The end?

Druss_The_Legend said:
With them being mercenaries they aren't protected under the usual treaties and "niceties" of war, and with the atrocities that particular group have committed I'm not sure they will be getting any home comforts when captured.
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Absolutely. It's understandable - but not right - for judge/jury/executioner punishment to be dished out.

War is hell☹️
 
Think Girkin needs to keep away from windows.
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"Something is definitely not well in Russia.

Strelkov was said to have been accused by prosecutors for both having discredited the army, and to have embessled funds for the war effort.
This turned out to not be true, at least not yet.
Instead it was a few female Russians (probably widows) who had lodged complaints against Strelkov.
Strelkov himself answered this and stated that he had not been contacted by any official agency, and defiantly stated that he would not shut up from telling the truth.
He also said that he had filed all documents in regards of the aid with the government agencies.
He then stated again that it was time to pull out of Ukraine.

Prigozhin followed this up with saying almost the same thing.
He said that they may take Bakhmut, but that after that Russia should stop all offensive manouvres, and that it was likely that Russia would then be pushed out of Ukraine, and that it might be time to pull out of Ukraine.
Regardless, it is more and more clear that Wagner inside of Ukraine is a spent force.
They have gone from covering a 90km frontier down to only 5km.
General wisdom is that this is due to Ukraine having depleted the forces, this is definitely true for the convicts.
But, for the real well trained Wagners it is not entirely true, many of those have been pulled out and sent either to Africa, or back into Russia.
My take is that Prigozhin is getting ready for what is coming, and having a private army nearby is to his advantage.
It is here also good to know that Wagner are still recruiting inside of Russia, but those troops are not sent to Ukraine.

There are also reports that the professional side of the army (Gerasimov, Surovikin, etc) want to pull out of Donbas completely and divert all resources into defending the approach to Crimea (Southern Kherson and Zhaprozhzhia), and Crimea itself.
They want to defend that at all cost.
The political side of the army that is headed by Soyghurt with the backing of Lavrov and Peskov want to continue the all out attack from the current frontlines.

All of the Victory Day Parades except the one in Moscow has now been cancelled it seems.
In Russian channels there is a lot of talk about the one in Moscow being likely to be targeted by Ukraine, and that it might not be healthy to be around it.
See my previous musing on why the offensive is likely to start ahead of the 9th of May.

There are more and more intercepted phone calls of Russian mobiks saying that Russia can no longer pay their salaries and that they are going to be pulled out of Ukraine and be demobilised. If it was one or two I would just say hopefull Russians, but with dozens each day calling back home to say that they will be going home... I am not so sure any longer.

Belgorod
There has been rumours for about a week that Ukraine is about to do a major attack against Russia and take Belgorod, Bryansk & Kursk oblasts.
Personally I have always had this option on my mind since it is strategically sound to put pressure on Russia, but since the US is against it I have always put it on the back burner as a late stage option.

So, I was not surprised really when this rumour started to spread.
What did surprise me was the source of that rumour.
About a week ago Naryshkin and Bortnikov sent out a memo from Surovikin on the subject to the top ranks in Moscow.

In the memo it states clearly why and how Ukraine would attack and take the Oblasts.
How is due to the lack of troops available to defend the area, it is by far the least well protected part of the frontline.
In other words, it would be an easy catch for Ukraine.
Then they went on to state that they saw large accumulations of Ukrainian troops in this direction filled to the brim with weastern tech, and the not so small fact that Ukraine are performing large and deep ranging artillery fire missions into all 3 Oblasts.

The why is also stated.
That Ukraine would take them, and offer them back to Russia for leaving all of Ukraine including Crimea.
It is clearly noted that Russia would be forced to accept the terms and that the war then would be over.

The report then goes on in detail of the Surovikin plan.
It entails moving remaining troops from Moscow and St Petersburg towards the border as a deep reserve force, and to move 40 percent of the troops in Donbas out to take positions along the border, and finally to move all Russian soldiers out of Belarus to the border.

According to "Sauces" in Moscow Soyghurt, Peskov and Lavrov vehemently opposed this, but that the Siloviki and Gerasimov supported it...
Note that I up above pointed to the professionals wanting to pull out, and the politicals not wanting to do that. It may be a part of an internal convoluted campaign to set that up.

Conclusion
Russia is turning into a powderkegg as different "parties" are pulling in different directions, and some are quietly getting ready for a coup, or for civil war.
I am certain that the professional army guys want to pull out to avoid a civil war.
If they are back home they could easily in a very heavy handed way cut any attempt at that short, especially if they have the backing of the Siloviki.

