How many points will be needed for the playoffs?
- Thread starter parmoboy
- Start date
Because it's not about us just winning. It's the combination of us suddenly hitting best team in the league form and the three teams below us (and the ones just below) not matching or bettering us but almost collapsing. It's very difficult to climb the league when you are high up. 3 points doesn't seem much but if we win on Saturday and Norwich also win then we have gained nothing and lost an extra game to make points up. If it was a straight shootout between just us and Norwich then there is a good chance because we would only need to be 5 points better than them and that can be achieved with us being good and them being crap but all the chasing teams aren't going to be crap. Even if we win on Saturday and Norwich lose we might be 2 points off the playoffs but Hull and Coventry will have a game in hand which if they win will put them 5 and 4 points above us again. Then you get the weeks where it goes the other way and we fail to win while everyone else does. 5 points at this stage of the season is massive. We need the form of Leicester, aka on for 102 points, just to get to 73 which assumes that the 3 teams above us only continue their season trajectory to 71/72.
There is probably a 2-3% chance of it happening which is basically the same as no chance. We can win 7 of the next 9 games and still finish outside of the playoffs. That would be 10 wins from 12 which I think even the most optimistic Boro fan would tell you has pretty much no chance of happening.
The Card Cheat
Well-known member
Ok bud.
Frozen Horse
Well-known member
The bookies basically agree with you I suppose: 25/1 is a fair reflection of what you say.
The only thing I'd take issue with is that it's not 10 wins from 12 from here, is it, it's 7 from 9. Nothing can take those last 3 wins away from us, and they don't make us less likely to win out next match. If anything, they make us slightly more likely to win the next match.
I think were too far behind too many teams, and one of them will put together a strong enough run to hold us off unless we put a ridiculous run together.
Rofesleg
Well-known member
Never mind how many teams are involved and how many ppg they might need.
If we win 8 out of 9 we'll be in the playoffs.
If we win 7 out of 9 we'll probably be in the playoffs.
If we win 6 out of 9 we probably won't be.
If we win 5, we won't be in the playoffs.
That's all that we can control and all that matters really.
OK, draws confuse things a bit but you get my drift
If we win 8 out of 9 we'll be in the playoffs.
If we win 7 out of 9 we'll probably be in the playoffs.
If we win 6 out of 9 we probably won't be.
If we win 5, we won't be in the playoffs.
That's all that we can control and all that matters really.
OK, draws confuse things a bit but you get my drift
TeaCider
Well-known member
Hull's game in hand is against Coventry.
Whatever the result there, if we win on Saturday, we have closed the gap on at least one of them to a single result. If it ends in a draw then it's on both of them.
If we keep winning, we're overtaking them both.
If we don't keep winning, we're not making the play-offs anyway, especially when one of the teams we play is Hull.
Norwich have one of the worst away forms in the league and the majority of their remaining fixtures are away from home.
Obviously we also have one of the worst home forms, and the majority of ours are at home, but we'd need to be winning regardless to make up the gap.
Whatever the result there, if we win on Saturday, we have closed the gap on at least one of them to a single result. If it ends in a draw then it's on both of them.
If we keep winning, we're overtaking them both.
If we don't keep winning, we're not making the play-offs anyway, especially when one of the teams we play is Hull.
Norwich have one of the worst away forms in the league and the majority of their remaining fixtures are away from home.
Obviously we also have one of the worst home forms, and the majority of ours are at home, but we'd need to be winning regardless to make up the gap.
Ex Footy Legs
Well-known member
Is there a chance of having Hackney back after the break; I thought he was ruled out for the foreseeable!
Same goes for Josh Coburn ?
And surely Fry will be close or ready to return
If they were ready to make the bench it would be massive.
What about bangura. ?
Ex Footy Legs
Well-known member
You never know though, even with the injuries, we’ve got the players to be competitive against the best teams.
If we beat Blackburn there will be some atmosphere at soton as we’ll probably take a few thousand despite the long journey….
Blackburn first though….!!
Correct
The top 4 this season have gained 32 more points than the top 4 had at this stage last season, but the 5th and 6th place have the same amount of points.
Unless the top 4 have a nightmare run of form (which isn't going to happen), that means the 5th and 6th place will probably finish on similar or worse than they did last season, which was 70 and 69.
Sunderland who finished 6th last season - after 37 games - were down in 12th with only 52 points. Coventry who finished 5th were down in 9th on 54.
Realistically, West Brom have probably already got 5th due to the fixtures - They only play Leicester and Preston from the top 10, where the others (current 6th 7th 8th and 9th) all play each other.
Boro for example have Southampton, Hull, Ipswich and Leeds.
So to finish 6th we need 70 points.
17 points from a possible 27. We can only afford to lose 3 more games.
Unless the top 4 have a nightmare run of form (which isn't going to happen), that means the 5th and 6th place will probably finish on similar or worse than they did last season, which was 70 and 69.
Sunderland who finished 6th last season - after 37 games - were down in 12th with only 52 points. Coventry who finished 5th were down in 9th on 54.
Realistically, West Brom have probably already got 5th due to the fixtures - They only play Leicester and Preston from the top 10, where the others (current 6th 7th 8th and 9th) all play each other.
Boro for example have Southampton, Hull, Ipswich and Leeds.
So to finish 6th we need 70 points.
17 points from a possible 27. We can only afford to lose 3 more games.
parmoboy
Well-known member
That was my thinking, get the players pi$$ed enough before each game to believe we could actually do it.I thought you said how many "pints"?
Rofesleg
Well-known member
3 losses? I'll take that
Because let's be honest, if we lose 4 of our last 9 we don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway.
70 points won't be enough this year. One of either Norwich or Hull will pick up 4 wins from 9 needed to reach that mark. And with their superior goal differences (less so Hull) that would mean we need to pick up 18 points at least (6 wins from 9).
For context Norwich have 17 points from their last 9 games and Hull have 16 from their last 9 games. Even Coventry who have dropped off a bit in recent weeks have 14 points from their last 9 games. I'm not saying they're guaranteed to replicate that form when the pressure builds as the season ends, however, the idea that all three teams would drop to only getting 12 points from 9 seems unlikely.
Personally I think 72/73 will be needed for 6th spot which means 7 wins from 9 for us. All we can do is take it game by game, win each as it comes, and see where we end up.
You're probably right with needing 7 wins - I'm being hopeful and sticking to my 6 (3 losses) based on the results over the last 3 seasons.
22/23 - Millwall - 6th after 37 weeks - 60 points - Lost 5 out of 9 and finished on 68 points. It also happened to Blackburn this season.
21/22 - QPR - 5th after 37 weeks - 59 points - 2 wins out of 9 - finished on 66 points.
20/21 - Reading - 6th after 37 weeks - 61 points - 1 win out of 9 - finished on 70 points.
Norwich and Hull are currently on 58 points - so you could argue all of the above teams were having a better season than them at this point.
Hull have Leeds, Boro, Coventry, Ipswich and Watford still to play. Norwich have Leicester, Ipswich and Preston. Coventry have Leeds, Southampton, Hull and Ipswich.
Not saying it's guaranteed, and we do need it to happen to 2 or 3 teams instead of just 1 - but historically it happens year after year.
Rofesleg
Well-known member
I remember Akpom and Hackney sitting in the stands at Luton, having been given the night off after receiving EFL awards the night before.
Barlaser and Mowatt in midfield.
Crooks up front.
Bola wide left forward.
Complacency had set in I think because we were already guaranteed 3rd or 4th.
We lost to a dodgy penalty and never got going again.
