Hackney

Those that think that because Hackney has had injured this season he will have dropped off the radar of prem clubs are delusional. Clubs dont just have one guy watching MOTD in their scouting set ups any more (did they ever!), there will be detailed profiles of potential players with a mind boggling myriad of stats on those players.
Yes, his recent injuries' would be factored in to those stats - but dont for one second think he's dropped off the radar.

I would say (and this is based on nothing more than a gut feeling and using the information that I have gleaned from how it looks we operate as a club now), that Hackney will 'likely' be sold. At the very least there will be offers that we will explore. Indeed, there may be tentative offers on the table already. Hence his absence from the team despite a bench appearance a few weeks ago.

Lets not forget the role of agents here as well. Hackney may want to stay. His agent may be pushing for a deal (commission - I know, a cynical view but a realistic one), and the club may want to cash in. It might not even be down to Hackney at all.

A season or so ago I was getting quite down about the clubs new model. I hate seeing our best players leave. I'm thinking Tav specifically but also Akpom, Crooksy......but you know what, it's actually starting to work. Our squad value is slowly increasing and we are maintaining competitiveness.
 
GazBoro said:
Did we ever spend the Tavernier money?
Click to expand...
The thing is, the club runs at a loss. When we sell players and don't reinvest it, that money isn't being drawn out of the club as a big fat dividend for Gibbo. It's just reducing the amount of money Gibbo needs to inject. The Tavernier/Akpom/Rogers money isn't just sat in bags under Gibbo's bed.

FFP dictates how much money the club can lose / Gibbo can inject. So at times there may have been times we needed to sell. We were certainly under FFP pressure at the time of the Tavernier sale. We had made a lot of big signings in the previous years and had players on big wages. It may have been at that time that the club did NEED to sell.

We are no longer in that position. We don't NEED to sell. We have FFP headroom. We could spend a reasonable amount of money this summer (Circa £20m) with no sales and stay within FFP. Which is what Gibbo is referring to. That doesn't mean we won't sell though if offers come in. And it doesn't mean we will spend. It just means we could do that. But the club doesn't have that money. That would have to be funded by Gibbo. So it really comes down to what Gibbo is willing to contribute when it comes to net spend.
 
There are a lot of know it alls on here and the reality is none of us know if Hackney will be sold or not. My view is that is value has been affected by him missing half the season through injury. He has only proven himself over 1 season and I would be surprised we would get offers in excess of £15m this summer (I maybe completely wrong). I don't see the club selling unless we do get that sort of offer, Gibson said the other night we don't need to sell this summer. McGree is another player sold by half this board, again missed half the season, cant see many offers above £3-4m been made. Yes only 1 year left but I don't see him leaving unless we get that and may as well let go on a free next year unless at least £3-4m comes in. Not sure why Forss is touted as leaving, another injury prone player with 2 years left and a decent strike rate. Unless we get £5-6m why would we sell. Players have only left because they were very effective at the time of sale, the above 3 are not at this time.
 
festa5 said:
Pretty sure Scott spoke about Hackney when he was the radio not too long ago and said something along the lines of that he's happy to stay but of course all players have a price.

And things might have changed since then of course.

At the end of the day rumours are very easy to start and there's too many sad little men happy to make them up to try and appear "ITK". A lot of players will be wanted by bigger clubs. Easy to say I've heard xxxx is definitely going, because there's a fair chance there'll be interest anyway.

It's funny how all these ITK people missed quite a few of our summer signings, had no clue that Jones was out of the team last year due to personal problems and were confidently claiming inside knowledge that Clarke would never play football again.

Unless they come from a reliable source, such as a proper journalist, chances are most rumours are just made up bollox being spread around social media.
Click to expand...
There is a lot of bull$hit that goes flying around. That doesn't mean the OP doesn't have good grounds in his mind to believe it to be the case, the jury is still out.

The only poster on here I can remember being 100% nailed on in all his imparted transfer revelations coming to pass was Haverton Good Authority? Was always bang on the mark, that lad.