Who are then the players?
Well, let us start with Lavrov, Peskov and Soyghurt (LPS)
The are increasingly looking like they are without support from both the Siloviki and the Army.
They might try to ally themselves with the following 3 groupings.

Kadyrov, he is definitely the type that would go for it if he sees a chance for succeeding, problem is just that he has problems at home, with several reports of his troops having been attacked by someone or something, be it internal in Chechnya or outside forces.
This has forced him to pull back home almost all Kadyrovites from Ukraine.
He is a natural ally of LPS, and might see them in turn as a way to legitimising his rule of he succeeds in taking power.

Prigozhin, deeply hated by everyone in the military and among the Siloviki.
Sort of "pall" with Kadyrov, and might become useful for LPS in a powerstruggle.
Prigozhin is though seen as someone who could easily turn on them if he gains on that.

Strelkov, oh boy... where to even begin?
He has set himself up as a way to return to the Good Old Days of Russia pre 1914.
This has somehow struck a chord with a large part of the Russian population, also him being open, critical, and factually honest, has made him seen by many as a breath of fresh air.
He is openly supported by the Siloviki.
And he has indeed criticised the Russian army, but in a way that puts the blame squarely on "the politicians" and Putin. This has made the army neutral to him.
In other words, he is critical of the LPS grouping and would sweap them aside as dungflies if he got to power.
He is in many ways far shrewder than the others.
He has a political party, and a political movement.
He seems to be gunning for the general election of 2024, but could theoretically act prior to that moment since he is backed by the Siloviki intelligence armies.
Unless LPS somehow succeeds in having him arrested, and that would be hard indeed since nobody knows where he is, he will be the main force if Russia fails in Ukraine, or if Russia falls internaly."
 
TeessideCleveland said:
Canadian news article has a different slant
Click to expand...
borolad259 said:
"Something is definitely not well in Russia.

Strelkov was said to have been accused by prosecutors for both having discredited the army, and to have embessled funds for the war effort.
This turned out to not be true, at least not yet.
Instead it was a few female Russians (probably widows) who had lodged complaints against Strelkov.
Strelkov himself answered this and stated that he had not been contacted by any official agency, and defiantly stated that he would not shut up from telling the truth.
He also said that he had filed all documents in regards of the aid with the government agencies.
He then stated again that it was time to pull out of Ukraine.

Prigozhin followed this up with saying almost the same thing.
He said that they may take Bakhmut, but that after that Russia should stop all offensive manouvres, and that it was likely that Russia would then be pushed out of Ukraine, and that it might be time to pull out of Ukraine.
Regardless, it is more and more clear that Wagner inside of Ukraine is a spent force.
They have gone from covering a 90km frontier down to only 5km.
General wisdom is that this is due to Ukraine having depleted the forces, this is definitely true for the convicts.
But, for the real well trained Wagners it is not entirely true, many of those have been pulled out and sent either to Africa, or back into Russia.
My take is that Prigozhin is getting ready for what is coming, and having a private army nearby is to his advantage.
It is here also good to know that Wagner are still recruiting inside of Russia, but those troops are not sent to Ukraine.

There are also reports that the professional side of the army (Gerasimov, Surovikin, etc) want to pull out of Donbas completely and divert all resources into defending the approach to Crimea (Southern Kherson and Zhaprozhzhia), and Crimea itself.
They want to defend that at all cost.
The political side of the army that is headed by Soyghurt with the backing of Lavrov and Peskov want to continue the all out attack from the current frontlines.

All of the Victory Day Parades except the one in Moscow has now been cancelled it seems.
In Russian channels there is a lot of talk about the one in Moscow being likely to be targeted by Ukraine, and that it might not be healthy to be around it.
See my previous musing on why the offensive is likely to start ahead of the 9th of May.

There are more and more intercepted phone calls of Russian mobiks saying that Russia can no longer pay their salaries and that they are going to be pulled out of Ukraine and be demobilised. If it was one or two I would just say hopefull Russians, but with dozens each day calling back home to say that they will be going home... I am not so sure any longer.

Belgorod
There has been rumours for about a week that Ukraine is about to do a major attack against Russia and take Belgorod, Bryansk & Kursk oblasts.
Personally I have always had this option on my mind since it is strategically sound to put pressure on Russia, but since the US is against it I have always put it on the back burner as a late stage option.

So, I was not surprised really when this rumour started to spread.
What did surprise me was the source of that rumour.
About a week ago Naryshkin and Bortnikov sent out a memo from Surovikin on the subject to the top ranks in Moscow.

