Championship relegation battle

I don't think we will be anywhere near going down, but only having two games left at home to teams below us is quite worrying.

49,41,44,49,44,43,51,49 and 46 was the points needed to stay up, so we're only two wins away I would say, based on that list.

Another concerning thing though is there is only one team which isn't already on a point per game, or more, so it could take 50+ to stay up.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I said we didn't have much chance then, and I don't think we have much chance of relegation now for the same reason.

It's not the number of points between the playoffs/relegation zone and us; it's the number of teams.

Any of the teams below us could overtake us except Rotherham. To be relegated, we'd need at least 8 out of 9 teams to overtake us. They won't all prove good enough to do that.
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I don't completely disagree but over the last 6 games there has only been 1 team that isn't Rotherham that has been worse than us (and that is Watford who are above us on GD). Over the last 6 games those 9 teams have been:
Sheff Wed +8 better
Stoke +2
Hudd +6
Brum +2
QPR +9
Millwall +2
Blackburn +2
Plymouth 0
Swans +5

I do think we will be safe but another 6 games like the last 6 and it won't be looking good. Those 9 teams have averaged 4 points more than us each in those 6 games. Over 11 games that would 7.3 which would be enough to overtake us. We just have to hope that even if we have a disastrous end to the season that other teams do as well.
 
Andy_W said:
49,41,44,49,44,43,51,49 and 46 was the points needed to stay up, so we're only two wins away I would say, based on that list.
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Those are the points totals of the 21st team. They didn't need all those points to survive.

To finish above 22nd, you needed 45, 38, 44, 49, 41, 42, 51, 41, 42 points in each season. That's ignoring the possibility of surviving on GD.

Now, both sets of numbers are 25th team arguments: they're equally valid or invalid, depending how you look at it.

Each season is, of course, unique, but 44 points has been enough to survive in 6 of the last 9 seasons.
 
And to think that was only 13 months ago!!!

We had 8 shots 6 of them on target scoring 5... when we had a potent attack of Ramsey Archer & Akpom...

I would take a 1-1 draw on Wednesday night.... But I fear we could lose the game if they come at us.



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Frozen Horse said:
Those are the points totals of the 21st team. They didn't need all those points to survive.

To finish above 22nd, you needed 45, 38, 44, 49, 41, 42, 51, 41, 42 points in each season. That's ignoring the possibility of surviving on GD.

Now, both sets of numbers are 25th team arguments: they're equally valid or invalid, depending how you look at it.

Each season is, of course, unique, but 44 points has been enough to survive in 6 of the last 9 seasons.
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Ah yeah, fair point!

I still think this year is going to need 50+ like, which is a rarity, which your corrected numbers even indicate more.

44 will be nowhere near enough this year, not when we start getting towards the end of the season and the sides who can't make play-offs and can't get relegated go on holiday.
 
I read on line if results go against us we could be bottom three by the end of the weekend. Is that actually possible?
 
Alwaysaborolad said:
But I fear we could lose the game if they come at us.
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To counter this, I hope they do come at us as I genuinely believe that is our best way of winning the game.

Against the teams that come at us, we have enough on the counter to hurt them, whereas we don't seem to be good enough to break teams down.

There's no surprise we've taken 6pts from Leicester, 3 from Saints...and then only 1/6 from Rotherham, 0/6 v Stoke... etc
 
Duffman said:
I read on line if results go against us we could be bottom three by the end of the weekend. Is that actually possible?
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I wouldn't have thought so Millwall and Birmingham play each other on Saturday.

Edit: Yes I've started checking out other teams fixtures.🙄
 
Nano said:
I don't completely disagree but over the last 6 games there has only been 1 team that isn't Rotherham that has been worse than us (and that is Watford who are above us on GD). Over the last 6 games those 9 teams have been:
Sheff Wed +8 better
Stoke +2
Hudd +6
Brum +2
QPR +9
Millwall +2
Blackburn +2
Plymouth 0
Swans +5
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If you assume that those teams get double those gains in their next 12 fixtures (I know a few only have 11 to play, but let's be pessimistic), we'd still finish above Stoke, Brum, Millwall, Blackburn, Plymouth and, of course, Rotherham.

I don't want to breed complacency, and we should be going into every match still with the intention of winning it: let's aim for 36 points from our last 12! However, even awful form, half a point a game on average, will see us stay up from here.
 
Marvanelli said:
To counter this, I hope they do come at us as I genuinely believe that is our best way of winning the game.

Against the teams that come at us, we have enough on the counter to hurt them, whereas we don't seem to be good enough to break teams down.

There's no surprise we've taken 6pts from Leicester, 3 from Saints...and then only 1/6 from Rotherham, 0/6 v Stoke... etc
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Yeah I get ya point, but i'm thinking of how we dilly dally, tippy tappy at the back, with defenders who are not comfortable at passing it around, and if Norwich, as other teams have shown, know this is how we try and play, Try been the operative word... and they press up as a unit, a bit like Plymouth did the other week, then we could be in trouble.
 
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You'd think we'd be OK. It would be some achievement to be relegated with the amount of points we had secured before the seasons halfway point.

I think the Boro breakdown pod said we were 17 points from the bottom 3 at the end of Jan. So we've been in freefall.

