Bitcoin Halving today.
- Thread starter VladKinder
- Start date
Andy_W
Well-known member
You raised a load of comments, most of which were extremely simple to refute, so you're in the same circumstances, just in a different boat.
I'll take my chances on the asset freezing, it does a hell of a lot more good than harm, it's a winner, no doubt about it.
If it makes it easier to freeze drug dealers/ fraudsters assets/ cash or if it helps free assets of powerful people in countries which are committing crimes then fair enough, do it more often. I imagine the benefit to a small player like us far exceeds any negatives. I know of more people lose bitcoin wallets/ logins than I've known had assets or cash frozen, in fact I can't even think of one of the latter who I know. Equally I've known a few lose a £20 note or whatever on a night out, and known others find them, probably evens out for most, but I bet this is rarer now people only really use cards or phones. Credit card transactions are protected/ insured too, and also have consumer rights etc. Don't know anyone whose found a bitcoin wallet or bitcoin.
Banks can lend cash out, they need to, as most people like to borrow to live (mortgages etc), but there are rules on lending and leverage etc, and the risk can be diversified out. The regulation and FSCS protection gets stronger every year.
I think coinbase is regulated by the FCA, which is good, but it's not protected by the FSCS which is very bad.
Knowing how a keyboard works is a bit different to not knowing how what you're investing in works. I have no idea how a keyboard works either, but It can only really be combination of logic/ code, changing the physical input into a digital one. Then whatever that code generates just gets interpreted by something else and put where ever it needs to go, moved around by more code et. It's just like a circuit with loads of switches I suppose. The thing about the keyboard is I know it does work, and has a use.
People who invest in apple have a fair idea of what they do, and how they make their money etc, and whilst they don't know if they're going to lose 20% or gain 100%, it is extremely unlikely they're going to drop 50-80% or whatever. They don't need to know the minute finer details, but a lot who "invest" in crypto know a hell of a lot less than me, and I'm not claiming to know much at all. There are people who know a hell of a lot more than me about a lot of things and investing or whatever, and they're a hell of a lot more dubious of crypto than I am. Like I've said before though, the tech or idea of it is good though, but the energy waste isn't.
The world is a maze of datacentres, and more and more are being made, I just don't see how a bank could lose peoples account data and it not be able to be recovered. Even for my company I have about 5 backups of various data in different places, and we're small time and not a bank etc.
I don't think anyone has the power to switch the internet off, but if they could then those who only hold bitcoin are probably more screwed than most. I think crypto would be the opposite of a get out with the way our system works, and I just don't see a way that the current system would be able to be matched, never mind replaced.
To provide some balance so I don't look like a bitcoin evangelist, because I'm not, I actually think bitcoin is pretty rubbish at a lot of the things it claims to solve.
It will never be used as a currency, certainly not on the 1st layer, because it's too slow and expensive to move small quantities.
Distributed ledger is great for transparency and independence but not very good for privacy. I'm not sure anyone wants everyone knowing exactly how much money they have in their accounts.
Self custody is great in principle but the responsibility of looking after your own money is not for everyone. There is also no room for mistakes because if you send your bitcoin to someone else incorrectly then you can't ask a bank to return it for you. There's no forgotten password button etc and most people aren't comfortable with that amount of responsibility.
Energy usage guarantees the security of bitcoin but it's expensive and potentially wasteful. However, there is a lot of overproduction of energy that goes to waste. Energy produced from solar, hydro, wind etc that can't be stored or used as it's produced means cheap energy usage for bitcoin. Miners will go where energy is cheapest.
There are some solutions already within crypto projects and long term it could be that bitcoin exists but for something it wasn't initially intended like a store of value rather than a currency.
Obviously bitcoin volatility is a problem for any utility but one of the biggest challenges people are currently facing is the volatility of fiat money. Inflation has gone crazy in recent years. Our money is worth less every year. Let's not pretend the current system is actually working for the majority of people.
It will never be used as a currency, certainly not on the 1st layer, because it's too slow and expensive to move small quantities.
Distributed ledger is great for transparency and independence but not very good for privacy. I'm not sure anyone wants everyone knowing exactly how much money they have in their accounts.
