The end?

Well, it's Friday ... I don't know how he has time to write this ****, he/we have been in meetings all day.

"Mental Dissociation is something we all can feel from time to time, being disconnected from the world and other people. It is only natural.
Problem come when people suffering from Dissociation, ie. are unable to relate to other people and the worldview is disconnected from reality. It is then called psychosis.

Problem is that we right now have an entire country suffering from Dissociation Disorder with the following psychosis. I am obviously talking about Russia.
It is caused by their entire worldview crashing down and a raving power vacuum.

In the eyes of almost all Russians they are a true Superpower and a great country with a god given right to rule over other countries. The first part was true decades ago, and the second part is a case of colonial psychopathy.
In reality they where at best a regional power with the ability to reach out globally towards other lesser powers.
And, there is no allowance in the modern world for colonialist imperial dreams and attitudes.
This causes a dissociation of rather stupendous nature as they discover that their worldview had nothing to do with reality.

Problem is that they are so far gone that as they discover what is real, they do not know how to handle it.
They are unable to admit that things are totally arsebuggered for them, and unable to deal with it in a rational way.

It is now clear to them that they have lost, they are even talking about it, and their impending group travel to Hague.
But, what is clear is that they do not know how to handle it.
Instead of sitting down and try to negotiate for some sort of negotiated peace limiting at least who will go to prison and the amount of restitution they all the time revent into psychosis.

This is obviously not helped at all by the power vacuum in Russia, there is no singular voice, or even group of people, running the show. This means that there are many voices proposing solutions to the problem.
In the end this might actually lead to Russia inventing democracy and pluralism, but that will be years in the making.
For now they are just acting even more disjointed and discombobulated (I love this word).

Here are the currently proposed solutions to their predicament:
  1. Mobilising another 300K soldiers without weapons and hope for a miracle. Duma
  2. Mobilising everyone and send them naked across the frontline. Okay, they will have regular clothes, but admit that it would be a sight to behold... The idea here is to somehow drench Ukraine in dead Russians. Propagandists
  3. Be stubborn and negotiate. Surovikin
  4. Drink Vodka and snort cocaine. Peskov
  5. Somehov force Ukraine to recognise Kherson, Crimea, Luhansk, Zhaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk as Russian Oblasts, and then negotiate for peace. Lavrov
  6. Negotiate for a settled peace, pay out the nostrils for decades, limiting the number of people sent to Hague, go and cry in the nearest forrest. Naryshkin
The first option has already been decided for January. It will obviously not help, but it will massage a few egos in the Duma.
The second option would crack Russia like an egg. Just the attempt at sending all of them to the front would end up with millions of Russians stuck on sidetracks across Russia starving to death. This most likely not what is going to happen.
The third option is happening as we speak. It is very clear now that this is what Surovikin is doing, hoping that someone in Moscow will start negotiating using the only bargaining chip they have. Being bloody stubborn in case they do not get something, at least Surovikin don't want to go to Hague... This is why he is not attacking anywhere and is spending so much effort on digging in.
The fourth option is popular in large circles of Moscow as the Siloviki are partying like not seen since Deccamerone. They see that it is the end of the world, and any debauchery is worth trying before it is to late.
Option five is just ludicruous and shows how far Lavrov have dropped down the deep end.
More and more are coming around to the Naryshkin view of things.

Personally I think it will be a merging of option 1, 3 and 6.
Surovikin is not stupid, he asked for 300 000 more Mobiks knowing it would at best delay the Ukrainian offensive. The Duma gave it to him, also knowing it would not produce any win. And Surovikin is hell bent on being stubborn using whatever he has left handing Ukraine a long shlog backwards to Russia.
That opens up for negotiations according to 6. In the end there are a lot of Russians who want immunity. Naryshkin, Surovikin and the Duma for one want it.

