25/1 for promotion

Redwurzel

Redwurzel

Well-known member
I am not saying promotion is likely, but if the 25/1 is available as quoted on Oddschecker its value (we have a better than 4% chance in my humble opinion - I would say more like 6%).

As a very measured punter I only bet very modestly on what I see as bargains.

Basis:

We have improved under Wilder (41 chances to 21 chances conceeded in our last 3 games = OK small sample but not insignificant)

We have had some poor luck in recent games (Millwall goal, Preston second goal, Huddersfield goal)

Its pretty obvious we will strengthen to some degree in the Jan window

If we get to the playoffs we will be on a roll.

The injury situation seems to be improving overall.

There is very little difference in the division between most of the teams - WBA went to Huddersfield only a week ago and lost 1-0 and we went there and won reasonably easily.

The international breaks seem to affect us a bit more negatively that some other teams. They have stopped for a while.

On the negative -

We have a gap of 6 points to get to 6th.

The squad is still a couple of players short and we still have 7 injuries with 2 likely out for a long time.
 
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Decent odds I reckon. Good manager, good squad, seems like a good team spirit. Not impossible we can do it with a couple of decent acquisitions.
 
would love to put that on BUT typical boro means my bet would mean the kiss of death for Boro, I never bet on us or against us.
 
25/1 is about the zenith for promotion as far as prices go, certainly in the short term.

I think we will finish in the top 6, about 5/1 now, and if we do there are obvious trading opportunities.

You could also get out right now on betfair at a lay at 11/1 for some profit and no risk. Not very exciting I know.
 
Laughing - I do trade on Betfair occasionally.

Someone could probably take the 25/1 (if still available) and then lay on Betfair for a profit as you say , but then bet on us again with the profit and so have a risk free promotion bet.

Money on us has pushed our price on Betfair @ home to Swansea down to 2.20 making us one of the strongest homes of the weekend in the Championship, thats against a team that was in the Play off final in May.
 
For me, and with this squad only
not a chance of making top 6 , it comes down to who we get in and who we bin in January .
defence is our main priority
 
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