Self custody is great in principle but the responsibility of looking after your own money is not for everyone. There is also no room for mistakes because if you send your bitcoin to someone else incorrectly then you can't ask a bank to return it for you. There's no forgotten password button etc and most people aren't comfortable with that amount of responsibility.
Energy usage guarantees the security of bitcoin but it's expensive and potentially wasteful. However, there is a lot of overproduction of energy that goes to waste. Energy produced from solar, hydro, wind etc that can't be stored or used as it's produced means cheap energy usage for bitcoin. Miners will go where energy is cheapest.
There are some solutions already within crypto projects and long term it could be that bitcoin exists but for something it wasn't initially intended like a store of value rather than a currency.
Obviously bitcoin volatility is a problem for any utility but one of the biggest challenges people are currently facing is the volatility of fiat money. Inflation has gone crazy in recent years. Our money is worth less every year. Let's not pretend the current system is actually working for the majority of people.
Teesside96
Active member
Bitcoin is used as a store of value and never has the intent to replace actual fiat ‘money’.
Similar to gold…bitcoins should be looked at as a digital property instead of a security.
The original white paper dictates it tries to replace the flaws in which gold carries. Inflation and money printing is criminal at the moment so investing in something with a fixed supply in theory should be a smarter thing to do (I’m not saying btc is smarter or not smarter)
There’s a great book online called ‘The Bitcoin standard’ that goes into the history of money, commodities, how current monetary policy is failing drastically.
A lot of people in countries from contents such as Africa and South America have to hold btc or usd to edge against their fiat inflation rises.
I think criticizing btc without genuine a lot of research is common…if you have then fair enough.
I expect big things from btc in the next 10 years.
Similar to gold…bitcoins should be looked at as a digital property instead of a security.
The original white paper dictates it tries to replace the flaws in which gold carries. Inflation and money printing is criminal at the moment so investing in something with a fixed supply in theory should be a smarter thing to do (I’m not saying btc is smarter or not smarter)
There’s a great book online called ‘The Bitcoin standard’ that goes into the history of money, commodities, how current monetary policy is failing drastically.
A lot of people in countries from contents such as Africa and South America have to hold btc or usd to edge against their fiat inflation rises.
I think criticizing btc without genuine a lot of research is common…if you have then fair enough.
I expect big things from btc in the next 10 years.
People get their accounts frozen all the time. If the bank suspects illegal activity they freeze them. Never heard of anyone being on holiday and having their card declined etc? Find that very hard to believe.
The big freeze: frozen and locked bank accounts
In the past year alone, Resolver has received more than 1,000 complaints from people who have had their bank accounts frozen, blocked or even closed – often without warning. Frozen account complaints The ‘big freeze’ has become more prolific in…
news.resolver.co.uk
Seems like a good security measure but not very good if you are in a restaurant in Spain and your card gets declined or you've filled up your car with petrol and have no way of paying before you leave.
Apple is down 20% since December. Tesla is down 62% since last July.
It is not bitcoin holders that would lose the most of the internet was switched off. Everything runs through the internet these days. The whole world would be ****ed.
There's no actual evidence that the halving causes price increases. It's very possible it's correlation rather than causation.
In theory it reduces the supply to exchanges so if demand doesn't change then the price should increase but the supply and the demand are two different things. Anyone that believes the trend and had bought bitcoin in order to sell after the halving might not have anyone to sell to if all the movement is for the same reason. If the new ETFs mean more replay investments via regular monthly deposits might mean that demand stays steady in which case the price could go a lot higher than previous halvings.
I.e. who knows!
Andy_W
Well-known member
Oh I've had that with my card, many times, I'm fine with that for fraud protection. It can be a bit irritating, but I then just use another card from a different account, or apple pay. I think you can have multiple cards from the same account too, but never needed to do it. I'd rather have that protection than my account be rinsed online or abroad though. Can have other things like revoult too etc.People get their accounts frozen all the time. If the bank suspects illegal activity they freeze them. Never heard of anyone being on holiday and having their card declined etc? Find that very hard to believe.