EDITED Addition,, having read through more posts; It's early days, but I see a lot of his ITK wisdom in Billy Zin👍
 
Last edited:
BigAl76 said:
Those that think that because Hackney has had injured this season he will have dropped off the radar of prem clubs are delusional. Clubs dont just have one guy watching MOTD in their scouting set ups any more (did they ever!), there will be detailed profiles of potential players with a mind boggling myriad of stats on those players.
Yes, his recent injuries' would be factored in to those stats - but dont for one second think he's dropped off the radar.

I would say (and this is based on nothing more than a gut feeling and using the information that I have gleaned from how it looks we operate as a club now), that Hackney will 'likely' be sold. At the very least there will be offers that we will explore. Indeed, there may be tentative offers on the table already. Hence his absence from the team despite a bench appearance a few weeks ago.

Lets not forget the role of agents here as well. Hackney may want to stay. His agent may be pushing for a deal (commission - I know, a cynical view but a realistic one), and the club may want to cash in. It might not even be down to Hackney at all.

A season or so ago I was getting quite down about the clubs new model. I hate seeing our best players leave. I'm thinking Tav specifically but also Akpom, Crooksy......but you know what, it's actually starting to work. Our squad value is slowly increasing and we are maintaining competitiveness.
Click to expand...

How is it delusional to think that a player who's had one good season in the second tier is going to be less highly rated after spending the majority of the next season injured, and performing at a lower level when he was fit?

It's delusional to think it won't have an impact.

His value will be lower, the interest will be lessened.

I'm certain there will still be clubs looking at him, and there's a decent chance that bids are made, but how this season has panned out for him will absolutely have decreased the valuation and rating.
 
Last edited:
binghamered said:
There are a lot of know it alls on here and the reality is none of us know if Hackney will be sold or not. My view is that is value has been affected by him missing half the season through injury.
Click to expand...
Possibly, it's also been positively influenced by a great performance and goal vs Chelsea and his England U21 performances, so I doubt an injury has really dropped his value significantly. He's had a disrupted season, it's not like his form fell off a cliff. Any scout watching him will have noted his technical and tactical ability is still there even if his match fitness wasn't.
 
I reckon a big part of Rogers add ons will be champions league qualification and they should achieve it. Also the fact he’s playing regularly and performing well.

We should get a few quid this summer before even making another sale.
 
Diego said:
I reckon a big part of Rogers add ons will be champions league qualification and they should achieve it. Also the fact he’s playing regularly and performing well.

We should get a few quid this summer before even making another sale.
Click to expand...
and if he stays fit next year, Villa will have a lot of games, so he will get plenty of game time to hit the other targets for payments to us.
 
BoroMart said:
and if he stays fit next year, Villa will have a lot of games, so he will get plenty of game time to hit the other targets for payments to us.
Click to expand...

Yep 👍. Fingers crossed they win the conference league too. That might be more money 👍
 
Last edited:
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
Why bandy about a phrase like 'entertain offers'?

Gibson has said we do not have to sell this summer.
Click to expand...
Because I think we will, although granted not the most accurate wording.

I'm not suggesting we'll actively be touting these players out but if an offer comes in we'll obviously consider it, as would almost any team in our position.

That second sentence is pretty vague too - we don't have to sell to what? Keep the club afloat as a going concern? Invest millions in an overhaul of the squad? More likely the former but if an offer comes in which would enable us to strengthen multiple other positions, and likely become stronger overall, why wouldn't we consider it?
 
Since relegation in 2017, the club's spend according to Transfermarkt each season has been in Euros:

2017-18 Paid Out 55.7m. Received 54.3m. Nett 1.4m Committed.
2018-19 Out 21.5m Received 48.1m. Nett 26.6m Surplus
2019-20 Out 3.5m. Received 14.2m. Nett 10.7m Surplus
2020-21 Out 4.3m. Received 0.4m. Nett 3.9m Committed
2021-22 Out 12.6m. Received 1.8m. Nett 10.8m Committed
2022-23 Out 10.2m. Received 27.4m. Nett 17.2m Surplus
2023-24 Out 14.8m. Received 25.7m. Nett 10.9m Surplus

The Club have generated 171.9m Euros in the last 7 seasons and Committed 122.6m.
A Transfer surplus of 49.3m at headline level.
This does not translate easily to P&L and therefore P&S calculation.