That leaves 3 that are not talking. Putin for rather obvious reasons, Patrushev and Soyghurt. No military is speaking now, they do not want to be associated with this shitfest, and Soyghurt is probably listening to them on the "shut up" part.
Patrushev is a tad uncomfy after someone torched his apartment and Naryshkin moved upwards into the sunlight due to this loss of face.
Regardless it is believed that Patrushev shares Naryshkins view, they are after all working with finding out what is real. Patrushev is though a raving hawk. Both of them obviously knows that they are buggered.

One thing is though clear, and that is that none of the Russian powerplayers have what it takes to take control.
The current theory is that Russia is heading towards a breakup, and that is why more and more Governors are setting up their own militias following Dondon Ramzans example.
Dondon Ramzan seems to be hellbent on waiting a bit, and then create his own country.
This is making a lot of Governors nervous since he has one of the 3 armies in Russia, and if the country breaks up many will be gobbled up by his forces.
Prigozhin is rapidly becoming a nobody after Surovikins dainty use of his rapists. Most of the Wagnerites are now dead in Bakhmut, so many that he is now recruiting soldiers openly in Central African Republic.

This obviously creates some questions...
Do we really want to keep Russia together?
How do we get control of the nukes?
How do we kill Dondon Ramzan?
What would be a bigger pain in the **** for Xi?

For now, we wait and see how the chips fall.
This ends the political part.

The US
In an act not seen since WWII it has been authorized to move technology from one producer and contracting other companies to produce the same product.
GMLRS and Himars will now be produced also by other suitable companies, doubling the production capacity in one go, and probably a lot more soon.
Boeing got a contract of delivering 10s of thousands of Himars compatible rockets that are cheaper and more longer ranged.
ALCOA, Atlas, and several others got contracts for almost ridiculous amounts of 155mm grenades and other ammunition.
Note, this is not needed for Ukraine as such. It is due to the west having rediscovered how much it takes to bump a big enemy off the chart.

Russia
If you have access to night time satellite imagery it might be worthwhile keeping track of Russian cities and towns in the hinterlands disappearing from "the map". The lack of maintenance is not helping, nor are the smoking incidents.

Frontlines
At Bakhmut Nothing New...
Behind the line safe from the mud artillery and tanks are lining up waiting for things to clear.
If Ukraine hit hard enough here it will be a major blow.

In Luhansk Ukraine are still manouvering into position taking village after village at high ground. Svatove is now more resembling a rat slowly being encircled and strangled by an anaconda.
In Zhaporizhzhia there has been a bit of manouvering too, as Ukraine are creating better positions. Also the artillery is slowly ramping up picking away at the Mobiks.

This leaves Kherson.
Surovikin has ordered the command and the civilian leaders to withdraw from Nova Kakhovka together with Russian civilians. Same with what remains of the Russians in Olechky after someone drove her Brigade through it after the confusion from the withdraval from North Kherson.
A couple of weeks of murderous Ukrainian artillery from the front, and a way to happy Brigadeer attacking their arses from behind was in the end a tad to much.
Unlike the other withdravals this was not according to Surovikins plan.
He misjudged how fast Ukraine could get the railroad bridge repaired and usable for armoured vehicles. He was thinking that Ukraine would repair it for rail, something that would have taken months.
Instead they just used a tank with a doser blade and shovelled the rail off the concrete bridge deck and went over with the rest of the brigade galumphing after... It was brilliantly daft, and they where gone into the steppes of Kherson in a jiffy leaving a few bewildered Russians behind.
And on top of that having Kinburn taken due to it not being reinforced enough.
Surovikin underrated the Ukrainians here, and that is a deadly mistake in war. He assumed they could not do what he could not do. Poop...
Leaving half of Southern Kherson behind is another deadly mistake on his part. Ukraine will just take that as a; Welcome as you please. And send in an entire army and plow on, the Nova Kakhovka dam is passable now... and the railbridge might not be ideal, but it is possible to run tanks and other stuff over if you have the nerves for it.

