How many points will be needed for the playoffs?

There are three teams between us and 6th place: Coventry, Norwich, Hull. You can pretty much guarantee that at least one of them will reach 76 points.

To get 77 points, we have to win 8 of our final 9 games and that isn't going to happen. We have to play Hull which does give us more of a chance of overhauling them.
 
I would always just expect the 75 would get you in as it does most season.
75 would have gotten you in the play-offs 10 times out of the last 12 seasons and it would have been down to goal difference in one season.

WBA will surpass 75 no doubt and I would expect at least one of Norwich, Hull or Coventry to get to 75 as they only need 2PPG to get there (6 wins out of 9). It could well be more like 78 this season. I definitely don't think 72 will be enough.

We are too far back and have no chance of putting together the sort of form we would need to pull it off especially with the matches we have remaining. Probably need 8 wins in 9. I think we will be well adrift by the end of the season and finish 9th-12th.
 
Current season average PPG would suggest 72/73 would be enough. Aim for 75 and you should be fine.

*Edit - I don't think we will get this. We will get 64-67 Pts I think and finsih mid table.
 
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MickaelDebevePhenomenal said:
Current season average PPG would suggest 72/73 would be enough. Aim for 75 and you should be fine.
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The chances are one of Coventry, Norwich and Hull will play above their season form though. Hull have achieved 2.0 PPG since the end of the January window. If they maintained that they would get to 76.
 
People do get carried away quickly. Last week we were talking about relegation and this week it is the playoffs. Reality is that we are a midtable team and that's exactly where I expect we will finish.
 
It's pretty remarkable how we've lost 16 league games this season and are still within (a very small) chance of a PO spot.

Huddersfield are in the bottom 3 and they haven't even lost 16 league games this season!
 
Aside from the financial gain, getting in the playoff as the 6th placed team would be pretty pointless. The team finishing 3rd whether it be Leeds/Ipswich or Southampton would be streets ahead of us over 2 legs.
 
Nano said:
People do get carried away quickly. Last week we were talking about relegation and this week it is the playoffs. Reality is that we are a midtable team and that's exactly where I expect we will finish.
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Completely agree Nano. We are mid table. We were never in danger of relegation and we're not going to get into the play offs. Injuries and a lack of options from the transfers saw to that.
However this is what football's all about. A sniff of relegation worries and we get our calculators out for when we are safe. A sniff of the play offs and they're out again. It would be a boring affair if not. And it's exactly why the play offs were introduced.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think we drew our penultimate match Vs Wolves. Ironically, that was the night Sunderland slipped up and we overtook them by drawing.

Certainly we were in the automatic place before the final match: we knew if we won, we were up.

The 92 finish was something else; I think we won Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, coming from behind in at least 2 of those matches. True determination.
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Same in 92. We knew if we won on the last day we were up.
It wasn't looking good, down to 10 men and 1-0 down.
Then up pops Gittens to poke it home from 2 yards. 1-1.
Then Jamie Pollock bursts through and after winning a quick wrestling bout with a Wolves defender, he crosses for Wilkinson to head home the most awkward, twisty, ugly diving header ever seen.
It was certainly no Downing/Maccarone masterclass but who cares?
2-1 and we're up!
 
B_G said:
The chances are one of Coventry, Norwich and Hull will play above their season form though. Hull have achieved 2.0 PPG since the end of the January window. If they maintained that they would get to 76.
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You've got your sums wrong BG. Since the end of January Hull have P9 W4 D4 L1 = 16 points = 1.78 PPG. Maintain that to the end of the season and they'll have 74 points.

I'm not saying they can't or won't achieve that, but they still have to play Cardiff, Leeds, Boro, Ipswich and Coventry.
 
We could very easily be two points off the play offs by Saturday teatime. It's still a big ask, but not really sure why people are saying that it's impossible.
I sometimes get the impression some people would prefer that their predictions of doom are correct, rather than Boro being successful.
 
WilliamMunny said:
You've got your sums wrong BG. Since the end of January Hull have P9 W4 D4 L1 = 16 points = 1.78 PPG. Maintain that to the end of the season and they'll have 74 points.

I'm not saying they can't or won't achieve that, but they still have to play Cardiff, Leeds, Boro, Ipswich and Coventry.
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Ah **** yeah. I missed a game out.

