Cryptocurrency Crash

Redwurzel said:
There is no way to value accurately value Cryto and its volatile nature is a big negative with investors.

Stock markets are only slightly down - but tech type shares are well down in the last 2 months. Its crazy really because products such as electric cars are selling well and most tech products. Some investors seem to think because interest rates will go up and Covid decline, people will use tech less. Myself I think investors a bit too negative at present. For example energy prices will drop (oil experts and oil companies on here said the long price for oil is $50 , but at present its $86 i.e it will drop). Another positive is employment I have never known so many jobs available since the 1970s, but the positive of this has not really been taken on board. A healthy jobs market will make people more confident to spend. Look at all the people wanting work done on their houses and people in 5 month queues for generally very expensive new cars.
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Good post.

Going deeper into it, I think a lot of people are concerned by the company valuations, of course tech will always be "up" in real terms, it's just whether it's up to a degree which can meet those valuations.

You're right about energy though, that can't stay that high forever, but the world needs to move to more predictable renewables, as people fighting over energy/ fossil fuels causes massive price hikes.

I think people are just panicking, being concerned it's a massive bubble, especially tech, but it of course will recover, no matter what lows it gets to, and it could drop significantly lower. There's still money to be made in less risk areas and people may go to cash to try and ride this out. Those who are investing money which is not as disposable as they think are the ones who will be panicking most, and the ones who often lose the most as they don't have the time to ride it out.

There may be some worry over Omicron slowing things down, which may be unjustified, but if things do slow down, then when they pick back up, demand for energy will increase again, further driving inflation.
 
Crypto had the same problem tulips had, and gold and sterling. It has no intrinsic value. You can't eat it, you can't burn it, nor can you use it for shelter.

If rather have a hug from my daughter than money.

Not a very valuable post but I am bored.
 
I am far too old and wizzened to want to invest in high risk assets. Im at the stage where low risk, low growth assets as part of my retirement portfolio do me fine. My pension pot grew 14% in 2021 which is great. It will probably lose 4% this year but that is perfectly acceptable and boring.

It helps me sleep well.
 
Into it later but have done well the last year (let's face it there wasn't much else going on)
I invested a capped limit of £1k and did well with AVAX, Moonriver, Spartan and a couple of others which boosted my holdings fivefold, but sold when things started to slide just before Xmas so I'm sitting with the pot on USDT and waiting to jump back in. A lot of speculation is that the floor for Bitcoin is around $30k but we'll see. I'm not a big gambler at all, in fact I don't bother on horses, lottery (any more) or other sporting events, but this captured my rather bored imagination during lockdown - I'm just playing in the wake of the whales.
 
I invested in crypto when bitcoin was 2k in 2017 and then sold everything when bitcoin was at 14k around 8 months later thinking that was the end. Obviously that was a mistake.

I've been watching it ever since and there's two possible scenarios in my opinion...

1. It bounces back, almost straight away, within the next 2-3 weeks.
2. It continues to fall as people see the red and panic sell, does nothing for a year or so, then goes even higher than it's ever been before.
 
swordtrombonefish said:
Into it later but have done well the last year (let's face it there wasn't much else going on)
I invested a capped limit of £1k and did well with AVAX, Moonriver, Spartan and a couple of others which boosted my holdings fivefold, but sold when things started to slide just before Xmas so I'm sitting with the pot on USDT and waiting to jump back in. A lot of speculation is that the floor for Bitcoin is around $30k but we'll see. I'm not a big gambler at all, in fact I don't bother on horses, lottery (any more) or other sporting events, but this captured my rather bored imagination during lockdown - I'm just playing in the wake of the whales.
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Got into Moonriver quite early but it's gone back to me making a bit of a loss now. Also losing on $KDA but buying more with it going so low. Still strongly believe both projects will last. My main profit is in $Luna, got in at $12.50 then kept buying every time I had a bit of spare cash as it rose until my last lot at about $60. It's back there now so wish I'd have jumped to USDT like you before Christmas when it was over $100, my mate did and told me what he was doing but I didn't bother. Live and learn. I totally think $Luna has $200 written all over it this year, or my mates brother does and he's gave me good advice up til now. I'm keeping hold anyway.
 
Laughing said:
Crypto had the same problem tulips had, and gold and sterling. It has no intrinsic value. You can't eat it, you can't burn it, nor can you use it for shelter.

If rather have a hug from my daughter than money.

Not a very valuable post but I am bored.
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At least with tulip mania you got a tulip out of it.
 
Ash88 said:
I invested in crypto when bitcoin was 2k in 2017 and then sold everything when bitcoin was at 14k around 8 months later thinking that was the end. Obviously that was a mistake.

I've been watching it ever since and there's two possible scenarios in my opinion...

1. It bounces back, almost straight away, within the next 2-3 weeks.
2. It continues to fall as people see the red and panic sell, does nothing for a year or so, then goes even higher than it's ever been before.
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You bought really early, and low, sold for 7x in 8 months which you pretty much timed at a major peak, and you think that's a mistake? It didn't get to 14k again for three years, also went via ~3k. The only mistake is thinking that was a mistake, the buy and sell were very much right, trying to do better and being greedy will often end in trouble. The only debatable thing you could have done is buy again after the long relative lull (compared to now), when it was fluctuating between 3k and 12k.

1. Why would it bounce back in 2-3 weeks? What's your reason for thinking this, what would drive this up? What would it bounce back to in that time?
2. Assuming a further fall to say $30,000 (could go well below this), over the next 2-3 months with the winter energy demand, what reason is there to think it could go back up to say 2.3x in 9 months?

