Post vaccination lockdown exit strategy

M

Man_On

Active member
How do we all think this will play out?

Assuming that the top 4 groups have been vaccinated there should start to be a fairly significant change in the number of deaths recorded. I think its something like 95% of deaths occur in the top 4 groups?. (Sorry if that is inaccurate).

At that point hospitalisations should come crashing down (ICU). The only large number left will be infection rates.

Between April and October is the area that seems to be a bit grey at the minute. Possibility of infection is high but chances of serious illness is low.

I would think that the sensible approach will be to revert back to how we were after the first lockdown. 1 meter rule, masks mandatory but everywhere is open with certain guidelines (like what the hospitality industry spend thousands on the first time).

Then come October, except in a scenario of a new variant, the numbers should become insignificant. There will be a large number of people who have refused the vaccine so infection rates will stay around for a while but its not something i would expect to stop a return to normality.
 
Man_On said:
How do we all think this will play out?

Assuming that the top 4 groups have been vaccinated there should start to be a fairly significant change in the number of deaths recorded. I think its something like 95% of deaths occur in the top 4 groups?. (Sorry if that is inaccurate).

At that point hospitalisations should come crashing down (ICU). The only large number left will be infection rates.

Between April and October is the area that seems to be a bit grey at the minute. Possibility of infection is high but chances of serious illness is low.

I would think that the sensible approach will be to revert back to how we were after the first lockdown. 1 meter rule, masks mandatory but everywhere is open with certain guidelines (like what the hospitality industry spend thousands on the first time).

Then come October, except in a scenario of a new variant, the numbers should become insignificant. There will be a large number of people who have refused the vaccine so infection rates will stay around for a while but its not something i would expect to stop a return to normality.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1351313981894483970

I was quite disheartened to read this last night.
 
There’s so many variables still at play, but Easter is still 2.5 months away. My hope is a mixture of Vaccine effect, Lockdown, and turn to warmer weather, will put us back in a territory where some mixing will be allowed and hospitality is open again.

Figures over the summer should be a lot lower than they were last year and I’m sure we reached the low hundreds per day at one point.
 
The way things have gone so far I'd expect that by Easter we'll be in a situation where a large population are half vaccinated, having received only 1 of the 2 jabs, and some sort of half arsed poorly managed tier system to be in place still.
 
TheYorkshireTerrier said:
Can they just stop with specific dates or occasions? Have they not learnt from what happened at Christmas.
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Exactly. Why, with still 1000 a day dying, is this even being aired in the media? There's already talk of more people breaking the rules because infections are coming down and because old people are being vaccinated. No I don't understand it either but it's happening apparently. Putting dates on when things might be relaxed is folly and playing with people's lives.
 
My hope is that by next winter we will be back to some sort of normal winter where yes the very vulnerable may die as they do currently with flu. I don't mean to be heartless, but death is part of life. I won't get into a debate about what would be an acceptable number of deaths.

My biggest worry is that the variants of the virus seem to be effecting younger people more. This could just be that many many more people are infected this year versus the peak last year. It is still a worry.

We will see an easing of restrictions in the spring, time will tell whether that is the right thing to do.
 
Man_On said:
How do we all think this will play out?

Assuming that the top 4 groups have been vaccinated there should start to be a fairly significant change in the number of deaths recorded. I think its something like 95% of deaths occur in the top 4 groups?. (Sorry if that is inaccurate).

At that point hospitalisations should come crashing down (ICU). The only large number left will be infection rates.

Between April and October is the area that seems to be a bit grey at the minute. Possibility of infection is high but chances of serious illness is low.

I would think that the sensible approach will be to revert back to how we were after the first lockdown. 1 meter rule, masks mandatory but everywhere is open with certain guidelines (like what the hospitality industry spend thousands on the first time).

Then come October, except in a scenario of a new variant, the numbers should become insignificant. There will be a large number of people who have refused the vaccine so infection rates will stay around for a while but its not something i would expect to stop a return to normality.
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As we saw going into the 3rd lockdown the Gov don't care much for infection rates, it's hospitalisations that is the REAL thing they are afraid of.

As soon as hospitalisations start to drop I think we'll see a move back to the tiers with all of us starting in T3 and then a slow drop back into T2 and then hopefully everywhere in T1 by May.

North Yorkshire Timeline... T3 mid of March, T2 start of April, T1 end of April (y)
 
Laughing said:
My hope is that by next winter we will be back to some sort of normal winter where yes the very vulnerable may die as they do currently with flu. I don't mean to be heartless, but death is part of life. I won't get into a debate about what would be an acceptable number of deaths.

My biggest worry is that the variants of the virus seem to be effecting younger people more. This could just be that many many more people are infected this year versus the peak last year. It is still a worry.

We will see an easing of restrictions in the spring, time will tell whether that is the right thing to do.
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Its not heartlessness, the lockdowns are to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. People are free to do as they choose once that issue is solved, via lockdown/tiers/vaccination and whatever other means. The acceptable number of deaths would be whatever means the NHS can function relatively normally. We don't need to debate the drawbacks and other impacts lockdowns have yet again as its been done to death (no pun intended).

When lockdown ends (and I'm not sure when that will or should be) people will still be free to stay in if they want to and avoid the risk of catching covid/death. Those who want to choose to continue to shield should be given governmental support if they are in a high risk category and have no means to source food etc.

