YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

gregorgregorovich

Well-known member
Agree, this country is moderate more than anything but it loves ‘sensible Labour’

Agree, this country is moderate more than anything but it loves ‘sensible Labour’.
If you'd put a full stop after anything, you would probably have been closer to how this country has been, since the advent of the Labour Party as a serious political force. Even at the last election a Corbyn led Labour Party polled at just under 33%, which is about as low as they have done in any National elections. Now we have the Tories, in opinion polls as low as 21%, but they have never polled that low in any National election. Having said that, they've never had a leader so utterly useless as Truss, but even if an election was called tomorrow, I would expect the Tories to maybe poll around 30%. The country doesn't"love" sensible Labour or sensible Tory for that matter, although there seems to be less of them in the Parliamentary Tory party. It is split, in my opinion between around 30% who will vote for either of the 2 main parties and 40% , who will either vote for another party (mainly centre left), or will switch between the 2 main parties. To win, the Labour Party does have to appeal to "moderate" voters. But, without the votes of the more left leaning supporters, like myself, they could never achieve power. Now, I suppose Laughing will come along and tell me that I should paragraph my reply, but I've just finished a nice red wine and I couldn't be arsed. Sorry Laughing.
 
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jam69

Well-known member
Something Im finding strange is the fact the Lib Dems are not going up in the polls. In previous times when the Tories have been unpopular they have lost some support to Labour but also a decent chunk to the Libs - mainly in southern and home counties seats and the more affluent parts of London and the west country.

In 1992 when the Tories were unpopular the libs got 17%, in 97 and 2001 a similar amount in 2005 and 2010 they reached the mid 20s. All the while the Tories were in the low to mid 30's. There has always been a section of more 'one nation' type tory voters who will vote Lib when they are fed up with a Tory govt.

So its strange that in all the recent polls there seems to be a massive switch from Tory to Labour but no real movement from Tory to Lib.

It feels off to be honest
I think libdems like the rest of us are so repulsed by the tories that tgey will vote Labour to get shot of them rather than libdem to gain a dozen or so seats.
Though in some areas libdem is still the sensible vote to rid us of the tories
 

Lefty

Well-known member
That's 3 too many priorities.

Ah, but it is also about dynasty. Their kids and wives and mistresses and siblings and acquaintances won’t thrive and be looked after if the party funders aren’t getting what they paid for and that requires the party in power.

It’s a hegemony. It’s not just as narrow as themselves it is about maintaining the hegemony for their kind of people. Conservatives, at least at the levels of senior party officials and MP’s, see themselves as the natural ruling class and appointed by god. Very few in the current incarnation of the Party would put country even on the list of priorities let alone first.
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Trying to think objectively without any political bias I don't think Labour can recreate size of the Blair victories, at present. The political map has changed and polorisiation seems stronger to me than in say 1997.

Scotland seems to be permanently SNP with a rump of anti-SNP voting Conservatives. In 1997 this was a Labour stronghold and now the party has 1? MP there.

Many voters in left behind areas of England and Wales areas in general don't trust Labour and Liberals, no matter how bad the Conservatives are. Some voters may just not vote that had voted Tory and there will be some swing back to Labour but not to what it was say under Blair.

I can see Labour doing well in the big English and Welsh cities and large commuter towns, where there are lots of young and middle aged professionals renting properties who are not happy with their lot, that will easily vote Labour.

Rural areas don't vote Labour, but quite a few will switch to Liberals, particularly those on low to modest incomes. The by elections showed very big swings, OK some of that is a by election swing and voters can safely not vote or switch as a protest, but some of the swing will happen in a GE.

A realistic overall result would be Labour with most seats, but needing SNP and Liberals to form a coalition. The Tories have had weak/unpopular leaders and were in a mess with UKIPs starting to take their votes, but still got 32.4% (Michael Howard in 2005 and he was up against a stronger than average Labour leader in Blair). The 40% tax payers who are home owners are key Tory voters and pensioners with private incomes who have been well looked after in general over the last 12 years. The number of private income pensioners in the population is increasing all the time.
 
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Laughing

Well-known member
If you'd put a full stop after anything, you would probably have been closer to how this country has been, since the advent of the Labour Party as a serious political force. Even at the last election a Corbyn led Labour Party polled at just under 33%, which is about as low as they have done in any National elections. Now we have the Tories, in opinion polls as low as 21%, but they have never polled that low in any National election. Having said that, they've never had a leader so utterly useless as Truss, but even if an election was called tomorrow, I would expect the Tories to maybe poll around 30%. The country doesn't"love" sensible Labour or sensible Tory for that matter, although there seems to be less of them in the Parliamentary Tory party. It is split, in my opinion between around 30% who will vote for either of the 2 main parties and 40% , who will either vote for another party (mainly centre left), or will switch between the 2 main parties. To win, the Labour Party does have to appeal to "moderate" voters. But, without the votes of the more left leaning supporters, like myself, they could never achieve power. Now, I suppose Laughing will come along and tell me that I should paragraph my reply, but I've just finished a nice red wine and I couldn't be arsed. Sorry Laughing.
Let it go Greg 😁
 

Pak_Doo_Ik

Well-known member
I suspect you're granting them too much nous and foresight. He came in on a landslide and proceeded to self-detonate in a remarkably short space of time.
Operation Save Big Dog

I wouldn’t even be surprised if him and Cummings have been having secret little meeting to kiss and make up

Johnson, Cummings, Farage the most feared front 3 since Messi, Suarez and Neymar🙈
 