The big freeze: frozen and locked bank accounts
In the past year alone, Resolver has received more than 1,000 complaints from people who have had their bank accounts frozen, blocked or even closed – often without warning. Frozen account complaints The ‘big freeze’ has become more prolific in…
Seems like a good security measure but not very good if you are in a restaurant in Spain and your card gets declined or you've filled up your car with petrol and have no way of paying before you leave.
Apple is down 20% since December. Tesla is down 62% since last July.
It is not bitcoin holders that would lose the most of the internet was switched off. Everything runs through the internet these days. The whole world would be ****ed.
Yeah, and things like Nvidia are up ~1600% in 5 years or 180% in a year. But nobody in their right mind should only invest in single stocks/ areas, or allocate large amounts/ % to anything, like Apple, Tesla or Sirus Minerals etc. It's a one way ticket to the poor house. Just investing in the whole S&P 500 would have got 20% in the last year, and probably not moved more than 10% from the general trend line. Global All Cap is up 16% (heavily weighted by S&P500), not as good but slightly less volatile. Both very easy to do with very low fees, and can be put in an ISA or whatever.
The problem with bitcoin or crypto is that volatility, but it can also be it's best asset if people have plenty of time or cash where they can take the risk on it, but there won't be many professional investors advising people to go more than 5% on crypto I imagine.
Yeah, everyone would be screwed if the internet went down or the world collapsed, that wasn't my point, my point is that bitcoin doesn't solve that. Physical cash/ gold, fuel, food, guns would probably be the largest value assets in those scenarios. Some people like preppers etc plan for such events, most don't though.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I wouldn't class something heavily volatile as a store of value, generally with things like that people don't know when they might need full access to it, so they're not going to want it to be too volatile.
I don't invest much in gold, probably a small % held in some account to hedge against crashes, but I'm pretty certain it bets inflation long term, a lot use it as an inflation hedge but that's probably more suited to old people. Younger folk can take more risk and get more growth and use something like the S&P500 or all cap to hedge against inflation.
You're right about those in poor countries with a poor currency, their own currency can be dangerous, and feast or famine, but I would assume those with internet access are also able to get a bank account and invest outside of their country, to make it safer. Some countries are poor for this though, and this is probably why some locals abroad happily accept dollars, and some prefer them. No idea what the people do who don't have a bank account, but I imagine most don't have internet access either.
The way I see it, everything has a place, but people just need to be aware of what things are good at and what they're very bad at. It's going to be different with everyone too, largely due to age, and when they might want their money, or when they might need it.
I see it something like the below:
Crypto - Extremely volatile, high reward but also potential of high losses, time that wrong and it's very dangerous, potential for very long periods of massive negative equity, ie 2017 to 2020, or 2021-2024, if timed wrong, but regular investing can help solve this.
Individual stocks - volatility depends on the company, most won't get the returns of crypto, but most won't have the troughs as deep either, could have a couple of years of negative equity, if timed wrong, but regular investing can help solve this.
S&P 500/ Global all cap - About as safe as you can get long term, as extremely diversified, good returns if you can put up with possibility of temporarily troughs of around 30%.
Property - ie pay of the mortgage, good if the rate is high, bad if the rate is good, should also beat inflation
Gold/ Bonds - less volatile than stocks, beats inflation, but not a great return, fairly safe
Savings accounts - most barely match inflation, but good for easy access
Bank accounts - gets eaten by inflation, very easy access
Physical cash - gets eaten by inflation, very risky to hold large amounts (theft/ damage etc)
Crypto almost certainly will be up in 10 years, but the key thing is from what date are you starting to look at and what date are you ending on? i.e from what price to where and when? Some will get this right, a lot will get it wrong. Seems risky to just lump in, especially after a big rise as after each time that's happened there's been a big drop for time. Chucking small amounts into it each month will probably work out ok though if people have a lot of time.
VladKinder
Well-known member
Here is a table from Fidelity (both they and Blackrock have Bitcoin ETFs now, which are the fastest growing ETFs in history)
Economist Lyn Alden has noticed this when visiting South America and Africa.
