Post vaccination lockdown exit strategy

Muttley said:
The reports I have seen show mental health problems at roughly seasonal levels, statistically, which is not to say that they are trivial
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I'm sorry if you are going to pick two words from one post out of context
Muttley said:
The "mental health crisis" mooted by some "Anti-maskers" is largely imaginary
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Randy said:
Largely imaginary?
How so?
It's not a competition to see who's mental health is affected the most.
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Engage with me about the whole of what I said not two words out of context that you seem to have misinterpreted. "Largely imaginary" referred to what was supposed to be a massive deluge of people suffering mental health problems as a result of the pandemic and referred to the numbers so affected not the people. This, according to reports I have read has not happened (yet?).

Clear?
 
Muttley said:
I'm sorry if you are going to pick two words from one post out of context


Engage with me about the whole of what I said not two words out of context that you seem to have misinterpreted. "Largely imaginary" referred to what was supposed to be a massive deluge of people suffering mental health problems as a result of the pandemic and referred to the numbers so affected not the people. This, according to reports I have read has not happened (yet?).

Clear?
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Crystal, but like you've already said, those problems may not be in massive numbers at the moment but they are coming. Just because they aren't officially reported doesn't mean the mental health problems aren't happening right now.
You and I both know one of the number one issues surrounding mental health is the fact that people bottle it up until the pressure becomes to much.

I'd definitely guess that each and every one of us who are a member of this forum have suffered with poor mental health issues over the past 12 months. Either minor or major.
 
As I said and agreed with TommyD that the problems will manifest when we leave the current situation, post the trauma if you will.
 
They must have some idea of how they expect the vaccines to affect hospital admissions and timings. They have a lot of information to work with.

They know how effective the vaccine is.
They have a pretty good idea how quickly they'll vaccinate people, particularly the most vulnerable groups.
They know the demographics of those being hospitalised (the vast majority being those in the most vulnerable groups).

If you can (as is the plan) vaccinate the vast majority of the people who make up the vast majority of hospital admissions then that should have quite an impact quite quickly shouldn't it? Assuming there are no problematic new strains there should surely be an easing of the burden on the NHS and you can start to ease restrictions.

At the rate they're vaccinating people surely thats by Easter easily. So confused why some of scientists are seemingly being much more pessimistic. Is it a fear of undermining compliance? Do they know something we don't?

Or (perfectly likely) am I being naive and being a bit over simplistic in my reasoning?
 
festa5 said:
They must have some idea of how they expect the vaccines to affect hospital admissions and timings. They have a lot of information to work with.

They know how effective the vaccine is.
They have a pretty good idea how quickly they'll vaccinate people, particularly the most vulnerable groups.
They know the demographics of those being hospitalised (the vast majority being those in the most vulnerable groups).

If you can (as is the plan) vaccinate the vast majority of the people who make up the vast majority of hospital admissions then that should have quite an impact quite quickly shouldn't it? Assuming there are no problematic new strains there should surely be an easing of the burden on the NHS and you can start to ease restrictions.

At the rate they're vaccinating people surely thats by Easter easily. So confused why some of scientists are seemingly being much more pessimistic. Is it a fear of undermining compliance? Do they know something we don't?

Or (perfectly likely) am I being naive and being a bit over simplistic in my reasoning?
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Good summary. The key thing is that the public need to be kept in the loop though re this pessimism otherwise they'll just lose trust and ruin any strategy.
 
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atypical_boro said:
Good summary. The key thing is that the public need to be kept in the loop though otherwise they'll just lose trust and ruin any strategy.
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Agree the messaging is key. I think that's my main gripe, if my summary is right (or not far off) why not set it out in layman's terms for people like that?

Not sure Whitty is the right man for it, but then people with deep expertise often find it hard to communicate clearly with those without. Not sure who is, but there must be someone. On the other side of the coin Johnson and Hancock worryingly don't seem to understand the topic enough, so not them either.....
 
festa5 said:
Agree the messaging is key. I think that's my main gripe, if my summary is right (or not far off) why not set it out in layman's terms for people like that?

Not sure Whitty is the right man for it, but then people with deep expertise often find it hard to communicate clearly with those without. Not sure who is, but there must be someone. On the other side of the coin Johnson and Hancock worryingly don't seem to understand the topic enough, so not them either.....
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I've said it for a while but a cross party leadership group is needed desperately. Its the only way to convince the public that there isn't a political agenda. Its pointless people just sitting and mocking people who don't buy into the wider picture (calling them covidiots etc), those people need to be onside too.
 
