YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

You mean by the voter i.d thing? Can still vote by post though, can't you, even if you don't have i.d?

Allowing old people to use an oyster card, and not young people is ageist though, and other crap like that.

Suppression won't do anywhere near the damage they think it will, like with the i.d, it will deter the conspiracy theorists and unicorn believers who think they're being tracked everywhere, and my bet is most of those are RWNJ's.

Then there's the fact that people are so mad with the Tories, that I expect turnout against them will be massive, yet their turnout might be low, but we'll see.
Aye, I don't think it'll be enough by some way.

Their real issue is the cost of living crisis. People can kid themselves about a lot of stuff about the Tories, but there's no getting away from it when they start to directly be affected and see the government do naff all other than imply we all need to tighten our bents while at the same time backing a minister to the hilt for "accidentally" not paying tens of millions in tax.

The Tories have no answer to it. Partly because they're ideologically opposed to taxing big business and government intervention, even if people are starving.

But also because most of them are so detached from reality they're incapable of grasping the real impact it's having on people. £1k a year extra to heat the old stables is "chickenfeed" (to quote Boris) for them.

Half of them don't really believe people are suffering. The half that do know it, such as a lot of the "red wall" MPs, tend to be poor examples of humanity who simply don't give a **** anyway.

The only thing that might prompt them to take action is if they think it might give them a chance of staying in power. But I think they genuinely think people are exaggerating and it's not that big an issue, so they'll continue to do nothing and hope their pathetic dog whistling and culture wars is what people care more about still.
 
Aye, I don't think it'll be enough by some way.

Their real issue is the cost of living crisis. People can kid themselves about a lot of stuff about the Tories, but there's no getting away from it when they start to directly be affected and see the government do naff all other than imply we all need to tighten our bents while at the same time backing a minister to the hilt for "accidentally" not paying tens of millions in tax.

The Tories have no answer to it. Partly because they're ideologically opposed to taxing big business and government intervention, even if people are starving.

But also because most of them are so detached from reality they're incapable of grasping the real impact it's having on people. £1k a year extra to heat the old stables is "chickenfeed" (to quote Boris) for them.

Half of them don't really believe people are suffering. The half that do know it, such as a lot of the "red wall" MPs, tend to be poor examples of humanity who simply don't give a **** anyway.

The only thing that might prompt them to take action is if they think it might give them a chance of staying in power. But I think they genuinely think people are exaggerating and it's not that big an issue, so they'll continue to do nothing and hope their pathetic dog whistling and culture wars is what people care more about still.
Yes nail on the head they will use a culture war and an anti woke agenda to shore up their vote and the over 65s will turn out for them again. Can’t see them winning though, the country is too much of a shambles.
 
Aye, I don't think it'll be enough by some way.

Their real issue is the cost of living crisis. People can kid themselves about a lot of stuff about the Tories, but there's no getting away from it when they start to directly be affected and see the government do naff all other than imply we all need to tighten our bents while at the same time backing a minister to the hilt for "accidentally" not paying tens of millions in tax.

The Tories have no answer to it. Partly because they're ideologically opposed to taxing big business and government intervention, even if people are starving.

But also because most of them are so detached from reality they're incapable of grasping the real impact it's having on people. £1k a year extra to heat the old stables is "chickenfeed" (to quote Boris) for them.

Half of them don't really believe people are suffering. The half that do know it, such as a lot of the "red wall" MPs, tend to be poor examples of humanity who simply don't give a **** anyway.

The only thing that might prompt them to take action is if they think it might give them a chance of staying in power. But I think they genuinely think people are exaggerating and it's not that big an issue, so they'll continue to do nothing and hope their pathetic dog whistling and culture wars is what people care more about still.
Sure, some people think they're more well off than they actually are, doesn't take much to swallow every penny of someone's disposable income.

A lot of people are selfish, no doubt about that, their hate and ideology ranks quite high, but their pocket ranks higher. The hate and ideology will not go away, but they should have zero doubt that their pocket is being largely hurt by the tories.

It's worse for the plastic tories, those earning less than 100k, and even more so those less than 50k or 30k etc, who get terrible value voting tory. The tories conned quite a few back in the day, that if you were earning more than the average, say over around 30k, then the tories would be good value. I sort of fell into this trap myself once, but it didn't take long to come back, I was more conned by the tory press pinning the recession on Labour. I wasn't that interested in the news or politic back then, it's easy to be led astray in that instance, especially when younger.

You're right that some might think the issues are exaggerated, but to me this just reminds me of the frog in a pan of water, which is gradually been heated up. The pan is nearly 50 degrees and there are a few still in there, thinking "this is fine".

