The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 99,652 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 109,133
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 8.1% to 138,264 per day, following 6.8% decrease yesterday (and 8th daily decrease in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 27.7% lower than one week ago (from 22.0% lower yesterday) and 12.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 2.4% higher yesterday and 74.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 1,955 new admissions to English hospitals in 24-hour period, slightly down from yesterday's 2,127
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals decreases by 1.3% to 1,988 per day, following 0.2% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals is 1.0% lower than one week ago (from 1.3% lower yesterday) and 25.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 40.9% higher yesterday and 113.4% higher 7 days ago)
• 16,537 Covid patients in English hospitals, down from yesterday's 16,716
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals decreases by 1.1%, following 1.0% decrease yesterday (and 4th consecutive daily decrease)
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals is 2.3% higher than one week ago (from 4.1% higher yesterday) and 33.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 46.0% higher yesterday and 119.4% higher 7 days ago)
• 270 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 335 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 2.2% to 266.9 per day, following 6.0% increase yesterday (and 8th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 66.8% higher than one week ago (from 67.0% higher yesterday) and 143.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 160.6% higher yesterday and 38.3% higher 7 days ago)

First instance of new daily cases reported being below 100,000 since 27th December.
 
Andy_W said:
Back below 100k today, admissions look topped out at 2500 per day, and deaths look like they've stopped increasing.

I wonder how much of an effect Molnupiravir has had on the deaths.

Might be on the home straight now.
Click to expand...

Not sure that deaths have stopped increasing just yet. There is a chance (but not certain) that the 7-day average for reported deaths may fall tomorrow, as last Saturday's figure was relatively high. However, if you look at deaths by actual date, the 7-day average is still increasing by 3-4% per day.
 
Billy Horner said:
Not sure that deaths have stopped increasing just yet. There is a chance (but not certain) that the 7-day average for reported deaths may fall tomorrow, as last Saturday's figure was relatively high. However, if you look at deaths by actual date, the 7-day average is still increasing by 3-4% per day.
Click to expand...
They will begin to fall shortly though Billy, if not tomorrow then soon.

Hopefully, given the lack of restrictions and the time of year, we are in the finishing straight.
 
Thank the lord for all these parties otherwise the blonde bombshell would be on a charm offensive proclaiming how he saved Christmas and kept England open!!!!
 
Billy Horner said:
Not sure that deaths have stopped increasing just yet. There is a chance (but not certain) that the 7-day average for reported deaths may fall tomorrow, as last Saturday's figure was relatively high. However, if you look at deaths by actual date, the 7-day average is still increasing by 3-4% per day.
Click to expand...
Yeah I've not been paying much attention over the last week or so to be honest, just had a quick look today. The deaths seem to be flattening on the "by date reported", which seems about right with 29th being the highest admissions date and that's been pretty flat since, lagging the cases etc. The deaths (and 7 day av increase) are still baked in to a degree, working against the rises which came fast before.

Cases started to take a nosedive form the 4th, so hopefully admissions start to tail off in a few days.

The test positivity is creeping down for the North East too (albeit from 40%), and number of tests looks like it's coming down too.

I think we're over the worst of it, just hoping we don't get any more curveballs.
 
Laughing said:
They will begin to fall shortly though Billy, if not tomorrow then soon.

Hopefully, given the lack of restrictions and the time of year, we are in the finishing straight.
Click to expand...
My only slight concern is everyone is like a hermit for the two weeks after NYE, with regards to the most at risk places, so this may be dulling things, but the drop off has been massive, which we knew would happen, just were not exactly sure when.

Schools are open (which are also high risk) but they all took a hammering before Christmas, and they won't be susceptible again that quickly.
 
Andy_W said:
My only slight concern is everyone is like a hermit for the two weeks after NYE, with regards to the most at risk places, so this may be dulling things, but the drop off has been massive, which we knew would happen, just were not exactly sure when.

Schools are open (which are also high risk) but they all took a hammering before Christmas, and they won't be susceptible again that quickly.
Click to expand...
My main fear at this point, is not so much omicron, but another variant that sets us back.

Whilst we have thought it was the end, last spring for example when we had made a good start on vaccinations. I just can't see, short of another more deadly variant, that we won't be pretty much done by springtime.

I do hope that we don't get into round after round of vaccinations. It's not sustainable and for every fresh round there will be a drop off of participants. I don't know how long the third jab is expected to last, but I dont think it will be the expected 6 months or more.
 
Laughing said:
My main fear at this point, is not so much omicron, but another variant that sets us back.

Whilst we have thought it was the end, last spring for example when we had made a good start on vaccinations. I just can't see, short of another more deadly variant, that we won't be pretty much done by springtime.

I do hope that we don't get into round after round of vaccinations. It's not sustainable and for every fresh round there will be a drop off of participants. I don't know how long the third jab is expected to last, but I dont think it will be the expected 6 months or more.
Click to expand...
Ah I'm not that concerned about that, this was the last test for me. Most are heavily jabbed up now, there's loads of infection immunity, and this wave was absolutely massive, but hit the low hospitalisation levels of the models, which is as good as we could have hoped.

I think I read It's also moved more away from the lungs, towards the upper respiratory area, which is easier to treat, and we've got some good antivirals now too, which will have had a load of testing and be fully rolled out by autumn.

I think there might be a minor wave over winter and think the older folk will get a jab top up around autumn, but I think it will head towards something like mid/ bad flu years, and it will still outcompete flu, so there won't be many excess deaths. Although saying that, Omicron is so quick that it won't rely on seasonality, but will burn through everyone quick, so variants will find it extremely difficult to take hold.

