Sums it up sky bias

The_Lizards_Jumpers said:
However some on here then think it'a all a massive conspiracy theory and Rupert Murdoch is sat in a dark rooming plotting ways in which Sky can downplay any Boro achievements.
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Which makes them wrong on more than one level, given that Rupert Murdoch got rid of Sky five years ago.
 
h_m_boro said:
I'd rather the media bigged them up and ignored us. The more quotes like this, praise for their cracking season, let's us just fly under the radar a little and get on with the job in hand.

And I do hope Coventry are get a teeny bit over confident based on their last trip to the Riverside.......

I just hope they don't adopt the same tactics - 6/7 men behind the ball defensive set up and Gyokeres conjuring up some individual magic with their "stock ball into the channel".

Would it be a shock if this is how they set up? Longer the game goes on even play for Penna's.......?
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Please don't mention penalties!!!!
 
I've heard the Coventry fans talk about all the pressure being on us and it being a free hit and its just absolute nonsense.

The game is equally huge to both teams, we're both 2 wins away from the Premier league so its not like neither team have nothing to play for.

A free hit is something like Everton's home game last weekend against Man City, they are massive underdogs, expected to lose and they get another bite of the cherry next weekend.

If Coventry lose, they'll lose Gyokeres who is their main outlet and maybe another couple of players. They might not get another chance as good as this for a while, obviously we could equally have the same things to lose.

And if the pressure is all on us and Coventry have nothing to lose why did they play like they did on Sunday? Did they look like a team with nothing to lose?

A team under no pressure and with a free hit would come here and take us on on Wednesday but do you really think that will happen?

Its just a lazy narrative used by the media and used by the Coventry fans to make themselves feel better. The pressure is on both teams, its just who deals with it better.
 
viv_andersons_nana said:
You’re arguing about something different.

Like it or not, Boro going up this season would be the least interesting thing to come out of the playoffs. To an outside observer. We were tipped to go up and spent a big chunk of cash - again.

The others: Sunderland have been in the third division and have got into the playoffs in their first season back, Coventry have been down to the fourth tier and the edge of bankruptcy, and been homeless for two seasons, and Luton have been down to the fifth tier(!) and the edge of bankruptcy, slowly grinding their way back and finishing 3rd with one of the smallest budgets in the league. Boro finished 7th last season.

That’s not to say there isn’t anything interesting about Boro’s story because there clearly is - Carrick has done a fantastic job and we, for the most part, play really entertaining, progressive football that is a pleasure to watch. But in comparison to the other three clubs and their recent histories, stories, narratives - which is the important thing here, let’s face it, when discussing TV companies and pundits - the Boro moving from 7th to 4th just doesn’t have the same sense of intrigue to it.

Luton were there last year but they’re still an amazing story because they’ve repeated it, with a tiny budget. Coventry are a similar story to Luton but a bigger club. Sunderland are in their first season back. Boro are the favourites for the tie tomorrow.

Acknowledging that there is slightly more intrigue about the other three clubs involved this season, or saying there’s less pressure on them because of what they’ve spent, where they’ve come from, etc - is just not the same thing as being biased.

You read this board and its amazing how determined people are to find an anti-Boro agenda when there just isn’t one. Pundits and journos may get their facts wrong at times but they get them wrong about all clubs outside the top six or seven, and even then it’s touch and go. I used to think everyone had a grudge against Boro when I was a teenager but I realised that actually most people just don’t care enough about us. We’re just another football team from just another town.

Commentators, pundits, officials… they are not biased against us.
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I don't disagree but I don't see how some of the comments are "spot on".

I disagree that all the pressure is on us. It's not a free hit for Coventry at all. This might be the best chance they have to get to the Premier League in a decade or more. Whereas we are more likely to get other chances if we dont do it this time.

Based on that you could argue it's as much a free hit for us as it is for them. Except the reality it is it's not a free hit for either side.

It's a play off semi final between two sides that finished a place apart in the table. There's no massive underdog. We have an edge because it's at home and our home record is exceptional. But it's a one off game against a very well organised side with some dangerous players.

In fact saying it's a free hit for Coventry is a bit disrespectful to them IMO. Maybe the media bias is against them after all 🧐😉
 
Uwefuchs said:
I've heard the Coventry fans talk about all the pressure being on us and it being a free hit and its just absolute nonsense.

The game is equally huge to both teams, we're both 2 wins away from the Premier league so its not like neither team have nothing to play for.

A free hit is something like Everton's home game last weekend against Man City, they are massive underdogs, expected to lose and they get another bite of the cherry next weekend.

If Coventry lose, they'll lose Gyokeres who is their main outlet and maybe another couple of players. They might not get another chance as good as this for a while, obviously we could equally have the same things to lose.

And if the pressure is all on us and Coventry have nothing to lose why did they play like they did on Sunday? Did they look like a team with nothing to lose?

A team under no pressure and with a free hit would come here and take us on on Wednesday but do you really think that will happen?

Its just a lazy narrative used by the media and used by the Coventry fans to make themselves feel better. The pressure is on both teams, its just who deals with it better.
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Beat me to it while I was still typing! 👍
 
viv_andersons_nana said:
You’re arguing about something different.

Like it or not, Boro going up this season would be the least interesting thing to come out of the playoffs. To an outside observer. We were tipped to go up and spent a big chunk of cash - again.

The others: Sunderland have been in the third division and have got into the playoffs in their first season back, Coventry have been down to the fourth tier and the edge of bankruptcy, and been homeless for two seasons, and Luton have been down to the fifth tier(!) and the edge of bankruptcy, slowly grinding their way back and finishing 3rd with one of the smallest budgets in the league. Boro finished 7th last season.