In the past when countries had two currencies:
The local currency and the U.S Dollar, people would hold onto their dollars because it was stronger than their local currency which was getting debased at an alarming rate.
Now in these countries they spend their local currency, then the dollar and keep hold of Bitcoin.
Why? Because it's stronger than both.
You don't spend your hardest/strongest asset, you hold it because it increases in value against failing fiat currencies (they are all failing, just some quicker than others).
So just in the same way you will never see anyone in Asda paying with a gold bar, people will never pay in Bitcoin.
It's a store of value. A better version of Gold in almost every way.
The next generations will laugh at us for ever doubting this.
P.S Bitcoin and Crypto are not the same thing, if you think they are you have no right having a view on Bitcoin.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Fidelity want people to buy bitcoin, or crypto, they make 1% on the spread for the buy and the sale.
Again durable doesn't mean anything, 1's and 0's stored on computers are as durable as anything debit cards overtook cash in 2017, cash is largely irrelevant to most people in the developed world.
Divisible doesn't matter, they're all divisible enough. Bitcoin is divisible to 0.1 cents, the dollar to a cent, who cares?
Fungible doesn't mean anything, I can buy items in dollars from my sterling bank account, heck I've even used US dollars in Canada.
Portable doesn't matter, people don't generally keep actually gold, they just buy gold stock. People do use gold for jewellery though, that's portable, but a big gold bar necklace wouldn't make any sense.
Verifiable - Sure, bitcoin is verifiable with an online transaction, but how are you mean to do that with a physical transaction? Gold and dollars can both be tested to see if they're counterfeit, but again it doesn't matter as physical use is pretty much no longer required.
Scarce - Sure gold and bitcoin are scarce, but they're divisible so why does it matter? What happens when miners lose interest in mining, the same people who hold a lot of bitcoin, what if they lose interest and decide to sell it all off? Bitcoin is no more scarce than stock, if demand goes up, the price will, but if demand goes down the price drops.
Track record - bitcoin does have a track record to be fair, but the early days until after the first big peak are probably worth ignoring. The track record is volatile, that's good for some, not for others. It may become less volatile but who knows.
As for the Lyn Alden bit, it depends when you visit somewhere I suppose. People won't "spend" bitcoin as you largely can't. A lot of people hold it to get through the troughs etc and possibly sell at the peaks, but some will just hold for a long time, it's different to physical local currency or dollars, a transaction can be made in 1 second with those.
One minute people are comparing it to physical assets then one minute they're saying it's not that, it's an investment, which is it? It doesn't really get used for transactions, so why compare it with things which do, just compare it with other investments?
Gold is a relatively poor store of value long term, it gets murdered by the likes of the S&P 500, NASDAQ etc for most timeframes, but it's good as part of a hedge against those, for when times are rough.
If you're going to use a debt table, use the one as % of GDP, it's a lot more relevant, or at least have comparators for the value of inflation or the stock market etc. You can't avoid being part of the national debt either. The debt is held by bonds/ pension funds/ insurance companies etc.
Not sure what "backed by energy means" on the other image, is that referring to how much energy gets used maintaining it, even though it's had little real world use? Making the calculations/ mining harder, using more energy for the sake of it, seems a bit of a daft idea and a waste of energy. What happens when the miners stop mining it, who maintains it then? I've heard they drop the difficulty of the calculations and then bitcoin trading fees pay them, does that mean trading fees will rocket?
The chart there is just similar to some developing companies issuing shares. Then when they get big enough they stop issuing them, and some even start to buy them back, like Apple and google have done etc. I don't think there's a plan to reduce the number of bitcoin is there?
Bitcoin was pretty much the first cryptocurrency, so people call it crypto for short, I'm fine with that. I'm well aware crypto is also short for cryptography, I first came across the term when loading secret encrypted security codes to fighter jets over 20 years ago.
Like I keep saying, investing in bitcoin is fine, but if you're going to do it, do it as a small %, like nearly every reputable investors would advise.
Middlesbrough123
Well-known member
So are we thinking it’s about to drop to 44k and then double by September 
?
? VladKinder
Well-known member
It's impossible to guess the short term. That is for gamblers.
