Form going into Playoffs

[Laughing]

and form can change at any given moment

Form is a ridiculous human concept to try and explain football results. In discrete events, what happened in the previous event cannot effect the current event.

The reason we are favourites, despite loosing some games is to do with the wisdom of the crowd. Most people believe we have the best chance of promotion from the 4 play-off teams left. They believe this, probably, because we played luton off the park with our second string and did the same again to coventry with a slightly better team, but still missing our club captain and at 90%.

This is why we are favourites.

Once again form is a myth. We have played, roughly to the same level over the season, barring when wilder was in charge.

 

[atypical_boro]

Form is a ridiculous human concept to try and explain football results. In discrete events, what happened in the previous event cannot effect the current event.

The reason we are favourites, despite loosing some games is to do with the wisdom of the crowd. Most people believe we have the best chance of promotion from the 4 play-off teams left. They believe this, probably, because we played luton off the park with our second string and did the same again to coventry with a slightly better team, but still missing our club captain and at 90%.

This is why we are favourites.

Once again form is a myth. We have played, roughly to the same level over the season, barring when wilder was in charge.

Well, in the absence of the old poster 'Boksic', and having read some of the same books as him, I'm pretty sure the most frequently accurate indicator of the outcome of a football match is a club's wage bill, so I'd say that is one of the reasons we're favourites as well as us playing well at the Kenny etc.

 

[Laughing]

Well, in the absence of the old poster 'Boksic', and having read some of the same books as him, I'm pretty sure the most frequently accurate indicator of the outcome of a football match is a club's wage bill, so I'd say that is one of the reasons we are favourites as well as us playing well at the Kenny etc.

Whatever happened to him, I wonder.

 

[atypical_boro]

Whatever happened to him, I wonder.

His role as a board poster was, at best, understated.

 

[Laughing]

His role as a board poster was, at best, understated.

I liked his posts too. He had a way of thinking that was quite unusual.

 

[Colgates_shaving_foam]

Whatever happened to him, I wonder.

I remember someone disappearing when it became clear that there opinion on Adama Traore (that he would never amount to anything) was shown to be rather incorrect.

Was that boksic are someone else?

 

[atypical_boro]

I liked his posts too. He had a way of thinking that was quite unusual.

I didn't actually find it that unusual, having read some of the books. However, it was definitely out of kilter with the more common 'football community' way of thinking. But yeah, thats what made his posts interesting. Always used to make me laugh how someone would say 'well yeah but how are Liverpool 6th when they have the 5th highest wage bill' or whatever.

I have a mate who always gets a bit arsey with me when I question the validity of 'form' as a prediction tool.

 

[atypical_boro]

I remember someone disappearing when it became clear that there opinion on Adama Traore (that he would never amount to anything) was shown to be rather incorrect.

Was that boksic are someone else?

Don't think that was Boksic. I notice Pogatetzatemyhamster hasn't been on much with his 'bald fraud' shtick. In truth I was sceptical about Pep when he first came to City, but Pog tried to keep it going for quite a while after.

 

[Marvanelli]

Pog tried to keep it going for quite a while after.

That's because POG was never wrong.

He was right about everything...

 

[atypical_boro]

That's because POG was never wrong.

He was right about everything...

In fairness Pep still hasn't won the CL....... (with City)

 

[Marvanelli]

In fairness Pep still hasn't won the CL....... (with City)

Correct. He's clearly a bald fraud then

 

[atypical_boro]

Correct. He's clearly a bald fraud then

I never quite understood what baldness has to do with it to be fair.

 

[BigAl76]

Form is a ridiculous human concept to try and explain football results. In discrete events, what happened in the previous event cannot effect the current event.

The reason we are favourites, despite loosing some games is to do with the wisdom of the crowd. Most people believe we have the best chance of promotion from the 4 play-off teams left. They believe this, probably, because we played luton off the park with our second string and did the same again to coventry with a slightly better team, but still missing our club captain and at 90%.

This is why we are favourites.

Once again form is a myth. We have played, roughly to the same level over the season, barring when wilder was in charge.

'Form' as a linear predictor function is definitely a valid statistical analysis tool. The thing with football is, there are many coefficients to consider and the weighting assigned to those coefficients are somewhat subjective.

I get where you are coming from, but I dont agree that 'what happened in a previous event cannot effect the current event'. Not when it comes to human behavior and the psychology of a footballer.

In the interests of pedantry:-
In a binary scenario such as predicting lottery numbers, there is no statistical laws which state the likelihood of the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, being drawn (in any order) is any more than the numbers 5,29,19,36,21,41 being drawn. The regression coefficients (the numbers), are completely random for each draw.

In football however you cant apply the same rationale. Form as a predictor of a dependent variable (a win), plays a role to varying degrees depending on your subjective viewpoint. But to dismiss it as irrelevant is remiss.

 

[Laughing]

'Form' as a linear predictor function is definitely a valid statistical analysis tool. The thing with football is, there are many coefficients to consider and the weighting assigned to those coefficients are somewhat subjective.

I get where you are coming from, but I dont agree that 'what happened in a previous event cannot effect the current event'. Not when it comes to human behavior and the psychology of a footballer.