More significant is the combined wage bill and amortisation each season
Offset by Profit from Player sales (Price-Book Value)

2017-18 Wages. £48.7m Amortisation plus Impairment. £24.5m Profit Player Sales £15.3m. Nett £57.9m
2018-19 Wages £40.1m. A+I £27.6m Profit Player Sales £33.2m Nett £34.5m
2019-20 Wages £31.0m A+I. £18.4m Profit Player Sales. £3.5m. Nett £45.9m
2020-21. Wages £27.0m A+I £13.8m Profit Player Sales £4.3m. Nett £36.5m
2021-22 Wages £28.4m. A+I £8.0m Profit Player Sales £1.4m. Nett £35.0m
2022-23 Wages £29.6m. A+I £11.6m Profit Player Sales £22.3m. Nett £18.9m

Given that ticket sales barely cover the running costs of the operation, it means the Nett figures above need to be met by Media/Sponsorship/Commercial/Other revenue, or covered by Gibson.

2017-18 and 2018-19 Nett figures at least had Parachute Payments to help offset the very high wages and Monk fuelled amortisation.
There has been a massive shift post Covid which was a disaster for all clubs and owners.
Profit from Sale of players above their book value is a key aspect of funding the club.
Academy/Home nurtured players with no book value when sold are pure profit (Tav, Spence...Hackney)
Low fee purchases that have low book value are massive profit (Rogers, Akpom)

There are no new revenue streams prior to promotion, the club appears tens of millions pa short of automatic promotion wage bills. Gibson has not reinvested the sales into the squad, but he still has to fund heavily to keep us remotely competitive in this financial disaster of a league.

We don't know what the Accounts to June 2024 will say, but we do know there will be a big Profit from Player Sales of at least £20m and a likely reduction both wages and Amortisation.
I'd forecast the P&L to look healthier again, but purely though player sales, modest Amortisation (signings) and controlled wages.

From a P&S/FFP perspective the club is in greta shape and has massive scope to invest in the squad.
It will be interesting to see whether Gibson does.
 
Last edited:
I had just started my post 155 and accidentally posted it.
Have just put the figures into now so repost.
 
  • Like
Reactions: B_G
TeaCider said:
How is it delusional to think that a player who's had one good season in the second tier is going to be less highly rated after spending the majority of the next season injured, and performing at a lower level when he was fit?

It's delusional to think it won't have an impact.

His value will be lower, the interest will be lessened.

I'm certain there will still be clubs looking at him, and there's a decent chance that bids are made, but how this season has panned out for him will absolutely have decreased the valuation and rating.
Click to expand...
I was referring to a post on one of the earlier pages where the suggestion was that he'll have been forgotten about now because of missing the last few months through injury. The implication being that he wont be going anywhere because he's been out of the limelight for a while.
I agree that his valuation will be effected also. I dont think I said anywhere that it wouldnt? I think you're disagreeing with a point I didn't make.
Only reference I made to his value was that "Yes, his recent injuries' would be factored in" when referring to his current stats.
 
Humpty said:
Don't forget the cost of their wages too.
Click to expand...
That's the thing with selling a player for a large fee and replacing with 3 or 4 players. Even if the transfer fee is less, the wages will be more, on top of that selling someone for 15m and signing 4 players at 4m each will take 3 extra squad places up, which means you then have players without a squad place you need to sell on, and at a loss since you don't want them.
 
A lot of people have mentioned that Gibbo said we dont need to sell at his Q and A and are taking this as we won't sell.
After just reading through the Q&A thread (I wasn't there), @Juno10 has stated Gibbo said:

Morgan Rogers wanted to move. In the circumstances it was hard to stand in his way. Being offered a chance to earn 5x his salary and move closer to home...

This backs up what I, and plenty others, have said that we won't stand in players way when opportunities come up. Our recent history backs this up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top