I think it will be mid summer before we get remotely back to normal in which case they will have to extend the furlough scheme or offer some bespoke help to my industry. I just want a exit strategy or a plan for my industry once everyone is vaccinated in this country, if you are going to keep automatically shutting your border every time there is a new strain then there won’t be a aviation industry left because this virus isn’t ever completely going away. Even if it’s just that you need a negative test before you fly will be something, this having to quarantine is unworkable especially if it’s still expected after everyone in the U.K. is vaccinated.
 
I don't know if anyone watched "The Last Leg" on C4 last Friday but they had Dr. Hannah Fry on (a Mathematician specialising in modelling human behaviour, who does quite a bit of media stuff). She was using the model of the 1919/20 Spanish Flu and she reckons that "full normal" is next spring (2022), that "mask wearing" will become the new normal certainly in urban situations for some years but that like the 1920s there will be a considerable "rebound" of socialising when we are free of the virus.
 
Muttley said:
I don't know if anyone watched "The Last Leg" on C4 last Friday but they had Dr. Hannah Fry on (a Mathematician specialising in modelling human behaviour, who does quite a bit of media stuff). She was using the model of the 1919/20 Spanish Flu and she reckons that "full normal" is next spring (2022), that "mask wearing" will become the new normal certainly in urban situations for some years but that like the 1920s there will be a considerable "rebound" of socialising when we are free of the virus.
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Sounds promising. I wouldn't hang my hat on that but it is better than hearing that this is going to go on forever, which is how it sometimes feels.
 
Full normal by spring 2022... What levels of 'normal' will people be allowed to have until then? What stops 2022 becoming 2023?

Did they have the facilities to vaccinate upwards of 500,000 people a day in 1919? It just sounds so incredulous to compare two totally different viruses (Spanish flu was far more dangerous than covid-19), even more so when you consider the time, what was occuring and the completely different actions by government locally and worldwide (i.e. effectively 0 action taken to stop spread in 1919).
 
Muttley said:
I don't know if anyone watched "The Last Leg" on C4 last Friday but they had Dr. Hannah Fry on (a Mathematician specialising in modelling human behaviour, who does quite a bit of media stuff). She was using the model of the 1919/20 Spanish Flu and she reckons that "full normal" is next spring (2022), that "mask wearing" will become the new normal certainly in urban situations for some years but that like the 1920s there will be a considerable "rebound" of socialising when we are free of the virus.
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That would just be depressing but I can’t see it.

There was no testing or vaccines for Spanish flu plus barely any healthcare or treatments.
 
Randy said:
Sorry but restrictions next winter aren't going to fly with anybody.

For example how can a business possibly build for the future once these vulnerable groups have been vaccinated (which we have been told repeatably is the way out of this) when you've got 'advisors' publicly stating that restrictions will come back at any time?

How is that not a dictatorship?

The country will see a massive mindset change once these 4 groups have been vaccinated. Even more so once other groups such as teachers, emergency services etc have been vaccinated too.


(Oh and disclaimer, this current government will look VERY different next winter).

EDIT - WHERE'S THE EXIT STRATEGY?!?! 😂
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I sometimes feel we need a dictatorship. We certainly haven’t got a Government that the people respect and I’m sick to the back teeth with those who feel they can do what they want without a mask on.
 
You're seriously messed up when you're asking for a dictatorship @Zoophonic.

I'd maybe consider editing that post. Millions upon milloons of people have died at the hands of dictatorships.
 
Zoophonic said:
I sometimes feel we need a dictatorship. We certainly haven’t got a Government that the people respect and I’m sick to the back teeth with those who feel they can do what they want without a mask on.
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Bit of an extreme “want” because a handful of people don’t wear masks? Careful what you wish for!
 
Alvez_48 said:
Full normal by spring 2022... What levels of 'normal' will people be allowed to have until then? What stops 2022 becoming 2023?

Did they have the facilities to vaccinate upwards of 500,000 people a day in 1919? It just sounds so incredulous to compare two totally different viruses (Spanish flu was far more dangerous than covid-19), even more so when you consider the time, what was occuring and the completely different actions by government locally and worldwide (i.e. effectively 0 action taken to stop spread in 1919).
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To be fair she’s a mathematical modeller so something like that is only ever going to be finger in the air. I could probably cope with it though.

The idea of getting full normal back at any point feels like a bit of a fantasy at the moment.
 
No easing until after Easter.
More restrictions lifted from May BH.
Tiers in place throughout the year.
More restrictions from October onwards.
Near to full lockdown possible again over winter.
Jan - May 2022 as above.

And mask wearing? To become the norm each winter from October to March.
 
Alvez_48 said:
You're seriously messed up when you're asking for a dictatorship @Zoophonic.

I'd maybe consider editing that post. Millions upon milloons of people have died at the hands of dictatorships.
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Don’t be so melodramatic I wasn’t seriously suggesting one as such. To get this under control we need widespread cooperation with the rules - on a scale that makes a difference. With this Government we can forget that.
 
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