Anyone think houchen will get back in?

If the people of Teesside who dislike Houchen get out & vote, he loses. Don't let voter apathy get in the way of giving the whole damned lot of them a bloody nose...because make no mistake, as great for Teesside getting rid will be, it will also hammer yet another huge nail into the coffin of the Tories.
 
Ironops said:

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According to this betting website he’s going to lose.

Saw a poll recently that said the same

Fingers crossed
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As per my post above it's not a good indicator. There's only a small amount traded and odds will move fast if any money goes down.
 
It is a big thing for the tories.

Honestly, I have heard nothing from the Labour Party as to who is standing and what the policies are.

Labour will win the general election, so it will be terrible for Teesside to have Ben in with a 400 plus Labour majority.

Id he wins a bet a general election is called. The tories are toast.
 
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👀... I think (and hope!) that his longstanding association with the Tories will be enough for people to get rid. Even up in the North East, people generally want the Tories out for what they've done to this country.
 
If he goes, alongside the predicted Tory annihilation at the locals, then I can imagine Sunak is toast.
 
Piccadilly Day Tripper said:
Yes, he'll win. He's made it very clear that anything he has announced - whether good, bad or implausible - will just disappear if he's voted out. I think too many people have bought the 'at least he's trying' and 'Labour did nowt for years and only block and complain' narrative. Turnout for these elections are usually very low compared to MP elections, so he's probably counting on that to get him over the line.
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Back in the 60s and 70s the very working class town of Northwich in Cheshire always used to have a Tory MP. It was against the grain of the make up of the constituency but all the Tories did was repeat one particular lie and the Town fell for it every election time. The lie was Labour would nationalise ICI. It put the frighteners up everybody even though it was palpably untrue. The Tories have always employed fear tactics
 
There is a very interesting book about the fall of Labour heartlands to the Tories by Sebastian Payne and it's relevant to Houchen because he is closely aligned to the tactics of Johnson.

When the author spoke to people who went Tory, it was predominantly about 'talking up the area.' Not immigration, economic improvement or palpable evidence; a lot of people are genuinely happy to just hear positive language being used about where they live.

This makes it hard to campaign against people like Houchen, like it was very tough to campaign against the SNP under Salmond: genuine criticism and the highlighting of realities just falls on deaf ears to people who simply don't care about anything opposed to nice things.
 
I think there's little doubt that he's going to win. You shouldn't underestimate the sheer desperation, gullibility and ignorance of the local electorate - all you have to do is take a look at any facebook post about the airport, Teesworks, the mayoral election and it's clear that people have no idea and just suck up the hyperbole.

The power of social media is immense in an area like this, people take what they read on there as gospel and don't have the inclination to do any genuine research of their own, and unfortunately one thing you can't knock Ben for is the exploitation of this and his team's social media skills. This is what will win it for him.
 
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