Conclusion
At a press conference in Moscow Lavrov sat, with only 13 viewers. Not even Russian state TV sent it out.
He was not allowed to the OSSE meeting to play with the big boys. Lavrov was cancelled.
It is what Russia has become. Not even ordinary Russians are watching them.

The vacuum is now so hard that anyone could drive a Death Star through the gates of Kremlin.
Question is who? If they do not get their **** together and undiscombobulate it will be Zelenskyy in August 2023.
I am though certain that some enterprising Russian will do it long before that.
As Konstantin is phrasing it, Tick Tock goes the crocodile it is coming closer.

I am still holding the 24th of this month as the end date.
It is though depending on Russia breaking down, and not being overly stubborn.
Military Russia is totally beat, we are now just waiting for the right weather conditions so that Ukraine can take a couple of Regions.
Right now it looks like Zhaporizhzhia, but Ukraine tends to do something else than the expected.
I say follow the Himars. Half of them are in Kherson, the rest are divided up among the rest.
Half of the 155mm barrel artillery is in Kherson. Their heaviest mechanised army corps is in Kherson.
Ukraines best commanders are in Kherson.
And, it is the easiest target to take right now.
This means that they will probably take Arkhangelsk or something. 🙂

If Bakhmut turns into a route, Luhansk is moving, and Kherson is largely taken and they are knockin on the gates of Crimea Russia will go home, and all of this is eminently doable before the 24th. Same with someone actually grabbing the reigns in Moscow and saying 'nuff, let's go.
Next peace date is between late february to late april. By then Russia is out of Ukraine regardless, and in August if they really intend to continue.
Circling back, now they have chips to play by offering to go home quietly. In April they do not have Chips. In Auguest they will lose entire Oblasts forever to a new very angry Superukraine...

It is here good to remember that it may end up with Ukraine having to enter Russia to save Russia... from whome is the question really.

Am I nervous that I may be wrong on the 24th? Obviously, in war though shalt not be overly cocky.
Problem is that I am using logic and math to it prognosticate the outcome, and I know I am often overly rational, and Russia is not rational.
I am quite open to having missed the human aspect of it. Question is if that makes me or Russia dissociated?"
 
I agree there should be no negotiations - the dictator's army need to be kicked out of every inch of Ukraine - including Crimea
Then negotiations can start about MASSIVE reparations

Screenshot_2022-12-02-23-28-45-63_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
Well, it's Friday ... I don't know how he has time to write this ****, he/we have been in meetings all day.

"Mental Dissociation is something we all can feel from time to time, being disconnected from the world and other people. It is only natural.
Problem come when people suffering from Dissociation, ie. are unable to relate to other people and the worldview is disconnected from reality. It is then called psychosis.

Problem is that we right now have an entire country suffering from Dissociation Disorder with the following psychosis. I am obviously talking about Russia.
It is caused by their entire worldview crashing down and a raving power vacuum.

In the eyes of almost all Russians they are a true Superpower and a great country with a god given right to rule over other countries. The first part was true decades ago, and the second part is a case of colonial psychopathy.
In reality they where at best a regional power with the ability to reach out globally towards other lesser powers.
And, there is no allowance in the modern world for colonialist imperial dreams and attitudes.
This causes a dissociation of rather stupendous nature as they discover that their worldview had nothing to do with reality.

Problem is that they are so far gone that as they discover what is real, they do not know how to handle it.
They are unable to admit that things are totally arsebuggered for them, and unable to deal with it in a rational way.

It is now clear to them that they have lost, they are even talking about it, and their impending group travel to Hague.
But, what is clear is that they do not know how to handle it.
Instead of sitting down and try to negotiate for some sort of negotiated peace limiting at least who will go to prison and the amount of restitution they all the time revent into psychosis.

This is obviously not helped at all by the power vacuum in Russia, there is no singular voice, or even group of people, running the show. This means that there are many voices proposing solutions to the problem.
In the end this might actually lead to Russia inventing democracy and pluralism, but that will be years in the making.
For now they are just acting even more disjointed and discombobulated (I love this word).

