sherlock
Well-known member
If I irritate someone with your abhorrent values, I’m happy I’m on the right side.
Interest rates predicted to rise again tomorrow….
- Thread starter sherlock
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If I irritate someone with your abhorrent values, I’m happy I’m on the right side.
BoroMart
Well-known member
So why do you think the trained economic experts in the BoE raised inflation?
They've only got one button so they keep pushing it.
They are following other central bank's lead so as not to devalue the pound but there is no reason any country should be raising rates because inflation is being caused by a specific thing and raising interest rates isn't going to reverse that thing. It would have been better for all those countries to wait it out. Raising rates reduces consumer spending which reduces inflation but that only works if it is consumer spending, aka demand, that is causing the inflation. Inflation has been caused by a reduction in supply, not demand. Raising interest rates is just piling further costs on people.
Pak_Doo_Ik
Well-known member
Hang on, trained economic experts, they are one trick ponies with one set of rules that must be follow, namely high inflation, raise interest rates, in times of recession cut interest rates and repeat. These experts never thought inflation would go above 5%, they then reassessed and thought it wouldn’t go above 7.5% and only last month they were shocked because it hardly moved. If they are the bl00dy experts then god help us!!!
The sudden increase in inflation last year was purely driven by the huge increase in energy costs and no amount of interest rate hikes would have stopped that.
All the BoE have succeeded in doing is ensuring families on the breadline struggle for a little longer and the people who can afford to put money in to savings are better off.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Where did you do your masters in economics that shows that you are right and all the experts in the central banks are wrong? They have far greater depth of knowledge in these areas than you or I
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
If the hadn’t acted they would be more families suffering and the suffering would be more impactful
BoroMart
Well-known member
What they say and what they believe are different. If they publically state interest is going to go through the roof, that will unsettle markets. Also one person stating they don't believe it doesn't mean they all don't believe it.
They have a set of rules and targets. That's their job, if you have a problem with the job then maybe that's down to the the people that set the targets and rules for the BoE.
BoroMart
Well-known member
It's hilarious reading all these non-experts with their silver bullet theories on the complexities of micro and macro economics. It's easy to post how simple complex economic strategy is, but actually doing it is another kettle of fish. Dumbing it down to a couple of comments on a message board is not being an economist. It was the same with brexit, get rid of rules, bring back control, it's easy....
MolteniArcore
Well-known member
Just out of interest why is a reduction in supply different from an increase in demand? Surely if there is a reduction in supply then the demand increases?
The energy prices have caused much of the inflation we are seeing - interest rates won’t have an effect on that as we all HAVE to buy the energy. All the rate increases have done is stunt growth and make people who have mortgages a lot poorer. I doubt it has had much, if any, effect on reducing inflation which appears to be dropping as the energy prices drop. Apart from in the UK…
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Yes totally agree, you can’t simplify it too, we have the highest inflation therefore increasing rates hasn’t done anything.
Reduction in supply of an essential good doesn't reduce demand. People are buying it because they need it. Raising interest rates won't reduce their demand for it. Demand is static. Compare to when general inflation is happening and people are spending more because they have more then that can be curbed by reducing the amount of money they have to spend.
Pak_Doo_Ik
Well-known member
It’s nothing like Brexit, if the BoE were such experts how did inflation get so high in the first place? Surely an expert could have reacted to the surge in energy prices quicker, Metin Lewis was giving consumers 3 months notice of what to expect?
Interest rate rises are designed to curb spending, hence the demand for goods/services should diminish so the cost should likewise follow suit and hey presto inflation will be back under control and people accept that.
Now where it all goes wrong is when the service you are talking about is energy and consumers have no choice but to buy, interest rates can be increased as much as you want but the demand will not diminish.
Sorry that I don’t have a degree in economics but I’m not sure you really need one to figure that out.
But let’s no worry eh, as the BoE experts also believe the other way to stop inflation is to ensure wages don’t increase by the same rate. Do I’m sure all those defending the experts will be on board with that decision and will soon be calling for the strikes to stop as the experts know what they doing and of course must be right.
Jonny Ingbar
Well-known member
I think the BoE are using the only very limited tool they have at their disposal, which only demonstrates how impotent it is.
It's obvious that the current situation is a symptom of an unregulated market and, dare I say, late stage capitalism.
I'm not sure what comes next, but corporations and big business needs reeling in, otherwise the problem will only remain.
Paintolerance
Well-known member
I actually do have a degree in economics, but Pak, who doesn't, sums it it up perfectly.
Interest rate rises stop you borrowing money to buy stuff you don't need. We are screwed when we are borrowing money for heating and eating.
Regulate the huge companies screwing us into the dirt.
ThatFragranceGuy
Well-known member
thing is there are lots of things people are buying they need & services, but I've still seen people buying new cars, computers, designer gear, TVs, eating out and fry and get a builder to do an extension and the waiting list is still massive so increasing rates would affect all those also
I don't have a masters, just a BSc.
I didn't say ours were wrong to raise it. They have to because others have. As soon as the 1st one jumped, or at least the US, then everyone else has to follow suit. There might be a reason that they did that wasn't correct or because it politically benefited them in a different way. A lot of times people do what they think they should do because that's what is expected of them rather than what is actually correct. As for these experts knowing best then you can go back and check the voting records and you will find that the experts are rarely unanimously in favour of the same decision so either there isn't a right answer or there is and some of the experts are wrong.
Borothruandthru
Well-known member
Correct.
I wonder sometimes why we are aiming for 2 % inflation. That to me especially since the brexit disaster will leave us in a state of economic decline.
They need to tolerate maybe 4 % Inflation a d then at least we could get a bit of growth, versus the stagnation caused by high interest rates.
Archiestephens_elbow
Well-known member
I did 3 lots of washing and ironing yesterday. Batch Cooked some meals for the week in electric oven, we had 4 baths/showers.
No central heating.
At bed time the smart meter was showing £10 spent.
How are you supposed to cut down on that?
No central heating.
At bed time the smart meter was showing £10 spent.
How are you supposed to cut down on that?
Pak_Doo_Ik
Well-known member
Obviously by paying more on your borrowing and ensuring your wages don’t rise in line with inflation.
h_m_boro
Well-known member
Remember, quite a few economists had semis on over the Truss / Kwarteng mini budget, hailed it as brilliant.........
Follow a couple of economists on twitter and, while a lot of the stuff goes well over my head, they have been going mental about the interest rate rises and basically saying the BoE is incompetent. There are a number of alternatives but they seem to take this option consistently?
Follow a couple of economists on twitter and, while a lot of the stuff goes well over my head, they have been going mental about the interest rate rises and basically saying the BoE is incompetent. There are a number of alternatives but they seem to take this option consistently?