In the interests of pedantry:-
In a binary scenario such as predicting lottery numbers, there is no statistical laws which state the likelihood of the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, being drawn (in any order) is any more than the numbers 5,29,19,36,21,41 being drawn. The regression coefficients (the numbers), are completely random for each draw.

In football however you cant apply the same rationale. Form as a predictor of a dependent variable (a win), plays a role to varying degrees depending on your subjective viewpoint. But to dismiss it as irrelevant is remiss.

I don't, necessarily, disagree with your comments. For example, a loss of confidence from a serries of games can effect how a team plays in the next game. Similarly, a good run of results, should, increase confidence. It may effect how a player, r a team perform. They may choose an easy pass rather than go past their man, for example.

The question then becomes whether differing degrees of confidence effect the overall performance in an upcoming game? Well that depends on whether the loss, or gain of confidence is based on something concrete. If confidence had such a big impact, teams wouldn't loose to minnows in a cup game. The team in the higher division's confidence is sky high. Then we get to the old football adage, they just thought they needed to turn up, or overconfidence? No just the minnow played the best they can and the higher placed team played poorly.

If a team is on a long wining run, they are more likely to win their next game, because they are a good team, the long winning run is solely because they are a good team.

There are any number of academic studies done on football wisdom, and most prove to be hokum. Fom is one of them.

Here is one you may find interesting: https://www.sportingintelligence.com/2009/12/16/fact-or-fiction-myths-in-football/

When I said that they are discrete events so cannot effect future events. That's not entirely true. An injury or sending off in one game can and does impact on the next game, of course. But it is nothing to do with form.

 

[iamborome]

Lets hope they all peaked too soon.

 

[BigAl76]

I don't, necessarily, disagree with your comments. For example, a loss of confidence from a serries of games can effect how a team plays in the next game. Similarly, a good run of results, should, increase confidence. It may effect how a player, r a team perform. They may choose an easy pass rather than go past their man, for example.

The question then becomes whether differing degrees of confidence effect the overall performance in an upcoming game? Well that depends on whether the loss, or gain of confidence is based on something concrete. If confidence had such a big impact, teams wouldn't loose to minnows in a cup game. The team in the higher division's confidence is sky high. Then we get to the old football adage, they just thought they needed to turn up, or overconfidence? No just the minnow played the best they can and the higher placed team played poorly.

If a team is on a long wining run, they are more likely to win their next game, because they are a good team, the long winning run is solely because they are a good team.

There are any number of academic studies done on football wisdom, and most prove to be hokum. Fom is one of them.

Here is one you may find interesting: https://www.sportingintelligence.com/2009/12/16/fact-or-fiction-myths-in-football/

When I said that they are discrete events so cannot effect future events. That's not entirely true. An injury or sending off in one game can and does impact on the next game, of course. But it is nothing to do with form.

Thanks for that link. Good read that and very interesting. I may delve further into this and do some more reading.
The examples proposed and the statistical data used are all suggestive of a certain consruct when it comes to form. I think there is still some subjectivity involved when reaching their conclusions. (You can prove anything with mathematics and statistics)

But yea, you've made a good point there.

 

[Laughing]

Thanks for that link. Good read that and very interesting. I may delve further into this and do some more reading.
The examples proposed and the statistical data used are all suggestive of a certain consruct when it comes to form. I think there is still some subjectivity involved when reaching their conclusions. (You can prove anything with mathematics and statistics)

But yea, you've made a good point there.

I don't necessarily agree with everything the article says, but it does give mathematical basis for their conclusions. The one thing it did agree with, which I thought was nonsense was the 2nd leg home advantage. I was very surprised by that.

I did read a similar article about home advantage more generally. The study was performed without a crowd, due to covid. The idea was to ask how much the supporters effect the bias of referee's and the players efforts.

It found home advantage still existed even without crowds, though it was dimished a bit. However, I suspect that was the ref reverting to their usual behaviour of favouring the home team, even without a crowd.

You can read that here:

Without crowds, football teams still have a home advantage – new study

Pressure from the crowd causes referees to make different decisions.

theconversation.com

 

[BigAl76]

I don't necessarily agree with everything the article says, but it does give mathematical basis for their conclusions. The one thing it did agree with, which I thought was nonsense was the 2nd leg home advantage. I was very surprised by that.

I did read a similar article about home advantage more generally. The study was performed without a crowd, due to covid. The idea was to ask how much the supporters effect the bias of referee's and the players efforts.

It found home advantage still existed even without crowds, though it was dimished a bit. However, I suspect that was the ref reverting to their usual behaviour of favouring the home team, even without a crowd.

You can read that here:

Without crowds, football teams still have a home advantage – new study

Pressure from the crowd causes referees to make different decisions.

theconversation.com

At the risk of taking a trip down tangent boulevard here on a thread about 'form', you just need to look at places like Old Trafford - certainly in the Fergie era for how refs can be home biased.
Having the home leg as the second game of a two leg game showed a swing of only 3.7% for likelihood of winning the round didnt it. It's hardly conclusive - but I'll take it.. We have a 3.7% better chance of making the final.

Just to make this post relevant to the thread, I'm going to quote a popular football idiom...when it comes to cup ties "all form goes out of the window".
UTB

 

[MBBoro]

Been in virtual relegation form for the last quarter of the season. Reality is we hit the skids at the wrong time of the season and in my eyes nowhere near favourites going into playoffs.