Here are the currently proposed solutions to their predicament:
  1. Mobilising another 300K soldiers without weapons and hope for a miracle. Duma
  2. Mobilising everyone and send them naked across the frontline. Okay, they will have regular clothes, but admit that it would be a sight to behold... The idea here is to somehow drench Ukraine in dead Russians. Propagandists
  3. Be stubborn and negotiate. Surovikin
  4. Drink Vodka and snort cocaine. Peskov
  5. Somehov force Ukraine to recognise Kherson, Crimea, Luhansk, Zhaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk as Russian Oblasts, and then negotiate for peace. Lavrov
  6. Negotiate for a settled peace, pay out the nostrils for decades, limiting the number of people sent to Hague, go and cry in the nearest forrest. Naryshkin
The first option has already been decided for January. It will obviously not help, but it will massage a few egos in the Duma.
The second option would crack Russia like an egg. Just the attempt at sending all of them to the front would end up with millions of Russians stuck on sidetracks across Russia starving to death. This most likely not what is going to happen.
The third option is happening as we speak. It is very clear now that this is what Surovikin is doing, hoping that someone in Moscow will start negotiating using the only bargaining chip they have. Being bloody stubborn in case they do not get something, at least Surovikin don't want to go to Hague... This is why he is not attacking anywhere and is spending so much effort on digging in.
The fourth option is popular in large circles of Moscow as the Siloviki are partying like not seen since Deccamerone. They see that it is the end of the world, and any debauchery is worth trying before it is to late.
Option five is just ludicruous and shows how far Lavrov have dropped down the deep end.
More and more are coming around to the Naryshkin view of things.

Personally I think it will be a merging of option 1, 3 and 6.
Surovikin is not stupid, he asked for 300 000 more Mobiks knowing it would at best delay the Ukrainian offensive. The Duma gave it to him, also knowing it would not produce any win. And Surovikin is hell bent on being stubborn using whatever he has left handing Ukraine a long shlog backwards to Russia.
That opens up for negotiations according to 6. In the end there are a lot of Russians who want immunity. Naryshkin, Surovikin and the Duma for one want it.

That leaves 3 that are not talking. Putin for rather obvious reasons, Patrushev and Soyghurt. No military is speaking now, they do not want to be associated with this shitfest, and Soyghurt is probably listening to them on the "shut up" part.
Patrushev is a tad uncomfy after someone torched his apartment and Naryshkin moved upwards into the sunlight due to this loss of face.
Regardless it is believed that Patrushev shares Naryshkins view, they are after all working with finding out what is real. Patrushev is though a raving hawk. Both of them obviously knows that they are buggered.

One thing is though clear, and that is that none of the Russian powerplayers have what it takes to take control.
The current theory is that Russia is heading towards a breakup, and that is why more and more Governors are setting up their own militias following Dondon Ramzans example.
Dondon Ramzan seems to be hellbent on waiting a bit, and then create his own country.
This is making a lot of Governors nervous since he has one of the 3 armies in Russia, and if the country breaks up many will be gobbled up by his forces.
Prigozhin is rapidly becoming a nobody after Surovikins dainty use of his rapists. Most of the Wagnerites are now dead in Bakhmut, so many that he is now recruiting soldiers openly in Central African Republic.

This obviously creates some questions...
Do we really want to keep Russia together?
How do we get control of the nukes?
How do we kill Dondon Ramzan?
What would be a bigger pain in the **** for Xi?

For now, we wait and see how the chips fall.
This ends the political part.

The US
In an act not seen since WWII it has been authorized to move technology from one producer and contracting other companies to produce the same product.
GMLRS and Himars will now be produced also by other suitable companies, doubling the production capacity in one go, and probably a lot more soon.
Boeing got a contract of delivering 10s of thousands of Himars compatible rockets that are cheaper and more longer ranged.
ALCOA, Atlas, and several others got contracts for almost ridiculous amounts of 155mm grenades and other ammunition.
Note, this is not needed for Ukraine as such. It is due to the west having rediscovered how much it takes to bump a big enemy off the chart.