Hadn't realised they drawn their last 4 matches! I still think they'll be the team to get in.
 
The Card Cheat said:
We could very easily be two points off the play offs by Saturday teatime. It's still a big ask, but not really sure why people are saying that it's impossible.
I sometimes get the impression some people would prefer that their predictions of doom are correct, rather than Boro being successful.
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Not impossible, the maths as you say clearly show it can be done.

From my perspective its merely that our run in has some rather difficult games so can't see us going on the run required. Also, we are chasing down 6th spot from 9th place (10th IF Preston win their game in hand) so we require more than one team to be significantly worse than us.
 
MickaelDebevePhenomenal said:
Not impossible, the maths as you say clearly show it can be done.

From my perspective its merely that our run in has some rather difficult games so can't see us going on the run required. Also, we are chasing down 6th spot from 9th place (10th IF Preston win their game in hand) so we require more than one team to be significantly worse than us.
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I agree it's unlikely, I've no problem with that. It's the "absolutely no chance" from people who always seem to be negative that gets my goat!
One thing in our favour is we seem to do better against the top teams, 6 wins against the top 6 already. Not sure any teams outside the top 4 can match that.
 
I dont see it being us that gets the final play off spot. Apart from anything else it requires us to win 3 more matches than Norwich, Cov and Hull, which is just implausible given there are only 9 matches left, we would have to win almost every game and we have shown no sign of the consistency needed to do that.

What I would say though is we should really be rooting for Leicester, Leeds and Southampton to go up - that would be 3 less teams with parachute money next season - thats got to be a big advantage to us and the rest of the league.
 
Ironops said:
I dont see it being us that gets the final play off spot. Apart from anything else it requires us to win 3 more matches than Norwich, Cov and Hull, which is just implausible given there are only 9 matches left, we would have to win almost every game and we have shown no sign of the consistency needed to do that.

What I would say though is we should really be rooting for Leicester, Leeds and Southampton to go up - that would be 3 less teams with parachute money next season - thats got to be a big advantage to us and the rest of the league.
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Surely it's two matches more? Which makes a big difference.
 
I think we have to assume that one of Hull, Coventry and Norwich will get 2 points/game between now and the end of the season. We think of that as automatic form, and it is over 46 games, but plenty of teams can do it over 9, and as we come to crunch time, contenders tend to pick up form, and also rans have nothing to play for,

Doesn't really matter which one of them does that; we have to overtake them all, but lets assume its Cov as they're currently lowest. 18 points would give them 75 points. However, if they pick up that many points, we won't catch them on GD, so we'd need 76.

The most we can get is 80. 7 wins and 2 draws is a massive ask. Not impossible, and it is possible, but unlikely, that none of those 3 teams will go 2/game until the end of the season.

I'm just going to enjoy trying, it's better than having nothing to play for, but I don't really expect us to do it.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think we have to assume that one of Hull, Coventry and Norwich will get 2 points/game between now and the end of the season. We think of that as automatic form, and it is over 46 games, but plenty of teams can do it over 9, and as we come to crunch time, contenders tend to pick up form, and also rans have nothing to play for,

Doesn't really matter which one of them does that; we have to overtake them all, but lets assume its Cov as they're currently lowest. 18 points would give them 75 points. However, if they pick up that many points, we won't catch them on GD, so we'd need 76.

The most we can get is 80. 7 wins and 2 draws is a massive ask. Not impossible, and it is possible, but unlikely, that none of those 3 teams will go 2/game until the end of the season.

I'm just going to enjoy trying, it's better than having nothing to play for, but I don't really expect us to do it.
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Agreed…we will end up 7th.
 
Alwaysaborolad said:
I would rather have Norwich final nine fixtures, on paper only two tricky games.

Norwich games to play.. Stoke, Plymouth, Leicester, Ipswich, Sheff Wed, Preston, Bristol City, Swansea, Birmingham

We've no chance, 5pts behind Norwich, effectively 6 pts with the goal difference. so we need to find 7pts more.

That's not including Hull & Coventry who are also above us.
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We lost to Stoke, Plymouth, Preston and Bristol C didn't we? (And Ipswich or course). Agree we have a tough run in. The struggle is going to be getting 2 wins more than all of the three teams ahead of us, assuming West Brom don't capitulate and leave another spot available
 
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