I didn't think we were at the end last spring, there wasn't enough infection/ vaccine immunity/ antivirals. I did think we were getting to near HIT with Delta though, but the transmissibility of this was mental compared to Delta, it literally plugged every gap there was..

I just don't see us getting something more transmissible than Omicron, and can't see us ever getting hit again like Alpha or Delta for the damage caused. Something more harmful may come about, but it will hit a wall of previous infection/ vaccine protection, and the T-Cells will be good enough to fight it off.

It's not over for the ROW mind, and there's still a long way to go with that.

Our battle now (once this gets to <20k cases) is to sort out this NHS backlog, but I don't see our clowns in charge sorting that out anytime soon.
 
Andy_W said:
Ah I'm not that concerned about that, this was the last test for me. Most are heavily jabbed up now, there's loads of infection immunity, and this wave was absolutely massive, but hit the low hospitalisation levels of the models, which is as good as we could have hoped.

I think I read It's also moved more away from the lungs, towards the upper respiratory area, which is easier to treat, and we've got some good antivirals now too, which will have had a load of testing and be fully rolled out by autumn.

I think there might be a minor wave over winter and think the older folk will get a jab top up around autumn, but I think it will head towards something like mid/ bad flu years, and it will still outcompete flu, so there won't be many excess deaths. Although saying that, Omicron is so quick that it won't rely on seasonality, but will burn through everyone quick, so variants will find it extremely difficult to take hold.

I didn't think we were at the end last spring, there wasn't enough infection/ vaccine immunity/ antivirals. I did think we were getting to near HIT with Delta though, but the transmissibility of this was mental compared to Delta, it literally plugged every gap there was..

I just don't see us getting something more transmissible than Omicron, and can't see us ever getting hit again like Alpha or Delta for the damage caused. Something more harmful may come about, but it will hit a wall of previous infection/ vaccine protection, and the T-Cells will be good enough to fight it off.

It's not over for the ROW mind, and there's still a long way to go with that.

Our battle now (once this gets to <20k cases) is to sort out this NHS backlog, but I don't see our clowns in charge sorting that out anytime soon.
Click to expand...
We can hope. The issue with variants is one that by passes our immunity. It won't have to out compete omicron then.

We do need to stop concentrating on the uk and vaccinate the rest of the world to inhibit variants. Neither Johnson nor any other leader seems particularly keen on that at the minute. Very short sighted in my opinion.
 
Laughing said:
We can hope. The issue with variants is one that by passes our immunity. It won't have to out compete omicron then.

We do need to stop concentrating on the uk and vaccinate the rest of the world to inhibit variants. Neither Johnson nor any other leader seems particularly keen on that at the minute. Very short sighted in my opinion.
Click to expand...
I think even if they get passed the immunity and still infect, they will do far less damage due to the increase in protection from hospitalisations we've had after each wave and vaccination, and we're obviously getting better at treatment/ antivirals. It's probably already hammered everyone who was susceptible, and most who would have been in big bother has either fought it off or died. Would be interesting to know how many re-infections have killed, I bet it's not many (comparatively to what we've had).

I just don't see us going back to square one, or even square 8, I think it's solved as much as it can be, and something we'll just have to accept now. There wasn't much appetite for more restrictive measures in December, and there will be less and less after each wave, no matter what that wave could bring. I think most now accept that we've fought this as long as we can, and will pretty much go into everyman for themselves mode.

I'd still happily wear a mask in locations where it's practical mind, but I don't consider that a restriction. I also now don't see any further need for vaccination mandates for the public or NHS staff, the wave has gone through now, anyone not vaccinated has been exposed countless times, so everyone's equal now I think (albeit some are still fools).
 
Think we will see rates fall right across the country now that PCR tests are not required if you don't have symptoms
 
Nobby_Barnes said:
Looks to me like they've stayed the same.....
Click to expand...
I think that’s down to the fact they report 3 days at once (after each weekend).

the number was 900 on 4th January, and if you open the link, and set the graph to the last month only, you can clearly see the trend is downward, although the high deaths we‘re experiencing will be contributing. This downward trend (to me) is a valid signal that less people are getting to this stage of clinical dependence, which suggests Omicron’s severity, vaccines and other clinical interventions are increasing survivability.
I’m not an expert, by any means
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 94,432 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 84,429
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 3.8% to 96,284 per day, following 7.6% decrease yesterday (and 12th daily decrease in the past 13 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 38.9% lower than one week ago (from 41.7% lower yesterday) and 45.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 39.1% lower yesterday and 38.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 1,768 new admissions to English hospitals in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,604
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals decreases by 1.5% to 1,892 per day, following 1.9% decrease yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for admissions to English hospitals is 6.2% lower than one week ago (from 4.1% lower yesterday) and 4.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 1.2% higher yesterday and 69.4% higher 7 days ago)
• 16,218 Covid patients in English hospitals, down from yesterday's 16,621
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals decreases by 2.4%, following 1.5% increase yesterday
• Number of Covid patients in English hospitals is 4.3% lower than one week ago (from 2.9% lower yesterday) and 7.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 17.0% higher yesterday and 77.4% higher 7 days ago)
• 438 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 85 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 3.2% to 272.0 per day, following 0.5% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 14.8% higher than one week ago (from 38.8% higher yesterday) and 105.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 105.5% higher yesterday and 182.1% higher 7 days ago)

7-day average for new cases below 100,000 per day for first time since 23rd December.

Highest reported new deaths since 24th February 2021.
 
Billy what's your view on the sustained high death figure despite every other metric its dropping? Just 10 days behind?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top