Russia
If you have access to night time satellite imagery it might be worthwhile keeping track of Russian cities and towns in the hinterlands disappearing from "the map". The lack of maintenance is not helping, nor are the smoking incidents.

Frontlines
At Bakhmut Nothing New...
Behind the line safe from the mud artillery and tanks are lining up waiting for things to clear.
If Ukraine hit hard enough here it will be a major blow.

In Luhansk Ukraine are still manouvering into position taking village after village at high ground. Svatove is now more resembling a rat slowly being encircled and strangled by an anaconda.
In Zhaporizhzhia there has been a bit of manouvering too, as Ukraine are creating better positions. Also the artillery is slowly ramping up picking away at the Mobiks.

This leaves Kherson.
Surovikin has ordered the command and the civilian leaders to withdraw from Nova Kakhovka together with Russian civilians. Same with what remains of the Russians in Olechky after someone drove her Brigade through it after the confusion from the withdraval from North Kherson.
A couple of weeks of murderous Ukrainian artillery from the front, and a way to happy Brigadeer attacking their arses from behind was in the end a tad to much.
Unlike the other withdravals this was not according to Surovikins plan.
He misjudged how fast Ukraine could get the railroad bridge repaired and usable for armoured vehicles. He was thinking that Ukraine would repair it for rail, something that would have taken months.
Instead they just used a tank with a doser blade and shovelled the rail off the concrete bridge deck and went over with the rest of the brigade galumphing after... It was brilliantly daft, and they where gone into the steppes of Kherson in a jiffy leaving a few bewildered Russians behind.
And on top of that having Kinburn taken due to it not being reinforced enough.
Surovikin underrated the Ukrainians here, and that is a deadly mistake in war. He assumed they could not do what he could not do. Poop...
Leaving half of Southern Kherson behind is another deadly mistake on his part. Ukraine will just take that as a; Welcome as you please. And send in an entire army and plow on, the Nova Kakhovka dam is passable now... and the railbridge might not be ideal, but it is possible to run tanks and other stuff over if you have the nerves for it.

Conclusion
At a press conference in Moscow Lavrov sat, with only 13 viewers. Not even Russian state TV sent it out.
He was not allowed to the OSSE meeting to play with the big boys. Lavrov was cancelled.
It is what Russia has become. Not even ordinary Russians are watching them.

The vacuum is now so hard that anyone could drive a Death Star through the gates of Kremlin.
Question is who? If they do not get their **** together and undiscombobulate it will be Zelenskyy in August 2023.
I am though certain that some enterprising Russian will do it long before that.
As Konstantin is phrasing it, Tick Tock goes the crocodile it is coming closer.

I am still holding the 24th of this month as the end date.
It is though depending on Russia breaking down, and not being overly stubborn.
Military Russia is totally beat, we are now just waiting for the right weather conditions so that Ukraine can take a couple of Regions.
Right now it looks like Zhaporizhzhia, but Ukraine tends to do something else than the expected.
I say follow the Himars. Half of them are in Kherson, the rest are divided up among the rest.
Half of the 155mm barrel artillery is in Kherson. Their heaviest mechanised army corps is in Kherson.
Ukraines best commanders are in Kherson.
And, it is the easiest target to take right now.
This means that they will probably take Arkhangelsk or something. 🙂

If Bakhmut turns into a route, Luhansk is moving, and Kherson is largely taken and they are knockin on the gates of Crimea Russia will go home, and all of this is eminently doable before the 24th. Same with someone actually grabbing the reigns in Moscow and saying 'nuff, let's go.
Next peace date is between late february to late april. By then Russia is out of Ukraine regardless, and in August if they really intend to continue.
Circling back, now they have chips to play by offering to go home quietly. In April they do not have Chips. In Auguest they will lose entire Oblasts forever to a new very angry Superukraine...

It is here good to remember that it may end up with Ukraine having to enter Russia to save Russia... from whome is the question really.

