Clean sheets win tournaments

WilliamMunny

Well-known member
Don't believe me, well here are some stats based on the winning teams from the last 3 Euros and last 3 World Cups:

Total number of games played by winners - 40
Total number of clean sheets - 25
Number of games winners scored more than 2 goals - 9
Number of games won by a single goal - 19
Number of knockout games won by 2 or more goals - 7 (out of 22)
Games decided on pens - 3
Number of 1-0 wins - 13

There's been a few mentions on here recently of England trying to emulate Greece, but Spain scored only 4 goals winning their group at WC 2010 before 4 consecutive 1-0 wins made them World Champions. In fact, Spain won 3 tournaments back to back, scoring only 14 goals in 10 knockout games, including 4 in the final against Italy in 2012 (so 10 goals in 9 games before that!).

It's also been mentioned that Portugal won only one game in 90 mins on their way to the Euro 2016 title, but it seems to be overlooked that mighty France beat Australia 2-1, Peru 1-0 and drew with Denmark 0-0 in their World Cup group in 2018 before going on to win the whole thing with a non-scoring striker.

Even in 2014 when Germany won 1-0 AET in the final, the fact that they scored 7 against Brazil in the SF is far more remembered than their 2-1 AET win over Algeria in the last 16 or the 1-0 win over France in the QF (let alone the 2-2 group draw with Ghana and 1-0 win over USA). The Argentina side they faced in the final scored only 1 goal inside 90 minutes in 4 knockout games, but crucially they didn't concede any until extra time in the final. And that's a side with Messi, Higuain, Di Maria, etc.

Now here is the crux of the matter: do I think England are playing as well as they can offensively? Absolutely not. However, no winner of the last 5 tournaments has won all 3 group games and no winner of the last 6 tournaments has won more than 1 group game by 2 or more goals. These games are generally quite cagey and that continues into the knockout rounds. History shows that a team that doesn't concede many wins the big tournaments and rarely do they have a big winning margin in the knockouts.

Personally I think (and hope) England will play better offensively against the better teams, with our strong defensive base meaning that 1 goal might be enough anyway. It often is in the knockout games. Therefore whilst it would be lovely to think we could play 6 attacking players and blow teams away, history suggests that such an approach (see Brazil 2014) is likely to prove suicidal at some point. Therefore 1-0 wins are fine by me as they haven't hurt Spain, Germany, Portugal or France on their way to winning the last 6 major tournaments.

I have nothing further to add.
 
If you have the ball 70% of the time the opponent has less time to score so I would say possession stats are the important indicator, which is where I would worry a little.

But yeah you don't have to be any good to do well in tournament football. 1 or 2 good games and before you know it you're going home with a trophy. I mean look at Greece. The most important factor is luck.
 
Don't believe me, well here are some stats based on the winning teams from the last 3 Euros and last 3 World Cups:

Total number of games played by winners - 40
Total number of clean sheets - 25
Number of games winners scored more than 2 goals - 9
Number of games won by a single goal - 19
Number of knockout games won by 2 or more goals - 7 (out of 22)
Games decided on pens - 3
Number of 1-0 wins - 13

There's been a few mentions on here recently of England trying to emulate Greece, but Spain scored only 4 goals winning their group at WC 2010 before 4 consecutive 1-0 wins made them World Champions. In fact, Spain won 3 tournaments back to back, scoring only 14 goals in 10 knockout games, including 4 in the final against Italy in 2012 (so 10 goals in 9 games before that!).

It's also been mentioned that Portugal won only one game in 90 mins on their way to the Euro 2016 title, but it seems to be overlooked that mighty France beat Australia 2-1, Peru 1-0 and drew with Denmark 0-0 in their World Cup group in 2018 before going on to win the whole thing with a non-scoring striker.

Even in 2014 when Germany won 1-0 AET in the final, the fact that they scored 7 against Brazil in the SF is far more remembered than their 2-1 AET win over Algeria in the last 16 or the 1-0 win over France in the QF (let alone the 2-2 group draw with Ghana and 1-0 win over USA). The Argentina side they faced in the final scored only 1 goal inside 90 minutes in 4 knockout games, but crucially they didn't concede any until extra time in the final. And that's a side with Messi, Higuain, Di Maria, etc.

Now here is the crux of the matter: do I think England are playing as well as they can offensively? Absolutely not. However, no winner of the last 5 tournaments has won all 3 group games and no winner of the last 6 tournaments has won more than 1 group game by 2 or more goals. These games are generally quite cagey and that continues into the knockout rounds. History shows that a team that doesn't concede many wins the big tournaments and rarely do they have a big winning margin in the knockouts.