Anyone who has held BTC for three years or more are in profit.
People though, tend to FOMO and have a herd behaviour in anything that can be invested in.
It's important not to give in to this.
Anyone in 1999 who thought Microsoft would be one of the biggest companies in the world were right.
Unfortunately everyone else had the same idea and if you had invested then you would have lost money (on paper) for 16 years before being in profit.
As for BTC you just need to understand one thing:
It is strong and fiat currencies are weak.
So this will continue (although not in a straight line):
Eventually all fiat currencies go to zero.
It's only worth something because Governments say it is.
It's not linked to physical reserves.
It loses value to inflation.
It can became worthless due to hyperinflation.
When people lose faith in it or the Nation it belongs to it becomes worthless.
It gets printed to infinity.
It gets debased (Argentina).
Banks don't have your money, it's an IOU, and you can be locked out of the system (Cyprus).
My Bitcoin is verified on the Blockchain.
It is infinite.
It is immutable.
I can carry around any amount on a small device.
No one can confiscate it.
It has network effect (just like the internet).
Not one fraudulent activity in 15 years (as opposed to 6% of all debit/credit card)
No one can create more of it (unlike Gold).
It solves the double spend problem.
Over the long term it will gain value against fiat.
Because it's programmed to be scarce, whilst the powers that be will make their money more and more worthless.
That is just how it is.
Redwurzel
Well-known member
What if there were no "small devices"?
Don't digital black mailers demand Bitcoin as payment?
Gold has risen from $35 (1971) to $ 2,300 (2024) that's about 66 fold increase - UK inflation is around 25 fold increase. It has kept ahead of inflation and the UK stockmarket. It can be held in ETFs and divided into what ever pieces are requited to my knowledge. Weight is not really relevant.
No one can create Gold its a naturally occurring metal that humans have searched for for over 5,000 years. New mining adds a very small percentage to the total supply.
Some of the so called facts published by organisations are organisations pushing the sale of bitcoin to clients.
They often don't mention gold and bitcoin don't pay dividends or provide interest which say other investments can such as shares. The average person needs a very well balanced portfolio of assets if they are lucky enough to to have wealth. To me bit coin and/or gold should never be more than 10%.
Don't digital black mailers demand Bitcoin as payment?
Gold has risen from $35 (1971) to $ 2,300 (2024) that's about 66 fold increase - UK inflation is around 25 fold increase. It has kept ahead of inflation and the UK stockmarket. It can be held in ETFs and divided into what ever pieces are requited to my knowledge. Weight is not really relevant.
No one can create Gold its a naturally occurring metal that humans have searched for for over 5,000 years. New mining adds a very small percentage to the total supply.
Some of the so called facts published by organisations are organisations pushing the sale of bitcoin to clients.
They often don't mention gold and bitcoin don't pay dividends or provide interest which say other investments can such as shares. The average person needs a very well balanced portfolio of assets if they are lucky enough to to have wealth. To me bit coin and/or gold should never be more than 10%.
VladKinder
Well-known member
No small devices (hardware wallets) are needed, but it's what I use.
We are still in the early stages of a new technology/asset and new and other solutions will come.
As it is there are many options.
My bitcoin is held on the blockchain, which can not be changed.
The hardware device is just a key. If I lose it not an issue. I just buy another and put in information only I know.
As for fraud, criminals use fiat far more than Bitcoin. You can trace Bitcoin far better than fiat.
Crypto Fraud is Less Than 1% of the Annual $3.2 Trillion in Illegal Activity in the Traditional Fiat Monetary System
To counterbalance the current obsession with the ongoing FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried trial - and its impact on the future of trust in the cryptocurrency marketplace - we finally tracked down the baseline quantative metrics which illuminate a string we have been trying to pull all year: the current...
www.oodaloop.com
Gold:
I have some myself for diversification, but I shouldn't really. It's a very poor investment long term.
It tends to do very well when there is catalyst such as Nixon taking the dollar off the Gold Standard in 1971, or the advent of Gold ETFs (paper gold) in the 2000s.