Am I nervous that I may be wrong on the 24th? Obviously, in war though shalt not be overly cocky.
Problem is that I am using logic and math to it prognosticate the outcome, and I know I am often overly rational, and Russia is not rational.
I am quite open to having missed the human aspect of it. Question is if that makes me or Russia dissociated?"

He makes some brilliant observations on the disassociation from reality, the belief in the myths of empire and exceptionality Russians are brought up on. It is the same with every declining power and it is the same when a country suffers an embarrassing defeat.

He is not dissociated of course. Germany had lost WW2 by mid 1942 if not earlier and certainly should have been trying to agree surrender terms in 1942, 1943 and by autumn 1944. There was not a hope that they had the industrial or military power to win. That they continued to fight was down to madness and ideology, knowledge of what they had done in Russia and the merciless retribution coming to them and, for the ordinary serviceman, fear of getting executed by their own side on the one hand and fighting for their homes and to protect their families on the other. Rationality didn’t enter into it. So borolads friend is entirely right in his caution on predicting with too much certainty.
 
Noticed that there are reports in the media that Putin fell down stairs and soiled himself and that he is very ill with stomach cancer. These come from a Telegram channel that claims to have a contact close to Putin's camp. He is also showing Parkinsons-like symptoms.

This much we knew a while back of course.... although whether or not it is stomach cancer is moot. Maybe a cancer caused by radioactive isotopes.
 
A shorty. He is jiggered. It has been a very busy couple of weeks for us .... well, him mainly.
Here you go.

"
Just a shorty today since I am completely whacked out today from the last couple of months.

Anyway, there was a couple of small things I should note down.

Putin (the real one) was on the phone with Scholtz of Germany from his home in Sochii. He bleeted a few lame threats, and whined that Ukraine did not want to negotiate. Seems like Lavrov forgot to tell him that he cut the negotiations short...
According to the germans he seemed confused, wheezed a lot and coughed. The call was without video, but spectral analysis confirmed that it was him.
As far as western sources know he has not left Sochii for almost two months.
I guess this explains the power vacuum in Moscow, it follows the old adage. In Russia only Moscow counts, and if you are not in Moscow you do not count.

In Luhansk a couple of villages just north of Kreminna has fallen into Ukrainian hands and they now control directly the highway leading directly into Kreminna. This mean that Kreminna is taking fire from 3 different direction and is in what is aptly called operational encirclement.
Expect a goodwill gesture in a little while.

Ukraine attacked Piske today. It is a suburb town of Donetsk City, and Russia spent 9 months taking it.
Donetsk have so far been seen as a to heavy target to take out easily, and Ukraine have spent relatively little energy on artillery strikes here.
I suspect that this is a limited campaign to take Piske, but that it might be followed by a more severe artillery season to soften up the Russians in the City of Donetsk.
But, to take Donetsk Ukraine would need to flank it down at Vuhledar, and to the north.
Donetsk would be a massive undertaking, but it would also be an incredible loss for the Russians.
We will see, I just wanted to put Piske and Donetsk into everyones mind.

Several Ukrainian flags over in Southern Kherson has plopped up in the last 24 hours now that Russia is pulling towards the south. It seems that Russia has completely abandoned the beachside trenches and set up shop some 15-20km further south.
This obviously makes it far simpler for the Ukrainians to galumph across the Dnipro at a pace of their chosing to reinforce our dear galumphing brigadeer and her merry men.
I suspect she is staying behind the new lines to continue to arsebugger them at her own leasure.
I do not envy those Russians being hacked and slashed in the ass all the time.
I suggested she should name the tactic Peekaboom.

Otherwise it has been a calm 24 hours as Ukrainians ate borstj and blew up ammo dumps, headquarters, and other therapeutic places behind the Russian lines. The only place they concentrated their artillery was in Kherson and at Bakhmut where many Wagnerites all of a sudden failed to function in a permanent manner.
By placing new artillery there they can attack further behind the lines destroying the Mobiks and Wagnerites prior to attacking, this is softening the amount of zombies shuffling forth quite a bit. I suspect Ukraine will solve Bakhmut in a permanent manner as soon as the ground is firm enough.

