Laughing
Well-known member
You are right local elections so follow different patterns to general.I read that a bad night for the Tories would be 400+ losses, and a decent night for Labour would be 250+ gains.
I’m not very clued up on local elections, but I believe people vote differently to a GE, and will vote for who they actually want in council, rather than who they need to vote for in order to get a party out, ie the Tories. So many will still vote Lib Dem or Green etc when they wouldn’t necessarily in a GE because it would be a wasted vote.
If, as some places are predicting, the Tories now lose 500 council seats, then it’s definitely a worse night than they were predicting, no matter how they try to paint it. Over the weekend they will focus on the West Midlands and Teesside mayor results as they come in, as they are likely going to be wins for them (Street and Houchen… Urghh) They’ll try and move on from the council losses and paint it as some sort of Tory victory claiming people do still believe in them, but they’ll struggle to shift the narrative if they really do lose on the order of 500.
After the weekend, there will probably be alsorts of manoeuvres by various twisted weirdos like Baddenoch to try and challenge Sunak for the leadership. I’m hoping that he throws a strop and calls a GE out of spite to those who he feels have constantly undermined him.
There are 3 main differences.
Turnout. Tends to be low in locals. 30% isn't unusual.
Protest votes. Some party supporters use the locals to protest their party, particularly if they are in power.
Thirdly. People do use their vote for local issues and select a candidate that has an agenda that matches your own.
Tories will try to spin the losses as mid term blues, despite 14 years of government.