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Randy

Well-known member
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Chris_Boro

Well-known member
Might be able to answer if we knew what data went into the modelling.

Also I would expect more clarity on the decline than "sometime in Autumn".
 

Unravel_Morrison

Well-known member
I understand the logic behind it but it sounds like a steep drop to me. We are only 9-10 weeks from the end of the year. I guess we will know more once we see the effects of half term keeping kids apart from each other for a week or so. I'm guessing they're also pinning a lot of hope on the boosters being effective; presumably with the 6 month wait revised.
 

Muttley

Well-known member
Second word is the most important ...

COULD

...they don't know, extrapolating the current trends would seem to show us staggering along at the same rate for some time. It depends what parameters were put into the "model" that ministers saw. GIGO.
 

Zoophonic

Well-known member
John Edmunds was promoting herd immunity as the only way out of the pandemic. if this is the science that the Government are following it all make sense.

 

Laughing

Well-known member
I read this last week also. I have a couple of comments on this.

Firstly the way we count positive cases is a disgrace. You can only be counted in the positive cases once, even if your last positive test was 6 months ago. With that counting in place we could have zero cases and people dying every day of covid. This will naturally reduce the number of people who can be included in positive daily cases.

Secondly, the booster jabs are not gaining traction in as much as those invited are struggling to get appointments. If we do boosters slower than second jabs at the beginning of vaccination, more and more people will become more and more susceptible. It's a recipe for disaster and a petri dish for vaccine resistant strains.

Finally, the model may prove to be accurate, but I am not hopeful as no real reasons have bene given for this.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
I think it may be possible that there is a 'natural' fall off in cases based on significant levels of immunity in the population, i.e. the virus reaches a certain level but then has nowhere left to go (or certainly to grow).

We now appear to be experiencing the second decline in numbers from a peak of just under 50,000 cases per day (the last time being during July). There is no obvious explanation for this (as there wasn't in the summer either), as it seems too early for the school half term to be impacting the numbers, so it may be the case that once the virus hits that sort of daily level, it runs out of enough non-immune people to infect and starts to wane.

Not saying this is definitely the case, as it's probably too early to say, but an interesting hypothesis.
 

Unravel_Morrison

Well-known member
I think it may be possible that there is a 'natural' fall off in cases based on significant levels of immunity in the population, i.e. the virus reaches a certain level but then has nowhere left to go (or certainly to grow).

We now appear to be experiencing the second decline in numbers from a peak of just under 50,000 cases per day (the last time being during July). There is no obvious explanation for this (as there wasn't in the summer either), as it seems too early for the school half term to be impacting the numbers, so it may be the case that once the virus hits that sort of daily level, it runs out of enough non-immune people to infect and starts to wane.

Not saying this is definitely the case, as it's probably too early to say, but an interesting hypothesis.
It could also be that more people are testing positive for the second time, so aren't being represented in the figures in this wave.

I think they've looked at the fall off in numbers earlier in the year and decided that the current no lockdown but lots of vaccinations in that wave will be similar in effect to lockdown with fewer vaccinations, in the current wave.
 

Cambsred

Well-known member
Let's hope so.

Feels like deja-vu this. I'm sure that this was predicted a year ago...and then cases increased...and then we locked down...then cases declined...then we unlocked for Christmas...and cases went up.

Due to how easy this transmits I can't see it waining with this many cases in the Community. I hope it does though.
 

JM14

Well-known member
Isn’t plan b just working from home and masks indoors? With hundreds dying every day what possible reason could anyone argue against that? Probably the least intrusive and least disruptive measures we could have that could help avoid further restrictions
 

Randy

Well-known member
Isn’t plan b just working from home and masks indoors? With hundreds dying every day what possible reason could anyone argue against that? Probably the least intrusive and least disruptive measures we could have that could help avoid further restrictions
What are you laughing at?
 
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