Returning to Luhansk, the ground is now almost firm enough for another push, give it a week and it will most likely happen."
 
Update

"After steady shelling and pushes at Vuhledar for the last month Ukraine yesterday made heavy attacks to take back Pisky.
Yesterday I mused that this could open up for flanking attacks on Donetsk City.
I have also mentioned that Ukraine had increased artillery fire on the frontlines and the rear.

Today Ukraine opened fire with new artillery units brought to bear on the Russians at a level near, or at, what they did to shovel Russians out of Kherson.
At the same time two new tank brigades freshly rested from the Kherson battle is moving up through the rear joining up with two mechanised brigades that have been loitering for two weeks being ready to repell any Russian breakthroughs.
The Ukrainian air force is also out performing carpet bombings and using HAARMs to remove any lingering air defence.
My take is that Ukraine will attack massively within the next 48 hours, they rarely loiter around.

If Ukraine can blow though here they will have removed the largest remaining Russian force.
After that there is not much between them and Donetsk City. And we know what happens when Ukraine takes an area under operational encirclement, Russia will have to Goodwill their arses out of the city.

If this happens Russia would be in very dire straits politically, militarily and confidencewise.
Donetsk City was beside Crimea the jewel in what Russia has occupied.
Heck, even losing the mamoth battle of Bakhmut would be a hard psychological blow to them.
It would show to everyone that PMC Wagner are broken, that the Mobiks are useless, and that the Russian army is broken. I bet that Prigozhin would be killed after this since he is all of a sudden unimportent and a nuisance.
Dondon Ramzan was wise to vamoose out of Bakhmut, he at least saw that it was futile, and that he only lost soldiers he need for when it is time to carve out his own insane Kingdom.

I would say that it is 90 percent certain now that the next big push will be in Donetsk Oblast.
Waiting for the south to solidify will just take to long compared to the by now frozen over Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.

Over in Luhansk Ukraine has set up shop 3km outside of Kreminna after taking the road yesterday. This means that Kreminna is under operational encirclement and baring any large counter attack, that the Russians will have to goodwill their arses out of there.
So far the feeble counterattacks have been repelled quite easily, and Russia quite frankly do not have the manpower, nor the equipment, to stop the Ukrainians.

I think their current game is to take 2 out of 3 Oblasts occupied in 2013/2014 with all the psychological implications that will have on the Russians. After all, they will then have lost half of their old possesions, with the third under threat.

It is telling that Ukraine can keep up offensives in Kherson, Kinburn, Vuhledar, Bakhmut, and towards Svatove and Kreminna, at the same time. It is also telling of how weakened the Russians are now.

Nuclear thingamabobs
The Pundits have made a lot about Russia shooting Ukrainian nukes against Ukraine.
This is obviously hogwash, what they have been firing is denuked former Ukrainian ballistic missiles.
The formerly Ukrainian nukes was decommissioned by Russia and the US together, and everyone of those are accounted for.
The missiles was not even mentioned in the treaty, so the thrifty Russians just stored them for a rainy day.

Why denuke and fire the ones that carry nukes already when you have empty spares lying around?
Just thought I should clear up this misconception.

And, if you see Macron, stuff a baguette down his throat, he is not helping at all with his Russian appecement.
Russia will get nothing, thankfully Scholtz, Biden, Sumak, Poland and all of Scandibaltia are against any appecement.
Now that Scholtz have gotten promises of a gassy future he is all of a sudden far more handy."

And as this was being written
"The offensive in Bakhmut has started, stunning win at Opytne village outside of Bakhmut."
 