1677148939072.png
 
Yes nail on the head they will use a culture war and an anti woke agenda to shore up their vote and the over 65s will turn out for them again. Can’t see them winning though, the country is too much of a shambles.
Yeah, the "anti-woke" won't work, when the "anti woke" is pretty much meant to be Labour voters in this case, who are also likely to be their kids, and grandkids etc.

Surely people talk about who they're voting for, or they can guess who their family vote for? Most of the time that would be aligned I expect, but when it isn't they can surely see the reasons why?

Even if they're not saying who they're voting for, surely the kids and grandkids are talking a lot about how they're struggling or skint etc, and what the reasons for that are?

Not sure why someone who would actively vote against what the younger folk want, who are those facing the largest impact of everything. I can't see a reason why I'd vote in a selfish way when I was >65, unless there was a live or die scenario going on.
 
You're right about the Tory culture war approach.

A culture war will only dig the Tory hole deeper, it won't be enough to get in power, and then once people realise they're better off, or better supported under labour, it will end up one hell of an even deeper hole to climb out of, for the Tories.

They're just not learning, that being against the people is not going to work, not when they need the people to vote them in.
 
Not sure why someone who would actively vote against what the younger folk want, who are those facing the largest impact of everything. I can't see a reason why I'd vote in a selfish way when I was >65, unless there was a live or die scenario going on.
That's exactly what the culture wars are for though. Convincing people that there's an existential threat against their very way of life.

If it's not illegal immigrants it's changing words in a book you'll never read.

People are remarkably stupid when it comes to weighing up risk in anything other than direct view (c.f. global warming).

The biggest problem facing the "anyone but the Tories" brigade is that they're desperate not to pin their colours to any particular mast. This is giving the Tories a massive boost which will see the above poll margins decrease as we approach the next election (in my opinion).

The Ukraine war is being used as a reason for the current fruit & veg shortages despite evidence showing shelves across the rest of Europe overflowing. The Tories know no shame and will happily pivot to being pro-EU and using the media to explain why it's a short term necessity. At that point where do Labour go?

The whole Trans debate is being cynically used to give Tories more ammo in the culture wars - "Starmer can't define a woman".

I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.
 
Yeah, the "anti-woke" won't work, when the "anti woke" is pretty much meant to be Labour voters in this case, who are also likely to be their kids, and grandkids etc.

Surely people talk about who they're voting for, or they can guess who their family vote for? Most of the time that would be aligned I expect, but when it isn't they can surely see the reasons why?

Even if they're not saying who they're voting for, surely the kids and grandkids are talking a lot about how they're struggling or skint etc, and what the reasons for that are?

Not sure why someone who would actively vote against what the younger folk want, who are those facing the largest impact of everything. I can't see a reason why I'd vote in a selfish way when I was >65, unless there was a live or die scenario going on.
I think there is a bit of an attitude problem with a good portion of the over 65s who lived their working lives through much more certain and affordable times with less pressure at work, lower house prices, a strong health system, no social media nonsense and a smaller wealth gap. It’s a completely different world for younger people.
 
That's exactly what the culture wars are for though. Convincing people that there's an existential threat against their very way of life.

If it's not illegal immigrants it's changing words in a book you'll never read.

People are remarkably stupid when it comes to weighing up risk in anything other than direct view (c.f. global warming).

The biggest problem facing the "anyone but the Tories" brigade is that they're desperate not to pin their colours to any particular mast. This is giving the Tories a massive boost which will see the above poll margins decrease as we approach the next election (in my opinion).

The Ukraine war is being used as a reason for the current fruit & veg shortages despite evidence showing shelves across the rest of Europe overflowing. The Tories know no shame and will happily pivot to being pro-EU and using the media to explain why it's a short term necessity. At that point where do Labour go?

The whole Trans debate is being cynically used to give Tories more ammo in the culture wars - "Starmer can't define a woman".

I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.
Yeah, I get what the idea of it is, but it reminds me of the below, except the guy on the right is grandad, and the one on the left is his kids/ grandkids.

1677180765879.png

They might say "Things under *insert any other party* would be awful", but anyone else can say "You've been charge for 15 years mate, and it's got no better, it's actually got much worse".

What can they say any other party would be crap at, that they haven't destroyed themselves?

They do try and balme failures on things which are not the real problem, you're very right with your Ukraine example, but people surely enough people aren't daft enough to miss that the EU, or anywhere else doesn't have the same problems we do, or certainly not to the same magnitude. Sure, some will fall for it, as people are daft, but they're not that daft. Maybe once bitten, twice shy, for those who voted against Labour or Remain, despite being fairly happy prior? Loads probably feel absolutely gutted that they voted Tory/ Brexit etc, most won't admit it, but most of those who switched sides probably will (or at least vote that way).