Two massive games in QPR and Blackburn. They are arguably in the 'must not lose' bracket. I can't say 'must win' as we don't look like beating anyone.

Stoke were absolutely adismal prior to sat. So the scary part is that how much better they looked than us😕
 
Frozen Horse said:
If you assume that those teams get double those gains in their next 12 fixtures (I know a few only have 11 to play, but let's be pessimistic), we'd still finish above Stoke, Brum, Millwall, Blackburn, Plymouth and, of course, Rotherham.

I don't want to breed complacency, and we should be going into every match still with the intention of winning it: let's aim for 36 points from our last 12! However, even awful form, half a point a game on average, will see us stay up from here.
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Again, I mostly agree but my point of using the average is to illustrate that if we carry on our form the chances are that all of those teams do enough to overtake us. Most teams next 6 won't be the same as their last 6. QPR were 9 better than us, they might be +2 and it could be Plymouth that are +9. If we only pick up 8 points in our last 12 games (carrying on our last 6 form) then we'll be on 52 which might not be enough to stay up. It probably will but there is a possibility we are worse than we have been and it's probably one win worse and we're below 50 points and potentially relegated.

Over the season all teams other than Rotherham are on a points per game that will get them over 50 points. We will probably be high 50s and be safe but it might depend and if we get wins against Ipswich/Leeds but lose to the teams at the bottom (giving away points to rivals) we could still be in trouble.

Don't think we can confidently say we won't be relegated. Bet365 have us at 20/1 for the top 6 and 150/1 to be relegated. I know which one I think has more chance of happening!
 
S7DiscoDown said:
Two massive games in QPR and Blackburn. They are arguably in the 'must not lose' bracket. I can't say 'must win' as we don't look like beating anyone.
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That's another problem with Carrick's Boro, we don't get many draws. Great when we're on form but when we're not we never seem to find a way to scrape a point.
 
I mean we still do have to play alot of them sides so if we lose to them it is squeaky bum time. We just gotta get two wi's out the next 3 and then we can relax don't care anymore
 
I am a little worried. The trouble is we keep losing to teams at the bottom.
We are very streaky. I think there is a decent chance we will hit form at some point and string four, five, six wins together.
However there is also a decent chance that we are unable to do this again and don't win another match all season, whilst continuing to give points to every other team at the bottom.

I am concerned that there is an easy way to play us. Very high line. Very high pressure. Wait for us to play our way into trouble. Score early goals. Drop the high line and press and sit deep. **** teams are doing this against us and are being effective.

The key for me is fry, hackney, coburn. Our best defender. Our best midfielder. Our best striker, or at the very least the one most beneficial to the way we play. If and when we get them back will determine how we do.
Jones too. Forss is decent but Jones form has been better this year.
Also a word for Howson. He has been dipping a little this season I think. But his nous is invaluable.

To be a passing team that plays from the back you need pace up front. It also helps to have a player that can hold the ball upfront. Last year akpom held it, archer provided pace. This year coburn holds it, Jones provides the pace.

Without either of these two the opposition defence can push right up and crowd the midfield making it impossible for us to play out from the back. I don't care how good hackney is, if he has no space to operate in he will lose the ball.

Fry is out best defender. We need our best defender on the field it's that simple. I would play fry and McNair for the rest of the season. They know each others game.

I would move RDB to right back. He is not great there but we are being murdered by ayling bombing up the pitch. We could do with someone to sit and make sure we have three at the back. The number 10 needs to combine with Jones/forss like crooks did. Leave the left hand side to Engel and Mcgree.

At present we do better against the better sides as we are lacking in confidence and playing poor tactics, forced on us by injuries. We are better not being in possession.

The last game I went to was Millwall. Millwall had sixty percent possession. We won 3 - 1.

We need to vary the play much more. Most good teams do this. The idea that they all play tippy tappy football is nonsense. Watch Liverpool.

I am not a "footballing expert" as people keep dubbing people who proffer any opinion on the subject. This is just what I think. I may be right or I may be wrong. Football is a funny old game. Greenwood may go flying into a tackle, ignite the crowd, the team gain a bit of confidence and we beat Norwich three nil and we start playing champagne football again. Who knows.
 
Ayresome_park said:
We think we have problems, Blackburn Rovers are in free fall, one win in 14 games on 39 points.

Sheffield Wednesday have won 4 out of the last 5 and it would be some achievement if they escaped the drop currently sat on 35 points

Huddersfield Town seem to be in trouble, they are drawing alot of games and currently sat on 38 points, 4th bottom.

This season I reckon 50 plus points will be needed to stay up which is quite rare in the championship.

Going down I reckon,

Stoke City
Huddersfield
Rotherham

I reckon 14th place for us lot.
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I don't think we'll go down, but Blackburn have got the same number of points as us - 8 - since the turn of the year
So if they're in freefall....
 
I think most of that is correct other than Fry being the best defender which I disagree on, for me that's Lenihan, or at least Lenihan is the best overall package.

If we had a back 3 of Lenihan, Fry and VDB we would do alright I think, and be hard to beat.

We really need Jones back, as he can pull something from nothing, which none of our other players can do with similar regularity. Whether Jones comes back with the same form is going to be key for us.
 
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