That’s not to say there isn’t anything interesting about Boro’s story because there clearly is - Carrick has done a fantastic job and we, for the most part, play really entertaining, progressive football that is a pleasure to watch. But in comparison to the other three clubs and their recent histories, stories, narratives - which is the important thing here, let’s face it, when discussing TV companies and pundits - the Boro moving from 7th to 4th just doesn’t have the same sense of intrigue to it.

Luton were there last year but they’re still an amazing story because they’ve repeated it, with a tiny budget. Coventry are a similar story to Luton but a bigger club. Sunderland are in their first season back. Boro are the favourites for the tie tomorrow.

Acknowledging that there is slightly more intrigue about the other three clubs involved this season, or saying there’s less pressure on them because of what they’ve spent, where they’ve come from, etc - is just not the same thing as being biased.

You read this board and its amazing how determined people are to find an anti-Boro agenda when there just isn’t one. Pundits and journos may get their facts wrong at times but they get them wrong about all clubs outside the top six or seven, and even then it’s touch and go. I used to think everyone had a grudge against Boro when I was a teenager but I realised that actually most people just don’t care enough about us. We’re just another football team from just another town.

Commentators, pundits, officials… they are not biased against us.
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Viv I don’t disagree with any of that and I wasn’t arguing against that.

I focussed on the comment that this is a free hit for Coventry…it isn’t. They’re very much in it and it isn’t an “a well” if they fail. Their fans will expect them to throw everything at us and score goals. They think their style suits us and we can’t score against them.
 
Not sure how much stock I'd put in past results on this.

We only failed to score against one team this season, and that was Rotherham.

I don't think anybody would be suggesting that it was set up perfectly for Rotherham if we were magically playing them tomorrow.
 
WilliamMunny said:
No it isn't. Do you think both teams were priced up at 10/11 initially and the weight of money has changed the odds? That's not how it works.
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Odds are based on risk to the bookies based on bets placed. More money has been put on Boro, that’s not a huge surprise as we finished higher and are now at home. It doesn’t reflect reality some deep analytical thought and expert opinion, just populism.
 
BoroMart said:
That’s based on your average Joe putting money on it. Bookies never lose people are wrong
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To qualify for the final boro are 1.48 and Coventry are 2.9. This is betfair and it isn't average Joe's. Betfair markets are as close as you can get to a true price.

These might move a bit before kick off tomorrow but not significantly.

Boro are short priced favourites and as implied chance it is 67% with Coventry having an implied chance of 33%.
 
Laughing said:
To qualify for the final boro are 1.48 and Coventry are 2.9. This is betfair and it isn't average Joe's. Betfair markets are as close as you can get to a true price.

These might move a bit before kick off tomorrow but not significantly.

Boro are short priced favourites and as implied chance it is 67% with Coventry having an implied chance of 33%.
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It’s still just risk management, that’s how bookies work. That’s the business model.
 
BoroMart said:
Odds are based on risk to the bookies based on bets placed. More money has been put on Boro, that’s not a huge surprise as we finished higher and are now at home. It doesn’t reflect reality some deep analytical thought and expert opinion, just populism.
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This demonstrates that you don't understand how modern markets work, mart. Bookies don't price events exchanges do.
 
If sky have a preferred narrative because it makes a fairy tale story then there is bound to be some bias be it unconscious.
 
Laughing said:
This demonstrates that you don't understand how modern markets work, mart. Bookies don't price events exchanges do.
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It’s always been risk management based. The more money is piled on one side, the more the odds change to reduce any further risk and to promote the under dog as a bet with higher returns. This balances out the risk, and the built in profit on the odds allows the bookies to win over a weekend
 
BoroMart said:
It’s always been risk management based. The more money is piled on one side, the more the odds change to reduce any further risk and to promote the under dog as a bet with higher returns. This balances out the risk, and the built in profit on the odds allows the bookies to win over a weekend
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That was true 20 years ago, and is marginally true on-course. Exchanges guide the price now, not bookmakers.

More money on one side of the book than the other moves the price, this much is true. Betfair is considered to be very accurate at calculating the real odds of sporting events. This is a fact Mart and has been proven countless times in the millions of events they have formed markets for.

If betfair markets suggest boro's chances of qualifying from the tie are priced at 1.48, then its very accurate to about 5 or 6 ticks.
 
Riverside is a very jittery home crowd and that expects to win.. Coventry only need 1 away goal and suddenly we're under incredible pressure.
 
BoroMart said:
Odds are based on risk to the bookies based on bets placed. More money has been put on Boro, that’s not a huge surprise as we finished higher and are now at home. It doesn’t reflect reality some deep analytical thought and expert opinion, just populism.
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That's only true once that particular market is open. If any bookmaker priced Man City and Real Madrid at 10/11 each to qualify on Wednesday night, there would be a deluge of big bets on Man City, until the price reached a more realistic level, such as the 2/7 currently available. That price may change over the next 32 hours, but it won't be substantially different come kick off time. Certainly there's no chance of Real Madrid going off as favourites.

The same applies to the Boro game. If the bookies have mis-priced it then money will go down on the over-priced team. But they have to make a market before they accept any bets and all of the bookies decided to install us as fairly strong favourites to progress after Sunday.
 
Laughing said:
More money on one side of the book than the other moves the price, this much is true.
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that's my point.

Laughing said:
If betfair markets suggest boro's chances of qualifying from the tie are priced at 1.48, then its very accurate to about 5 or 6 ticks.
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real world likelihood of one side winning has too many variables and unknowns for that level of accuracy. Especially in a low scoring game like football where one poor ref decision can change it.
 
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