Variant of concern in South Africa

Of all the people in the UK (about 60 million) 88% have been jabbed at least once. 82% have been jabbed two or three times.

Of all the people in hospital with Covid symptoms (10k), 38% have had no jabs. So the 12% of the population that hasn't been jabbed represents almost 40% of the people seriously ill (ill enough to be in hospital anyway). These are staggering stats. I know some people can't be vaccinated for medical reasons but, for the others, it can only be stupidity.
 
ALARP, people.

It's all about ALARP.
Yes, definitely is.

Horses for courses, different times for different measures etc. People can disagree wildly on what they think is reasonable mind.

I think with this, as they don't know, they're playing safe, which is fair enough. Think everyone learned a big lesson with Delta, especially the UK (after India).

If it looks like it will be fine they will turn the measures off.
 
they're playing safe, w
I think the government has been too slow and too weak with pretty much every key deceion since the pandemic started.

The mantra from SAGE is that you should always go early and always go hard, it seems to have finally sank in eventually, in part at least.

I was away recently and the attitude to masks was entirely different to the UK, in that everyone was wearing them.

I think that attitude is led by the government's laissez-faire strategy.
 
Thats a fair comment Andy. But to be instantly labeled something she isn't because of one show she appeared on is wrong. I'm more likely to pay attention to someone who's actually working in South Africa than a Daily Mail or BBC headline.
Just be careful with this line of thinking, she works in a private practice (although does chair some SA board), they've still not had enough of it, for long enough, to have any idea how lethal it is, especially compared to Delta.

I'm not for one second saying she's wrong, but everywhere is analysing this and they're saying we need more time, more data etc, simple answer is we don't know, nobody does, yet.

She could also be being told to be careful what she says too, as their government don't want everyone shutting them off.

India played down Delta at the start, then look what happened.
 
I think the government has been too slow and too weak with pretty much every key deceion since the pandemic started.

The mantra from SAGE is that you should always go early and always go hard, it seems to have finally sank in eventually, in part at least.

I was away recently and the attitude to masks was entirely different to the UK, in that everyone was wearing them.

I think that attitude is led by the government's laissez-faire strategy.
Agree with all of that.

Was abroad recently and they were checking vaccine status on entry into every restaurant/ bar, everywhere indoors had masks, other than restaurants and bars. Absolutely zero issues at all, no complaints from anyone, nobody claiming exemptions, nobody wearing the masks half arsed or removing them when the staff were not looking. They just got on with it, and everyone was having a great time.

It's basic attitude, and our governments attitude (especially BJ) has been generally poor, but a lot of their supporters have a poor attitude too, so what we have governing is representative of who votes for them.
 
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Thats a fair comment Andy. But to be instantly labeled something she isn't because of one show she appeared on is wrong. I'm more likely to pay attention to someone who's actually working in South Africa than a Daily Mail or BBC headline.
Ah I wasn't looking at the show she was on (JHB is a cretin though), just that I've read various comments, from all avenues of media.

It's waaay too early to make a judgement on her, or know if she's being "influenced", but it's waaay to early for her to have any sort of judgement also, which is more my point.

I'd be more inclined to trust the people who study the virus, know all the info on the mutations/ spike protein, know about what vaccines can and can't do etc, and those who gather the stats based on that. We don't have that yet, so everyone's opinion needs to be taken with a pinch of salt for now.
 
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I'm well disappointed in society - can you imagine our current population during WW2?

Hitler isn't real
I'm not doing a blackout
Underground shelters are a way to control us
I'm not sending my children to the country

Everyone knows... hands, face, space is the way to stop this virus spreading ... it's honestly not hard
I think fewer people following rules in the late thirties would have been a good thing.
 
Just heard an epidemiologist on LBC 30 mins ago make some interesting observations on the Omicron variant in SA.

1 - Initially he panicked over how many mutations there was but has now calmed down
2 - Data from SA seems to suggest that the hospitalisations are mainly the unvaccinated
3 - The hospitalisations compared to the increase in cases is less than expected
4 - The symptoms appear to be milder
5 - The vaccines appear to be working
6 - He was mildly hopeful now that the speculation about Omicron not being more deadly than Delta is right
7 - His overall message was we still need to be careful and get vaccinated ASAP if you haven't got your 2nd or 3rd jabs but there is hope that the few extra restrictions we have introduced might be enough to keep us right over winter.
 
Just heard an epidemiologist on LBC 30 mins ago make some interesting observations on the Omicron variant in SA.