'And, if you see Macron, stuff a baguette down his throat, he is not helping at all with his Russian appecement' 👍

'My take is that Ukraine will attack massively within the next 48 hours' 👍

Hope that massive army you mentioned earlier can then finally march on Crimea

Once the dictator's army is out there is still the massive reparations needed

Keep seeing tweets of alleged massive fires in Russia - Moscow and St Petersburg in last 48 hours - more 'carelessly discarded cigarettes' ?
 
Well , it is the weekend....

"Well, the numbers for the upcoming Russian mobilisation has leaked out.
It will start mid December, and it is a whopper of meat targets.

700 000 men between 18 and 65
300 000 mothers above the age of 35 up to 55.
Why mothers? Well, they have already had children and are not likely to get more, but women who do not have children and are 35 can still have them.
Just imagine the amount of orphans that can go into staterun shelters to be brainwashed.

So, will this stop Russia losing the war?
Not in the least is the answer, there are no weapons and no gear for them. So, there will be Russian mothers in furs in the trenches together with Russian men in fake adidas clothing, and all of them will throwing rocks on tanks.
Someone in Russia is just blooming insane thinking that this will help, it will be even worse than the current massacre of Mobiks.
A new wave of Russians trying to flee have obviously started, and this time the women are also galumphing across the borders.

Standard & Poor's
The credit rating company have dipped deep into their little cocaine bowls and snorted for all they are worth.
They have upgraded the Russian credit rating based on increased production in the country, and citing large export orders.
Everyone else realises that they have read some really outrageous propaganda, even Nabiulina (head of the state bank of Russia) and a blooming "Putin" has openly stated the opposite.
Standard & Poor's are right now rated at the same level as Macron in my book, by being cloth-eared nincompoop enablers.

Putin
"A Putin" has stated that he will tour the frontline in Donetsk sometime in the next couple of weeks.
Obviously every single spy plane, intelligence agency and satelite will be tracking "Putins" for all they are worth, and that will be fed into the Ukrainian artillery database as and when he arrives.
Russia knows this, everyone knows this.

So, what may be up?
Putin is dying from being poisoned, very slowly, but irrevocably.
So, my far out idea is that a "Putin" will travel to the frontline, be blown up by the Ukrainians in a rather spectacular way infront of all the TV cameras that can be mustered.
Putin will get a heroes funeral, and Russia will be infuriated and they can do a full mobilisation of enraged Russian running naked into Ukraine wielding towels of war... or something.
I think they will blow him up even if Ukraine does not do it.

Will it work?
Nope, not at all. Russians does not give a tosser about "Putin" any longer. They just want to go home, eat borstj, and drink vodka. Most Russians by now know they are beat, they just want it over with. And if Putin is blown up, all the merrier.

Heck, this might even be the real Putins plan. Go out with a bang. They might even drive his rotting carcass out there in person, probably a faster and nicer way of dying compared to what has been done to hime.
Hint, if you ever go to his upcoming mausoleum, bring a geiger counter.

Restaurant tip
When the war is over and you decide to go to Ukraine and Kyiv, there is a restaurant on Kreshatik near Maidan and Globos, it is about 100 meters from it, it is called Puzata Hata. In common vernacular it translates as House of Lard, though there is not much of lard there except for the traditional dumplings cooked in lard.
You grab a trey, and fill it with small dishes of what you want to eat, sallads, pirogi, the works really. It is like the greatest hits of Ukrainian food. It is dirt cheap and taste heavenly.
Every time I go there I need a few hours of gasping for air and a forklift to get up of the chair... I always over eat there.
And yes, they have local beer, otherwise I recommend the cherry juice if you want some unalcoholic drinks.

After that amble into Globos for a coffee and some armenian cognac and look at the people passing by.
Stumble away to your hotel, I recommend the St Petersburg (probably renamed now), it is incredibly Soviet styled still. When I was there they still had a Chrushev oilpainting in the lobby.

Going to Ukraine to vacation and eat and drink is the best way to help them rebuild after the war.
Please do that, they deserve it, and you will create jobs that they need.
I will definitly go, but I will probably cry a lot, especially in Mariupol where I had many friends."
 
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