The trans thing, and anti-semitism etc, the sticks that tories are trying to use agaisnt Labour won't work, as there's zero proof that they would do any better, it would be the opposite. Same with them saying they support Ukraine, but so would Labour as they have a heart. Labour would also be coming down harder on the russians, and those profiteering also.

It's going to be closer than the below, but I think Labour will get more than the Tories got last time, and the Tories will get less than Labour did. Somewhere around 400-200 is my bet.
1677181531857.png
 
That's exactly what the culture wars are for though. Convincing people that there's an existential threat against their very way of life.

If it's not illegal immigrants it's changing words in a book you'll never read.

People are remarkably stupid when it comes to weighing up risk in anything other than direct view (c.f. global warming).

The biggest problem facing the "anyone but the Tories" brigade is that they're desperate not to pin their colours to any particular mast. This is giving the Tories a massive boost which will see the above poll margins decrease as we approach the next election (in my opinion).

The Ukraine war is being used as a reason for the current fruit & veg shortages despite evidence showing shelves across the rest of Europe overflowing. The Tories know no shame and will happily pivot to being pro-EU and using the media to explain why it's a short term necessity. At that point where do Labour go?

The whole Trans debate is being cynically used to give Tories more ammo in the culture wars - "Starmer can't define a woman".

I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.
The Tories have always singled out groups of people and blamed them for the countries woes. Single mothers (never single fathers), eco warriors, gays, trans, immigrants. trade unions, unemployed, ill/disabled people, teachers and the latest is pensioners-anyone but themselves
 
Unless something dramatic happens which uplifts the economy or a world war halts normal proceedings I think the Tories will take a 1997 style thrashing at the next election, regardless of any culture or anti woke agenda.
 
I fear the next election will be a lot closer than many on here think.

Maybe. But there’s a moment that perhaps has happened….the tipping point. When there is no way that it can be pulled back to what is was, or anywhere near it.
It could have reached that place, the public don’t want to listen anymore. Hopefully.
 
people aren't daft enough
People will always be daft enough. You've said yourself that you've voted Tory in the past because you didn't really pay any attention. There will still be plenty of people like that, as well as people who think they'll somehow benefit from backing the schoolyard bully. It's human nature.
 
People will always be daft enough. You've said yourself that you've voted Tory in the past because you didn't really pay any attention. There will still be plenty of people like that, as well as people who think they'll somehow benefit from backing the schoolyard bully. It's human nature.
People will be daft enough, but there's a scale to it, like I say, people are daft, but not many that daft, not for this scenario/ circumstance.

I've voted for them previously as a one-off (a much tamer version of this lot), when I was much younger and not that interested. Wasn't based on any far-right reasons really, purely economical and maybe some reasons to do with defence (which was my sector). It doesn't take much to move back the other way, I should know. I realised almost straight away, and have moved further from them ever since. How they are now is far worse than at any point I've know. I suppose being in the centre/ centre left, and having worked in two different sectors which are rammed with right-leaning people who are not earning much, I've got a fair feel of what the current mood is with swing voters.

It's quite easy to forecast which direction the middle is going, and understand reasons for boosts for Labour and Tories, and also see which boosts are papering over the cracks (canyons). I was talking about the tories getting beat in 2025 back during the vaccine rollout, where the labour left were on Starmers back for Labour being behind in the polls. They're not talking about the polls now though.

The tories need some absolutely massive good news, better than any other good new in the last 70 years. The good news would almost need to be equivalent to how bad covid, NHS, public services, strikes, the war, energy prices and inflation have been bad, it's not happening. If Labour lock in ~400 seats, then that will probably be enough for two terms, where they will have some time to do some good. The first 5 years aren't going to be pretty though, it's going to be a tall order digging out of this hole. I just hope the left don't expect everything immediately and start kicking off, as it will pull the rug before we've even started to get anywhere, and invite the Tories in for another 10-15 years. I imagine by then they will be calling themselves the "new conservatives", and be doing all they can to get away what has happened in this term.

Backing the bully can work, as a short-term tactic in a desperate scenario, or not being against him anyway. Sort of like how not causing aggro for kidnappers can work, it can help you by them letting their guard down, the military adopt similar tactics sometimes, giving up just enough to stay alive, but nothing really worthwhile, which is time sensitive. Long term it doesn't work though, and wouldn't be advisable short term if there were other options.
 
Back
Top