Meanwhile, in Sweden...

Alvez_48

Well-known member
Are you genuinely suggesting that the dire situation in California is because of the restrictions? Surely its despite them and if people had mixed freely the situation would be much much worse.

For me people saying "lockdowns/restrictions" don't work because people are still dying etc is like saying people still die in fires lets sack all the firemen and bin all the smoke alarms.

No I'm saying as I said you can fit whichever narrative you want, it's fine for people on this thread to pile onto Sweden like they are terrible yet when I point out it's the same in California where they have harsh restrictions I'm a heretic and being horrible somehow.

My argument would be there's no evidence to show lockdowns work and they have a tremendous cost, nothing more.
 

Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants

Well-known member
Strict lockdowns work, half arsed lockdowns don’t.

Swedish people are paying for the management of the virus. Also note the likes of Ivor cummins etc claimed Sweden had herd immunity back in June. Charlatans peddling pseudoscience.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member

So basically because people are poor and don't obey lockdown rules according the BBC guardian and CNN.

Peru has one of the strictest lockdown rules in the world and has been terribly afflicted by the virus, must be the people's fault.

Jesus bear you're a fanatic.

No wonder when you look at what you count as 'sources'.
 

The Card Cheat

Well-known member
Peru is a third world country and unfortunately suffers from many of the problems that developing nations suffer from. Things we take for granted like education, ease of communication, sanitation, a health system, not living in very overcrowded homes, are nowhere near as common place as they are in the western world.
So I don’t think it works at all to use as evidence that lockdowns don’t work, because there are so many other factors that will affect things.
Australia or New Zealand would be a nearer economic and social comparison, though I’m aware there are other unequal factors there too.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
Peru is a third world country and unfortunately suffers from many of the problems that developing nations suffer from. Things we take for granted like education, ease of communication, sanitation, a health system, not living in very overcrowded homes, are nowhere near as common place as they are in the western world.
So I don’t think it works at all to use as evidence that lockdowns don’t work, because there are so many other factors that will affect things.
Australia or New Zealand would be a nearer economic and social comparison, though I’m aware there are other unequal factors there too.

Fair enough here's a list of papers that look at the efficacy:-


Digest them at your leisure
 

1finny

Well-known member
Peru is a third world country and unfortunately suffers from many of the problems that developing nations suffer from. Things we take for granted like education, ease of communication, sanitation, a health system, not living in very overcrowded homes, are nowhere near as common place as they are in the western world.
So I don’t think it works at all to use as evidence that lockdowns don’t work, because there are so many other factors that will affect things.
Australia or New Zealand would be a nearer economic and social comparison, though I’m aware there are other unequal factors there too.

The folly is people dying in a ditch to defend a position on cause and effect -
Peru strict lockdown didn’t work - its about the poor
Sweden Relative freedom - When it was working it was about compliance and population density. Now it’’s not presumably the people have become non compliant or all moved to big cities
UK - Lockdown works because if we hadn’t done it we’d be in a worse position.

I get it is hard but this is just people, including scientists on whatever side of the fence, putting 2+2 together and making whatever they want.

Remember, at the start our top man was stood on the podium smiling as the PM bragged about shaking hands with Covid patients. He chipped in, to be fair, with a little snippet - don’t forget to wash your hands.
The word ‘incompetent’ springs to mind yet people have been happy to follow his advice since.
 

newusername

Well-known member
My argument would be there's no evidence to show lockdowns work and they have a tremendous cost, nothing more.
Speaking to a colleague, half HK half Australian today, about what he was doing for Christmas.
He couldn't get into Australia for Christmas as their quarantine rules were too strict, so he was going to HK for 3 weeks, to do so he needs 2 negative tests at most 72 hours before his flight & on arrival for 2 weeks he'll be isolated in a special hotel (at his own expense) & will get 1 week with family before flying back to the UK. On return to the UK he can come straight back to work.

Compared to HK he can't believe how the UK have dealt with this pandemic.
HKs lockdowns have been strict, no one outside, massive test programme & tracing of the contacts of those that test positives.
Even now, when in total they are at 1.7 deaths per 100k of population, it is mandatory masks when out of the house, no groups of 3 or more etc.

We are at c.100 deaths per 100k & we've closed pubs & told people that they should/shouldn't have a large family gathering at Christmas.

If we'd gone for a hard lockdown from the outset & had 2 deaths total per 100k, people would be saying it wasn't worth it & the whole Covid thing was overblown.
 