As for the effect on younger people, this may just be a symptom of rapidly rising cases recently now having an effect. Statistically the number will always grow if the cases grow. We'd have to all be given the data and asked to assess our own risks and what we're comfortable with.
 
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Very eloquently put Atypical. The heartless comment was to anyone personally effected by covid. It is horrible loosing someone and I would imagine we have all been in that situation at some point in our lives so can sympathise. I didn't want to upset anyone with, what appeared to be, a thoughtless comment.
 
Laughing said:
Very eloquently put Atypical. The heartless comment was to anyone personally effected by covid. It is horrible loosing someone and I would imagine we have all been in that situation at some point in our lives so can sympathise. I didn't want to upset anyone with, what appeared to be, a thoughtless comment.
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Indeed, it is terrible that this illness kills people, but hopefully we will get to a point soon where its just the usual week in bed and back to work for almost everyone. But I don't think anyone can promise that no one will ever die from it again after the vaccination process and I'm not sure society should be aiming for that unless we're abandoning utilitarianism altogether.
 
There was a report yesterday that nearly a third of people who recover from Covid-19 and are released from hospital are readmitted within 5 months. This is 3.5 times higher than the average readmission rates to hospitals. One in eight of those readmissions die.

The sooner we get to low numbers of cases and hospitalisations the better.
 
atypical_boro said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1351313981894483970

I was quite disheartened to read this last night.
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I'm sorry but Chris Whitty doesn't run the country. Neither does Patrick Valance. Johnson needs to grow a backbone and start listening to people from all areas of expertise.

Listening to Hancock yesterday he's saying restrictions could stay after the top 4 priority groups have been vaccinated in case new strains arrive. Well that just means we are in restrictions forever doesn't it?
 
Pretty much, two things seem pretty certain at this stage - Covid-19 will never be completely eradicated globally therefore some level risk will always remain and secondly, various mutations of the virus will appear.

The line on this from day 1 has always been how much risk is the government of this country (and others, admittedly) willing to accept.

This is not a battle they can "win" - I would expect to see a gradual lessening of restrictions as the % vaccinated increases, anything otherwise just begs questions that the gvt either can't (or won't) answer.

The current rhetoric is tricky however, on one hand the government want to start to take credit for the impending lessening of restrictions whilst on the other the importance of abiding by the restrictions is being driven home to maintain a manageable level of hospitalisations.
 
bear66 said:
There was a report yesterday that nearly a third of people who recover from Covid-19 and are released from hospital are readmitted within 5 months. This is 3.5 times higher than the average readmission rates to hospitals. One in eight of those readmissions die.

The sooner we get to low numbers of cases and hospitalisations the better.
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of course, everyone wants that, but what is 'low'? And who decides? We surely can't be expecting to live in lockdown until the virus is virtually eradicated?
 
Randy said:
I'm sorry but Chris Whitty doesn't run the country. Neither does Patrick Valance. Johnson needs to grow a backbone and start listening to people from all areas of expertise.

Listening to Hancock yesterday he's saying restrictions could stay after the top 4 priority groups have been vaccinated in case new strains arrive. Well that just means we are in restrictions forever doesn't it?
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Well Witty has already said we will need restrictions next winter. I don't really know if telling us this now is a good thing, especially not when even he cannot predict what's going to happen next. You start to wonder, if his stock answer is just to remain in lockdown for as long as is humanly possible, whether even he will maintain the public's trust?
 
atypical_boro said:
Well Witty has already said we will need restrictions next winter. I don't really know if telling us this now is a good thing, especially not when even he cannot predict what's going to happen next. You start to wonder, if his stock answer is just to remain in lockdown for as long as is humanly possible, whether even he will maintain the public's trust?
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Sorry but restrictions next winter aren't going to fly with anybody.

For example how can a business possibly build for the future once these vulnerable groups have been vaccinated (which we have been told repeatably is the way out of this) when you've got 'advisors' publicly stating that restrictions will come back at any time?

How is that not a dictatorship?

The country will see a massive mindset change once these 4 groups have been vaccinated. Even more so once other groups such as teachers, emergency services etc have been vaccinated too.


(Oh and disclaimer, this current government will look VERY different next winter).

EDIT - WHERE'S THE EXIT STRATEGY?!?! 😂
 
What would be the point of an Exit Strategy?

Even the harshest critic of this Government can see there is little point. There are still too many unknowns. In so much as there is a strategy it will go along the lines of that outlined last spring, a gradual easing and re-tightening of restrictions as infection rates go down (or up). It is important not to focus solely on the vaccine. Treatments for COVID are also improving so that we can expect to be able to treat future outbreaks more efficiently.

Oh and "Lockdown" is not the only restriction possible. Perhaps we will see mask wearing on public transport continue next winter? Would that be so hard?
 
Randy said:
Sorry but restrictions next winter aren't going to fly with anybody.

For example how can a business possibly build for the future once these vulnerable groups have been vaccinated (which we have been told repeatably is the way out of this) when you've got 'advisors' publicly stating that restrictions will come back at any time?

How is that not a dictatorship?

The country will see a massive mindset change once these 4 groups have been vaccinated. Even more so once other groups such as teachers, emergency services etc have been vaccinated too.


(Oh and disclaimer, this current government will look VERY different next winter).

EDIT - WHERE'S THE EXIT STRATEGY?!?! 😂
Click to expand...
The concern is if he knows something we don't about the new strains' resistance to the vaccine?? Terrifying thought.
 
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