Personally I think (and hope) England will play better offensively against the better teams, with our strong defensive base meaning that 1 goal might be enough anyway. It often is in the knockout games. Therefore whilst it would be lovely to think we could play 6 attacking players and blow teams away, history suggests that such an approach (see Brazil 2014) is likely to prove suicidal at some point. Therefore 1-0 wins are fine by me as they haven't hurt Spain, Germany, Portugal or France on their way to winning the last 6 major tournaments.

I have nothing further to add.
Can't fault the analysis. The truth is, if your team lifts the trophy no body gives a damn how it was done.
 
Can't fault the analysis. The truth is, if your team lifts the trophy no body gives a damn how it was done.
This ⬆️
Even a bored as I am watching the way we play I would forgive anything of we win the competition.
 
the debate will be if england can keep a clean sheet V Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, holland etc etc etc.

if they cant theyre in trouble.

ive seen the comments off the experts on here concerning Walker, Rice & Mings - that defence could be porus.

and we aint seen a clanger off the mackem in goal yet, thats sure to come at some stage, sooner rather than later.


of course the fans give the team confidence by booing them 30 seconds before kick off.
I think that if England do go a goal down we have enough attacking options to go all out for a goal. That doesn't worry me too much England have done enough and no more so far
 
How does home advantage help?
As the idea of playing championships all over the place hasn't really got much in the way of history you can only really look at hosts of major competitions and playing in their home nations does seem to help them reach a level more than when they weren't hosting more often than it doesn't.

See South Korea (when the tournament was staged between them and Japan) , France winning the world cup for the first time on home soil or indeed us at Euro 96 or '66 for example.
 
I think that if England do go a goal down we have enough attacking options to go all out for a goal. That doesn't worry me too much England have done enough and no more so far
It’s not the options as much that trouble me, but how brave would Southgate be to make the changes.
If England are down by 1 goal I couldn’t see Southgate altering the set up drastically to get a goal.
 
It’s not the options as much that trouble me, but how brave would Southgate be to make the changes.
If England are down by 1 goal I couldn’t see Southgate altering the set up drastically to get a goal.
Not with an hour to go, the question would be how long does he wait. I think you are right in as much as he will wait longer than we as fans think he should as most managers do. It would also depend on whether we were competative prior to the goal.
 
Not with an hour to go, the question would be how long does he wait. I think you are right in as much as he will wait longer than we as fans think he should as most managers do. It would also depend on whether we were competative prior to the goal.
I don't think some managers pay too much attention to goals conceded and scored, certainly not as much as us fans do.

Klopp has alluded to it a couple of times I think.

Reason I mention this is that if we are on top of the game and go a goal down then it doesn't make sense to change things straight away. The key thing is being patient and focusing on what's happening in the game rather than the score. The result usually takes care of itself of you are on top of the game.
 
We are very poor at scoring goals - in the last tourney we were fortunate with set pieces and that saved us until the semis.

I'm not getting carried away. We qualified in a poor group where 3 out of the 4 teams qualified and we couldn't beat the team that didn't. That speaks volumes.

I fully expect us to get knocked out on Tuesday. I hope I am wrong but I can't see an England win.
 
We are very poor at scoring goals - in the last tourney we were fortunate with set pieces and that saved us until the semis.

I'm not getting carried away. We qualified in a poor group where 3 out of the 4 teams qualified and we couldn't beat the team that didn't. That speaks volumes.

I fully expect us to get knocked out on Tuesday. I hope I am wrong but I can't see an England win.
The Germans are not unbeatable.
 
We are very poor at scoring goals - in the last tourney we were fortunate with set pieces and that saved us until the semis.

I'm not getting carried away. We qualified in a poor group where 3 out of the 4 teams qualified and we couldn't beat the team that didn't. That speaks volumes.

I fully expect us to get knocked out on Tuesday. I hope I am wrong but I can't see an England win.
Is there any reason why you think the Scotland result "speaks volumes". The OP pretty clearly sets out how irrelevant it is based on past results of winners.
 
Is there any reason why you think the Scotland result "speaks volumes". The OP pretty clearly sets out how irrelevant it is based on past results of winners.

I'm basing my pessimism on the past results of England which I believe are more relevant than how France or Portugal got on 20 years ago.

The Germany game will be as nervy as the Scotland game was but Germany are a step up in class. They have shown already this tournament that they know where the net is - something that we really struggle with. They have conceded a few goals though... if we can be resilient as the back we might sneak it 1-0. If we concede then I think it's game over.

I hope I am wrong.
 
Back
Top