There's an energy crisis, inflation, increasing interest rates and money coming out of pretty much all of the markets, liquidity is drying up, and everyone has heard of bitcoin now. Some of the only things propping it up are crime, illegal mining and retail investors trying to get rich quick, and all of those often end in disaster.

I'm not saying it won't back up mind, as it's got crazy volatility, but can't understand why it would go up now or soon. We could even be in a tech bubble, and if that bursts, then all crypto could go to near zero very quickly as IMO there's little underlying value to the asset currently.

Another couple of scenarios:

Scenario 3 is tech bubble bursts, and destroys the crypto market
Scenario 4 mining gets banned everywhere, largely due to energy conservation and energy going into things which have a use, which destroys the market. It's gone through the floor since China banned it, Russia is about to ban it, and if the USA bans it then it's likely game over.

Try and think about the possible downsides as well as the possible upsides, especially with something so volatile and with debatable underlying value to the asset.
 
Gains said:
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind buying now will generate profit.
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Blind faith is a sure way to the poor house
Before you do that lean some risk management , money management , cost of trading . And if you still have no doubt in your mind then you have learned nothing
 
I’ve got a bit of money in it, but the money is made buying and selling rather than holding onto it, look at cardano and ripple over the last 8 hours 😉
 
Dipped in a little with Quant and Sentivate. Probably doubled my money but peanuts when looking at what some people are in for.
 
Andy_W said:
You bought really early, and low, sold for 7x in 8 months which you pretty much timed at a major peak, and you think that's a mistake? It didn't get to 14k again for three years, also went via ~3k. The only mistake is thinking that was a mistake, the buy and sell were very much right, trying to do better and being greedy will often end in trouble. The only debatable thing you could have done is buy again after the long relative lull (compared to now), when it was fluctuating between 3k and 12k.

1. Why would it bounce back in 2-3 weeks? What's your reason for thinking this, what would drive this up? What would it bounce back to in that time?
2. Assuming a further fall to say $30,000 (could go well below this), over the next 2-3 months with the winter energy demand, what reason is there to think it could go back up to say 2.3x in 9 months?

There's an energy crisis, inflation, increasing interest rates and money coming out of pretty much all of the markets, liquidity is drying up, and everyone has heard of bitcoin now. Some of the only things propping it up are crime, illegal mining and retail investors trying to get rich quick, and all of those often end in disaster.

I'm not saying it won't back up mind, as it's got crazy volatility, but can't understand why it would go up now or soon. We could even be in a tech bubble, and if that bursts, then all crypto could go to near zero very quickly as IMO there's little underlying value to the asset currently.

Another couple of scenarios:

Scenario 3 is tech bubble bursts, and destroys the crypto market
Scenario 4 mining gets banned everywhere, largely due to energy conservation and energy going into things which have a use, which destroys the market. It's gone through the floor since China banned it, Russia is about to ban it, and if the USA bans it then it's likely game over.

Try and think about the possible downsides as well as the possible upsides, especially with something so volatile and with debatable underlying value to the asset.
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I totally agree, it wasn't a mistake to pull out, and I actually made a lot more than 7x as I didn't invest in BTC itself, I just use the BTC price as an indicator because the overall marketcap follows the BTC price.
A little bit gutted I didn't jump back in at 3k, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I now only own 1 ETH (and have for the past 4 years, since it was ~£200 haha).

1. Every time throughout the history of Bitcoin, every time there is a major rise like what has just occurred, it's followed by a 30% "correction". It's the same in the stock market.
Over the last couple of weeks it's been slightly more than 30%? but the rise has also been higher and faster than ever before too, so that's my reasoning behind my scenario #1.

2. I don't believe it will go up 2.3x within the next 9 months. My predictions, and it's all total opinion, are either #1: a short term rise back up to £45-50k, then continue on a steady path, or #2: another "crypto winter", the same as in 2018 where the price continues to fall, probably to the $10,000 region, everyone thinks it's dead for 2-3 years, while the rich traders stock up on more, before another media hype, new **** to base the hype off (like NFTs) and then a rise higher than ever before.

For your scenarios...
#3 - We are 100% in a tech bubble which will burst (possibly already has, my tech stocks have took an absolute battering this month)... but blockchain tech is growing beyond regular tech into pretty much every other market, so although it will be massively affected when the bubble bursts, I believe it'll just flatline and play into my scenario #2.
#4 - Over 90% of all BTC has already been mined, and it'll cost more to mine the final 10% than it will to mine the previous 90% around 10x over (totally made up figures but you get the idea).
It hasn't gone to the floor since China banned it, it's gone to the floor because people THOUGHT it was going to the floor when China banned, then they sold it, which in turn makes it go to the floor.
It's called "buying the rumour, selling the news". Mining has very little influence on the price, it's all media hype and has been since the early days.
 
HundredRoom said:
shudda taken it - you just lost more than 10% last 2 days and almost 50 % over last 6 months

time to buy more eh ?
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More of some yea. Jeez any need to be such a c**k? Haven't said how it's "coswallop" though eh? And must have missed the bit about being in front, but even if I'm not, why get so upset? Some weirdo's on here.
 
HundredRoom said:
Blind faith is a sure way to the poor house
Before you do that lean some risk management , money management , cost of trading . And if you still have no doubt in your mind then you have learned nothing
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It's gambling, not investment. The poor house? What are you on about? Seriously, are you drunk?

The fact you've decided to pick on what I say tells me something that has zero to do with you has got you rattled, why I don't know. Maybe it's spilled over from some other thread at some point, but as I said earlier, any need to be such a c**k?
And how likely do you think I am to do anything you say? See you in the poor house big lad, you and your risk management 😆
 
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