In the memo it states clearly why and how Ukraine would attack and take the Oblasts.
How is due to the lack of troops available to defend the area, it is by far the least well protected part of the frontline.
In other words, it would be an easy catch for Ukraine.
Then they went on to state that they saw large accumulations of Ukrainian troops in this direction filled to the brim with weastern tech, and the not so small fact that Ukraine are performing large and deep ranging artillery fire missions into all 3 Oblasts.

The why is also stated.
That Ukraine would take them, and offer them back to Russia for leaving all of Ukraine including Crimea.
It is clearly noted that Russia would be forced to accept the terms and that the war then would be over.

The report then goes on in detail of the Surovikin plan.
It entails moving remaining troops from Moscow and St Petersburg towards the border as a deep reserve force, and to move 40 percent of the troops in Donbas out to take positions along the border, and finally to move all Russian soldiers out of Belarus to the border.

According to "Sauces" in Moscow Soyghurt, Peskov and Lavrov vehemently opposed this, but that the Siloviki and Gerasimov supported it...
Note that I up above pointed to the professionals wanting to pull out, and the politicals not wanting to do that. It may be a part of an internal convoluted campaign to set that up.

Conclusion
Russia is turning into a powderkegg as different "parties" are pulling in different directions, and some are quietly getting ready for a coup, or for civil war.
I am certain that the professional army guys want to pull out to avoid a civil war.
If they are back home they could easily in a very heavy handed way cut any attempt at that short, especially if they have the backing of the Siloviki.

Who are then the players?
Well, let us start with Lavrov, Peskov and Soyghurt (LPS)
The are increasingly looking like they are without support from both the Siloviki and the Army.
They might try to ally themselves with the following 3 groupings.

Kadyrov, he is definitely the type that would go for it if he sees a chance for succeeding, problem is just that he has problems at home, with several reports of his troops having been attacked by someone or something, be it internal in Chechnya or outside forces.
This has forced him to pull back home almost all Kadyrovites from Ukraine.
He is a natural ally of LPS, and might see them in turn as a way to legitimising his rule of he succeeds in taking power.

Prigozhin, deeply hated by everyone in the military and among the Siloviki.
Sort of "pall" with Kadyrov, and might become useful for LPS in a powerstruggle.
Prigozhin is though seen as someone who could easily turn on them if he gains on that.

Strelkov, oh boy... where to even begin?
He has set himself up as a way to return to the Good Old Days of Russia pre 1914.
This has somehow struck a chord with a large part of the Russian population, also him being open, critical, and factually honest, has made him seen by many as a breath of fresh air.
He is openly supported by the Siloviki.
And he has indeed criticised the Russian army, but in a way that puts the blame squarely on "the politicians" and Putin. This has made the army neutral to him.
In other words, he is critical of the LPS grouping and would sweap them aside as dungflies if he got to power.
He is in many ways far shrewder than the others.
He has a political party, and a political movement.
He seems to be gunning for the general election of 2024, but could theoretically act prior to that moment since he is backed by the Siloviki intelligence armies.
Unless LPS somehow succeeds in having him arrested, and that would be hard indeed since nobody knows where he is, he will be the main force if Russia fails in Ukraine, or if Russia falls internaly."
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Interesting
 
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I never imagined taking RF land until now. It’s raising the stakes, but it’s logical. Risky? Yes.
 
Operation Mincemeat.

I would be very surprised at Ukraine driving into Russia, especially as it could be portrayed as an attack on Russia perhaps validating the use of "weapons of mass destruction"?

However, it makes sense to encourage the Russians to worry about such a move in order to further stretch their resources away from where the attack will take place.
 
Muttley said:
Operation Mincemeat.

I would be very surprised at Ukraine driving into Russia, especially as it could be portrayed as an attack on Russia perhaps validating the use of "weapons of mass destruction"?

However, it makes sense to encourage the Russians to worry about such a move in order to further stretch their resources away from where the attack will take place.
Click to expand...

According to our man, 60% of Ukrainian fire missions in the last two weeks have been aimed at the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk oblasts. It is the least well defended portion of the front line. Surovikin had seen it coming, constructing defences and mining, whilst stationing holding troops there. No-one else, it seems, took it seriously, so he troops were moved south. He thinks it may be diversionary, but a 50% chance that Ukraine will just waltz through the meagre defences there and then use Belgorod and Kursk oblasts as bargaining chips vs Donbas and Crimea.

He thinks the softening up may be to persuade the local population to flee.

The other option is, as you observe, to persuade Russia that this is the plan so that they have to move troops back from Donbas to defend.

