Cryptocurrency Crash

Nano said:
People that day trade will likely be down because it's volatile but anyone that held it will be up. Long term investors aren't day traders. 99% of people that invested in bitcoin and still own it today are in profit.

Also, you seem to be completely missing the fact that small time investors like us don't have any influence on the price. The reason that it is rising or falling at any given time is because institutional investors are now invested. Back in 2017 (and obviously much earlier) things were very different. You say it hasn't gone mainstream yet but what does $30bn of investment from the US in the last few weeks alone tell you? You speak with a lot of confidence on something you clearly have very little knowledge of and it is always negative. As more institutions come no board and things like pension companies are invested then it will reduce volatility (as they are long term holders of assets) but it will also increase the price because pensions are added to every month with every paycheck.

Saying I won't do something because I haven't last time is a bit silly
No it isn't. If you think Bitcoin is going to go up over time then waiting for it to drop in price is silly. There have been 7 years of ups and downs since you last bought and an investment at any time in that would have been up and almost certainly beaten all of your other investments. It only comes on your radar when it hits the news and then you only talk about missing the boat.

Last time you invested you sold at $15k and they you missed the rise to $65k and it never went back down to a price you were happy with so saying you will invest when it goes down again isn't going to happen because if it goes down you'll say "that's the end of it, we've missed the boat now" but if the same sort of action we have seen after every other halving happens it migh hit $250k and the new low could be $75k and you still won't invest.

I don't talk about crypto often. I don't invest often either. I haven't added (or sold) anything since 2017. I'm not a crypto evangelist and I don't hold enough to ever make me rich. I watch because I'm interested and I comment on it mainly to counter the mis-truths other people have about something they don't understand and those mis-truths only seem to surface when it is in the news hitting highs or lows.
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Day trading is tough in any market, even for pro's, and probably almost impossible with Bitcoin or Crypto, but some will manage it. Even harder for amateurs of course. I'm not sure what sort of deposit fees, margins, spreads the exchanges use either but they're probably not great I expect?

Sure 99% who still hold today are in profit, could say that about a lot of investments, but what about anyone who sold at a loss because they couldn't handle the volatility? People with higher percentages in or higher values will be more scared by the higher the volatility, so end up getting out of it, usually at the wring time. What about people who bought at the two previous highs of 65 and 69 in 2021, it's not a great ROI up to now for where the price has been (i.e down 80%).

The trading volumes at the minute are not very high either, as far as I can tell? The peak looked to be 2017, by a mile, but you will know a lot more about that than me, and where best to look etc. I would like to know where is best to look at this etc?

I speak a lot about it (when it crops up) as it's interesting, and extremely volatile, and I consider it extreme risk when I myself are probably investing with more risk than most guidelines or proven investors would suggest.

Missed the rise to 65k :LOL: I sold before it went in the hole for 4 years, and it would have took that long before I would have been back in profit. Even if I had been in it would have been a small amount, like how you said you had a small amount in, a few months savings or whatever. It wouldn't have made a big difference anyway, as it's not like I would have been in with my life savings, as nobody should be doing that.

Beaten my other investments, sure, it's beating my main low risk indexes, now, not so much before the last 2-3 months though, which is all I've really focused on long term. But there a many massive tech companies which have done much better, with much less risk in my eyes. The whole NDX is up about the same amount, and I would consider that much safer.

The new low could be 15k too, it might be 5k, who knows? There's been a halving since 2016, and the price was back down to the 2017 peak only a year ago.

Like I say, I'm not against it, but people have to accept that the risk and volatility is absolutely mental. There might be a big reward with that, but there might be a big loss too, or a time where someone has to cash out at a very poor time.

I would be more tempted to go in on it, in more recent times, as I've much more flexibility and a much bigger rainy day fund tucked away in my ISA's etc. But I couldn't see me doing it with more than 5% in the next 5 years, and I wouldn't want to do it after such a sharp rise as I would be concerned about having missed the boat so to speak. Whether that time comes again we'll see, but I'm probably more open to it now than I had been from like 2017 to 2022. I wouldn't be expecting a rise to 250k or whatever though, not within 10 years, but maybe something more like a 4 year trend line, to cover the halving's or whatever.
 
For anyone wondering if they think it is too late to get into bitcoin: Michael Saylor today bought $821.7mn worth. Presume he's only expecting the price to go on one direction in the long term.

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