1 - Initially he panicked over how many mutations there was but has now calmed down
2 - Data from SA seems to suggest that the hospitalisations are mainly the unvaccinated
3 - The hospitalisations compared to the increase in cases is less than expected
4 - The symptoms appear to be milder
5 - The vaccines appear to be working
6 - He was mildly hopeful now that the speculation about Omicron not being more deadly than Delta is right
7 - His overall message was we still need to be careful and get vaccinated ASAP if you haven't got your 2nd or 3rd jabs but there is hope that the few extra restrictions we have introduced might be enough to keep us right over winter.
Who was it/ where was he from?

There might be some lag in that, but the epidemiologist has probably factored that in and it sounds promising though.

My main concern with this is if governments try and play it down, so they don't have countries impose restrictions on them, but SA have seemingly been quite open, which is the right thing to do.

This could end up outcompeting Delta in a positive way, if it's less dangerous, need to be very careful about this mind, as more "better" cases, could still pose some problems compared to less "worse" cases.
 
As has been said repeatedly it seems it's very much wait and see. Prepare for the worst hope for the best is sensible.

There are reasons to be both concerned and optimistic, what probably isn't helpful is speculation being presented as fact at this point.

As we know many in this country will hear what they want to hear and ignore all evidence contrary to that (hence we have a Boris Johnson led government and brexit).

As soon as they get a sniff from anyone remotely official saying there's nothing to worry about, compliance with any measures will collapse. For many in this government, including head honcho eejit number one it's going to be a big challenge to just stick to the facts for once.

Hopefully in the near future the waffling idiot will be able call a press conference to legitimately confirm some good news. Hopefully some amazing news if the best case scenario is realised.
 
Who was it/ where was he from?

There might be some lag in that, but the epidemiologist has probably factored that in and it sounds promising though.

My main concern with this is if governments try and play it down, so they don't have countries impose restrictions on them, but SA have seemingly been quite open, which is the right thing to do.

This could end up outcompeting Delta in a positive way, if it's less dangerous, need to be very careful about this mind, as more "better" cases, could still pose some problems compared to less "worse" cases.

Sorry Andy, I didn't catch his name. I was walking the dog and it was luck that he was on. It was Shelagh Fogarty's slot but checking her Twitter she doesn't refer to him. He was at some conference in Edinburgh with other epidemiologists.

He advised caution and wasn't getting carried away (and gave the usual caveats) but he certainly wasn't all doom and gloom.
 
what probably isn't helpful is speculation being presented as fact at this point.

I agree with your post Festa but if you are referring to my post I don't really think I'm presenting what a guy said on the radio as some kind of fact based justification to bin restrictions.

We are mostly sensible on here are won't be burning the masks just because of what's posted. It's sometimes nice to have a bit of hope rather than silence for 3 weeks until the actual findings are out.

It's good to talk (y)
 
I agree with your post Festa but if you are referring to my post I don't really think I'm presenting what a guy said on the radio as some kind of fact based justification to bin restrictions.

We are mostly sensible on here are won't be burning the masks just because of what's posted. It's sometimes nice to have a bit of hope rather than silence for 3 weeks until the actual findings are out.

It's good to talk (y)

No, no genuinely not directed at anyone particularly.

Just a general point. I know some posters are quite passionate about this issue and maybe guilty of confirmation bias at times, but I didn't have you pegged as one of them 👍
 
No, no genuinely not directed at anyone particularly.

Just a general point. I know some posters are quite passionate about this issue and maybe guilty of confirmation bias at times, but I didn't have you pegged as one of them 👍

My bad then my man - like I said though, I agree with you.

Fingers crossed the early signs are correct.
 
The University of Oxford have said this:

"Due to the very recent discovery of the new B.1.1.529 [Omicron] strain of coronavirus, there are limited data available at this time.

As with any new variant, we will carefully evaluate the implications of the emergence of B.1.1.529 for vaccine immunity.

Despite the appearance of new variants over the past year, vaccines have continued to provide very high levels of protection against severe disease and there is no evidence so far that Omicron is any different.

However, we have the necessary tools and processes in place for rapid development of an updated Covid-19 vaccine if it should be necessary."
 
Moderna CEO has spooked markets this morning

Here's another interview with Bancel from Yesterday (I don't think it's the one from your link, as that's FT and I don't have that), he says they don't know the effect on VE yet, but will know that in two weeks (can't imagine they know that already, since yesterday?). He seems to think a negative effect is likely, but they don't know by how much. Hopefully it's not a lot and can be largely overcome by boosters. It seems they still don't know the effect on Virulence either.


Obviously, I don't even know what data Moderna have on it yet, as SA is mainly J&J and Pfizer. Moderna vax is similar to Pfizer, but I doubt Pfizer are sharing data with Moderna? Maybe they are.

It's a bit concerning he's saying that mind, but they do keep saying we need to wait on the data, maybe people have took it slightly the wrong way.
 
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