Imagine the impact on Victory Day if Ukraine takes a couple of Oblasts.
 
great speech & quotes from the guy just sentenced to 25 years for speaking out - what a brave & heroic individual

"In their last statements to the court defendants usually ask for an acquittal. For a person who has not committed any crimes, acquittal would be the only fair verdict. But I do not ask this court for anything. I know the verdict. I knew it a year ago when I saw people in black uniforms and black masks running after my car in the rearview mirror. Such is the price for speaking up in Russia today.

But I also know that the day will come when the darkness over our country will dissipate. When black will be called black and white will be called white; when at the official level it will be recognised that two times two is still four; when a war will be called a war, and a usurper a usurper; and when those who kindled and unleashed this war, rather than those who tried to stop it, will be recognised as criminals.

This day will come as inevitably as spring follows even the coldest winter. And then our society will open its eyes and be horrified by what terrible crimes were committed on its behalf. From this realisation, from this reflection, the long, difficult but vital path toward the recovery and restoration of Russia, its return to the community of civilised countries, will begin."
 
afcb_acklam said:
great speech & quotes from the guy just sentenced to 25 years for speaking out - what a brave & heroic individual

"In their last statements to the court defendants usually ask for an acquittal. For a person who has not committed any crimes, acquittal would be the only fair verdict. But I do not ask this court for anything. I know the verdict. I knew it a year ago when I saw people in black uniforms and black masks running after my car in the rearview mirror. Such is the price for speaking up in Russia today.

But I also know that the day will come when the darkness over our country will dissipate. When black will be called black and white will be called white; when at the official level it will be recognised that two times two is still four; when a war will be called a war, and a usurper a usurper; and when those who kindled and unleashed this war, rather than those who tried to stop it, will be recognised as criminals.

This day will come as inevitably as spring follows even the coldest winter. And then our society will open its eyes and be horrified by what terrible crimes were committed on its behalf. From this realisation, from this reflection, the long, difficult but vital path toward the recovery and restoration of Russia, its return to the community of civilised countries, will begin."
Click to expand...
What dignity.
 
An incursion onto Russian soil would be a mistake IMO.
It would be the excuse for Putin to escalate but worse would give him the opportunity to galvanise the nation and may lead to a mass mobilisation.

It's one thing Russians dieing in their thousands with a proxy invasion but quite another an 'heroic death' defending Russia itself.
 
afcb_acklam said:
great speech & quotes from the guy just sentenced to 25 years for speaking out - what a brave & heroic individual

"In their last statements to the court defendants usually ask for an acquittal. For a person who has not committed any crimes, acquittal would be the only fair verdict. But I do not ask this court for anything. I know the verdict. I knew it a year ago when I saw people in black uniforms and black masks running after my car in the rearview mirror. Such is the price for speaking up in Russia today.

But I also know that the day will come when the darkness over our country will dissipate. When black will be called black and white will be called white; when at the official level it will be recognised that two times two is still four; when a war will be called a war, and a usurper a usurper; and when those who kindled and unleashed this war, rather than those who tried to stop it, will be recognised as criminals.

This day will come as inevitably as spring follows even the coldest winter. And then our society will open its eyes and be horrified by what terrible crimes were committed on its behalf. From this realisation, from this reflection, the long, difficult but vital path toward the recovery and restoration of Russia, its return to the community of civilised countries, will begin."
Click to expand...

Kara-Murza may end up being a figurehead for dissent or opposition. A much more savoury option than Navalny.
 
"Russia has just started to mass evacuate residents on a line from Vasilyevka via Tokmak to Polohyi in expectation of a massive offensive starting within the next 72 hours.
According to the Russians mass shelling from the Ukrainian side will start either tonight or tomorrow night.
All Russian civilian services will stop at 18.00 this evening.

Intercepted phone calls from the frontline from frontline soldiers calling home to say goodbye after having been told the cell service is disconnected at 18.00 hours.
Panic is exploding down the Russian lines.

I am fairly certain that the Russians are spot on, or very close to the truth."
 
borolad259 said:
"Russia has just started to mass evacuate residents on a line from Vasilyevka via Tokmak to Polohyi in expectation of a massive offensive starting within the next 72 hours.
According to the Russians mass shelling from the Ukrainian side will start either tonight or tomorrow night.
All Russian civilian services will stop at 18.00 this evening.

Intercepted phone calls from the frontline from frontline soldiers calling home to say goodbye after having been told the cell service is disconnected at 18.00 hours.
Panic is exploding down the Russian lines.

I am fairly certain that the Russians are spot on, or very close to the truth."
Click to expand...

Has Zelensky recently got a new phone?
 
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