HolgateCorner

Well-known member
If you'd put a full stop after anything, you would probably have been closer to how this country has been, since the advent of the Labour Party as a serious political force. Even at the last election a Corbyn led Labour Party polled at just under 33%, which is about as low as they have done in any National elections. Now we have the Tories, in opinion polls as low as 21%, but they have never polled that low in any National election. Having said that, they've never had a leader so utterly useless as Truss, but even if an election was called tomorrow, I would expect the Tories to maybe poll around 30%. The country doesn't"love" sensible Labour or sensible Tory for that matter, although there seems to be less of them in the Parliamentary Tory party. It is split, in my opinion between around 30% who will vote for either of the 2 main parties and 40% , who will either vote for another party (mainly centre left), or will switch between the 2 main parties. To win, the Labour Party does have to appeal to "moderate" voters. But, without the votes of the more left leaning supporters, like myself, they could never achieve power. Now, I suppose Laughing will come along and tell me that I should paragraph my reply, but I've just finished a nice red wine and I couldn't be arsed. Sorry Laughing.
I was more looking back at Wilson and Blair winning multiple elections for Labour with a ‘sensible’ image. It appears that the Tory media are struggling to portray Starmer as anything more than dull so the stars are lining up again.

I think Corbyn was quite sensible as well hence the Tories adopting some of his policies but he carried a lot of political baggage from his younger days which gave them some easy targets to hit.
 

festa5

Well-known member
I was more looking back at Wilson and Blair winning multiple elections for Labour with a ‘sensible’ image. It appears that the Tory media are struggling to portray Starmer as anything more than dull so the stars are lining up again.

I think Corbyn was quite sensible as well hence the Tories adopting some of his policies but he carried a lot of political baggage from his younger days which gave them some easy targets to hit.
Aye. One of the Tory (and their compliant media's) go to strategies has also been to stoke up fear of labour.

In recent elections plenty will have voted Tory not because they actually liked them, but because they'd been successfully convinced labour were a load of scruffy, terrorist sympathising communists intent on bankrupting the country. As utterly ridiculous as it is, they'll have seen the Tories as the lesser of two evils.

Starmer is so beige and straight-laced it's not going to work on him. No-one is scared of a boring professional. As much as many are (rightly maybe, to a point) frustrated with him for not being bolder, you can't deny he's pretty much completely disabled one of the Tories key strategies in helping them convince turkeys to vote for Christmas.
 

Chris_Boro

Well-known member
I’ve got to say I’m not convinced by the polls. I know they sample 2000 people across the nation but the result doesn’t look right to me

I agree Truss might not even make it l until Christmas but if you leave the Tories out for a moment to look at the predictions the Libs should be getting more that 11 MPs

I’ve said it before but all blue seats since 2019 have gone to Liberal Democrat’s which fits with the idea Labour will find it hard to take blue seats. As incredible as the polls look for Labour, tactical voting seems to be the sensible plan to rid the Tories

I also think there’s too much fracturing where votes aren’t going to Plaid Cymru or even SNP. Green might even get a few seats

Does anyone seriously think the Tories will end up on less than 70 MPs?

And we are 2 years from an election so nobody knows what will happen my guess is the press will have to turn on Starmer and will weaponise racism in the party.

And TBF to Starmer he has just said they would train more nurses and Doctors and create a nationalised British energy company that is at the forefront of green energy and nationalise the railways

It’s almost as if he’s been reading FMTTM 🤔

5 polls give Labour a lead of over 20 points. This isn't a random poll, it's a consistent trend.

It probably won't last, but even if it half's, that's still a Labour majority. Denying the accuracy of these polls, that have been proved to be historically accurate, is just denying the mood of the nation right now.
 

ThePrisoner

Well-known member
5 polls give Labour a lead of over 20 points. This isn't a random poll, it's a consistent trend.

It probably won't last, but even if it half's, that's still a Labour majority. Denying the accuracy of these polls, that have been proved to be historically accurate, is just denying the mood of the nation right now.
I can see it lasting through winter at least. Despite the cap on energy unit charges millions are still going to be on the brink as inflation in food and elsewhere continues to bite. Chuck in a few hundred thousand mortgage payments redoubling in a month in two as well, plus plans to further cut benefits for millions who are already in work. It seems unsalvageable for the Tories, barring a miracle. Its called 'Class War'.
 

festa5

Well-known member
Never mind lasting I can see the polls getting worse for the Tories yet.

So far people are worried. But in many cases the reality of what's happening is yet to really bite. When it does the polls are surely only going to go in one direction?
 

Brian Marwood

Well-known member
I’ve got to say I’m not convinced by the polls. I know they sample 2000 people across the nation but the result doesn’t look right to me

I agree Truss might not even make it l until Christmas but if you leave the Tories out for a moment to look at the predictions the Libs should be getting more that 11 MPs

I’ve said it before but all blue seats since 2019 have gone to Liberal Democrat’s which fits with the idea Labour will find it hard to take blue seats. As incredible as the polls look for Labour, tactical voting seems to be the sensible plan to rid the Tories

If you did a poll I doubt a large percentage of the general population could even name the current Lib Dem leader, never mind choose to vote for him/her.
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
There are a lot of angry and anxious people out there, but around 33% still vote Conservative, because they are higher tax payers and/or fully own property and most people vote in line with what they believe is in their self interest at General Elections (not by Elections). This believe in self interest could be driven by the media owners in some cases, but I doubt that is going to change for the next election. Blair had a charm with media owners to get them to back him.

Younger people tend not to vote, they suddenly did vote for Corbyn when he said he would scrap tuition fees, but this was a bit of an exception. I have worked at polling stations and very few young people come in (under 35s), certainly in rural areas
 
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