Tomato Soup

Active member
I live in Adelaide and yes the majority of Covid clusters in Australia have been quickly and decisively acted upon, but we have been fortunate that the numbers have never been 'high' relative to other parts of the world.

We've been dealing with cases in the 10's and 20's and very occasionally low 100's.

Australia introduced an effective contact tracing system very early and added a functioning app soon after, but again, such relatively low numbers helps.

The contact tracing very quickly identified that virtually every outbreak originated from a person entering Australia from overseas, there has been very little community transmission.

The Government introduced very strict weekly limits on people entering the country. I think it is currently 5000 per week and the vast majority of this number are returning Aussie citizens. Each has to isolate for two weeks (now at their own expense) in a designated quarantine hotel in the city of entry.

There has been issues with the management of this quarantine, most notably in Melbourne where the hotel security mixed with people in isolation and caused a relatively high increase in numbers through September. The Victorian government put much of Melbourne in to a strict lockdown.

The internal borders between states have been closed with the exception of essential workers for most of the year, but in the last couple of weeks the borders have been reopened and the Police manning those borders have returned to normal duties The recent outbreak in Sydney's northern beaches resulted in most states reinstating border controls for people in NSW or at least those living in the effected suburbs.

Mask wearing is or has been mandatory in some place's at times but not everywhere. Entry in to many shops, bars, restaurants and workplaces is via scanning a QR code or signing in on paper, but the same as anywhere else in the world many people choose to comply with all the requirements and advice, some choose not to and some fail to understand any of it.

As a result of the country's 'performance' most people's lives are pretty much back to normal, social team sports recommenced in June, we managed to complete a delayed 18 game Sunday League season (June to October) had our end of season do at the races, followed by a 8 game spring league, with the summer league (preseason tournament) planned as schedule to start mid Jan. We are at 50%(+) capacity at stadiums. We can mix in decent groups, go to the pub (sitting down indoors), have house parties, etc.

Absolutely, there has been some good governance throughout the year, but l believe luck and circumstance has played a huge part in Australia's Covid 'success' so far.
 

Statto1

Well-known member
Not checked on this thread for a while, with most of the focus rightly being on the UK, and how $hit we're doing and then with the new strain giving us a harder time, but I hadn't realised how much Sweden was already in seriously deep water too. So much for "herd immunity" in summer, have they given Tegnell the boot yet?

Deaths per day:
Only accurate up to the red arrow, the 17th December, as they add deaths retrospectively. The part after the arrow is not complete, pay little attention to it (deaths will not have not dropped off, unless the IFR or CFR have dropped, which they haven't).
1610037627085.png

Cases per day, I think this is retrospective too, as they don't seem to have had a post Christmas spike yet, unless their new measures have taken effect.
1610037743016.png
Hopefully the Swedes can avoid the new strain and they can climb down from their peak (not yet shown), at least they seem to be taking much stronger measures now, and the PM and king have been kicking off about the methods they initially took (or didn't take), so they've now changed tact.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
So the stats are in for the year and there is an increase however when you look at the data a bit deeper 2019 was the lowest year of deaths in 10 years for Sweden.

If we average over 2019-2020 we get to 91,894 deaths over the two years.

If we do the same for 2017-2018 we get to 92,078 deaths over the two years.

I'm open to the argument that the numbers were high for 2017 and 2018 but then 2015 and 2016 show pretty much the same average 90,945.

Either way at least it's good to see that the Swedes are infact not going through Armageddon. Something I'm sure we can all celebrate.
 

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GazC_MFC

Well-known member
I actually looked at these figures about 10am. Basically you can say they’ve had around 3k excess deaths because of covid.

for the U.K. to performed as comparable on population it would have to have been 21k. Excess
 

Statto1

Well-known member
So the stats are in for the year and there is an increase however when you look at the data a bit deeper 2019 was the lowest year of deaths in 10 years for Sweden.

If we average over 2019-2020 we get to 91,894 deaths over the two years.

If we do the same for 2017-2018 we get to 92,078 deaths over the two years.

I'm open to the argument that the numbers were high for 2017 and 2018 but then 2015 and 2016 show pretty much the same average 90,945.

Either way at least it's good to see that the Swedes are infact not going through Armageddon. Something I'm sure we can all celebrate.

You've posted that list of number before (without a link) and the date it quotes (without a link) and it doesn't reflect the total deaths to that date as Sweden is a month behind on everything, I've also pointed this out before (with a link). It does take some digging to realise this mind.

From what I recall before, the last two weeks quoted, contained about 1/10th of the deaths from the last two weeks (when the full results were reported).
 
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