amersham.

Funny that.
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It appears that there was not much press presence in the constituency. This was noted by the locals and many felt glad of it as they voted the way that they actually felt and not pressured or persuaded to vote in a particular direction. (I can't remember where I read that, somewhere on the internet).
 
Trug said:
It appears that there was not much press presence in the constituency. This was noted by the locals and many felt glad of it as they voted the way that they actually felt and not pressured or persuaded to vote in a particular direction. (I can't remember where I read that, somewhere on the internet).
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Probably no press presence in Chesham and Amersham as they assumed a Tory shire seat with a 15000 majority was a stonewall certain hold
 
I think they'll lose the seat despite the sadness of it all, too many heads have been turned since. Galloway being there just throws a spanner in the works and does more work for the Tories. He's turned into a bit of a doyle, I didn't mind him when he was a Labour MP.
 
The latest in what's becoming a familiar pattern for Labour. Take a loyal voting block and offer them nothing but abuse since Mandelson says they've got nowhere else to go. Then react with shock when they find somewhere else to go.

First Scotland, then the "red wall", then the left, now muslims. Students, London or Wales next?
 
Wiseman_Vaughn said:
I have no alignment to any party.
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The tone of your OP coupled with your earlier GBNews thread - its quite transparent where your political leanings are.

That said you are right. Under normal circumstances Labour should be walking this constituency by election given the Governments recent performance. The fact that they are far from doing so is deeply concerning both for the Party and the country.
 
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The Tories did cut services in RedWall areas after elected in coalition in 2010, it was unfair to some degree as the 2009 recession was really generated in financial institutions mainly in the City of London in this country. The money to bail out the banks was taken from all over the UK including poor areas like Hartlepool where some public services were significantly cut, state benefits were cut to pay for the bankers bets than went wrong.

However that is just part of the picture as said Labour took its heartlands for granted in the Blair/Brown years. Large employers (particularly in manufacturing) like ICI disappeared and nothing seemed to replace them. Imported labour kept UK wage levels down in many working class occupations. Areas of the UK appeared where over 25% of the working age population were on sickness benefits, as older workers who were struggling to find work were encouraged to come off the unemployment register and take alternative benefits such as incapacity.

The City bankers were allowed to do what they liked in the Blair and most of the Brown years which laid the foundations for the financial collaspe. It wasn't just the UK of course. Unfortunately the same pattern is starting again and Labour offer no proper solution, just like the Tories. Executive pay rises much faster than inflation still and all the tax perks of the past are still generally in place, Financial people are still placing bets that if they go wrong in a big way will be likely bailed out by the Government because some organisation are too big to fail. There was a glimmer under Corbyn/McDonald that the Labour Party may represent ordinary working class people, but there were too many vested interests that snuffed them out. Some of those vested interests were even from within the Labour Party itself.

Many current RedWall Tories are just playing the game, getting investment and things changed for their votes, getting someone in Notting Hill to notice they exist and recognise their problems. And dare I say, actually do something to create a more one nation state.
 
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Wiseman_Vaughn said:
I have no alignment to any party.
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Its a concept that the Marxists on here don't understand. If you are not aligned with their ideas then you have to be in the other camp. They don't judge ideas or issues in an individual basis. Its alien to them.
They are also very quick to point it out to others and use any scrap of information to prove that you are a Tory a Brexiteer or whatever.

As an example the start of the rise in inflation is all down to Brexit. Well yes some of it is but the biggest factor is the huge borrowing that has had to made to finance a COVID impacted economy. But the told you so mentality fits the narrative so well.
 
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