Unfortunately there is more paper gold than actual gold. Gold tends to be mined at some point after someone buys the ETF to meet the demand.
It's very controlled and easily manipulated.
Dividends are not a free lunch. They are giving away by companies instead of them reinvesting in the company.
Large dividend payers are often companies with nothing else to offer.
The FTSE offers nearly 3x the amount of dividends than the S&P 500 but it's performance has been a disaster.
But generally you buy anything that will increase value against fiat.
The rich can't get rid of fiat fast enough. They invest with it, buy property, buy art, buy gold, and now they buy Bitcoin.
As Eric Voorhees says here, Why would you hold something that lost 98% of it's value in the last 100 years?
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Middlesbrough123
Well-known member
If a country bans it the surely the value of btc will drop
Redwurzel
Well-known member
Vlad
The chart you put up is a bit misleading - Gold has risen from around $250 in 1999 to $2,300 - I remember the $250 because Gordon Brown sold a lot of the UK reserves of Gold - that's a 900% increase, but your chart makes it look like a tiny increase. In pounds the increase is even higher because the pound has lost value against the dollar. 900% in 25 years is excellent to me. The Gold price is not easily manipulated nor is the supply. I would accept a commodity like Diamonds can be controlled as one company De Beers used to buy nearly all the new mined product and had an enormous stock, but no one as ever fully controlled the Gold market except in a James Bond film.
The bit coin increase looks fantastic, but many ordinary little people have lost their money through fraud and their return is thus minus. Crypto has been a bit of a murky world to date including the period of the chart. It will become less murky, but the returns will reflect this, if this happens.
There are many businesses that generate dividends and still invest in their company example AstraZeneca - they own some of the top brands of pharma drugs in the World that people are using more and more - they pay about 2.1% dividend and have paid dividends for many years and still brought out new products. In the last 10 years the share price has risen about 250%. Not spectacular but well above UK price inflation (40%?).
I do think Large Tech shares are still a good long term investment, billions happily use their products daily. Google, Meta, Apple, Microsoft plus the big chip manufacturers.
Uranium could be interesting for a very small % investment - the World must have to use a lot more atomic produced electricity in 20 years time. Gas, Coal and Oil will be almost gone and Wind/Solar can only do so much, especially without massive storage.
I do agree the wealthy are buying real things in general with their wealth, everyone is trusting cash less. Governments in general are printing/creating the stuff to pay their bills rather than collecting taxes and cutting expenditure, so the ruling politicians can please their voters and donators.
The chart you put up is a bit misleading - Gold has risen from around $250 in 1999 to $2,300 - I remember the $250 because Gordon Brown sold a lot of the UK reserves of Gold - that's a 900% increase, but your chart makes it look like a tiny increase. In pounds the increase is even higher because the pound has lost value against the dollar. 900% in 25 years is excellent to me. The Gold price is not easily manipulated nor is the supply. I would accept a commodity like Diamonds can be controlled as one company De Beers used to buy nearly all the new mined product and had an enormous stock, but no one as ever fully controlled the Gold market except in a James Bond film.
The bit coin increase looks fantastic, but many ordinary little people have lost their money through fraud and their return is thus minus. Crypto has been a bit of a murky world to date including the period of the chart. It will become less murky, but the returns will reflect this, if this happens.
There are many businesses that generate dividends and still invest in their company example AstraZeneca - they own some of the top brands of pharma drugs in the World that people are using more and more - they pay about 2.1% dividend and have paid dividends for many years and still brought out new products. In the last 10 years the share price has risen about 250%. Not spectacular but well above UK price inflation (40%?).
I do think Large Tech shares are still a good long term investment, billions happily use their products daily. Google, Meta, Apple, Microsoft plus the big chip manufacturers.
Uranium could be interesting for a very small % investment - the World must have to use a lot more atomic produced electricity in 20 years time. Gas, Coal and Oil will be almost gone and Wind/Solar can only do so much, especially without massive storage.
I do agree the wealthy are buying real things in general with their wealth, everyone is trusting cash less. Governments in general are printing/creating the stuff to pay their bills rather than collecting taxes and cutting expenditure, so the ruling politicians can please their voters and donators.