Sums it up sky bias

Mendieta14 said:
Riverside is a very jittery home crowd and that expects to win.. Coventry only need 1 away goal and suddenly we're under incredible pressure.
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true but one home goal and that Coventry side are also under incredible pressure. It's on a knife edge either way
 
WilliamMunny said:
That's only true once that particular market is open. If any bookmaker priced Man City and Real Madrid at 10/11 each to qualify on Wednesday night, there would be a deluge of big bets on Man City, until the price reached a more realistic level, such as the 2/7 currently available. That price may change over the next 32 hours, but it won't be substantially different come kick off time. Certainly there's no chance of Real Madrid going off as favourites.

The same applies to the Boro game. If the bookies have mis-priced it then money will go down on the over-priced team. But they have to make a market before they accept any bets and all of the bookies decided to install us as fairly strong favourites to progress after Sunday.
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of course the initial price is through analysis, but in a low scoring game like footy, between two teams that finished a place apart over 46 games, and have just played out 2 draws in a week, there is no strong favourite.
 
BoroMart said:
that's my point.


real world likelihood of one side winning has too many variables and unknowns for that level of accuracy. Especially in a low scoring game like football where one poor ref decision can change it.
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Your last comment is just plain wrong Mart. On betfair, outcomes priced at 1.48 come to pass 67% of the time. It's a fact and is easily verifiable.
 
Laughing said:
Your last comment is just plain wrong Mart. On betfair, outcomes priced at 1.48 come to pass 67% of the time. It's a fact and is easily verifiable.
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feel free to verify it then. What you are saying is that a third of the time they are wrong, which doesn't make this overwhelmingly in our favour, I wish it was.

We've played twice in a a week and had two draws, we've scored one goal in 4 1/2 hours against them this season, it's going to be a tight game swing by a couple of key moments where someone puts the ball in the net or misses an opportunity they shouldn't.
 
We dont need to worry about all that noise and nonsense.
I used to look forward to The Buff after the match and Final Score on Grandstand.(y)
 
BoroMart said:
feel free to verify it then. What you are saying is that a third of the time they are wrong, which doesn't make this overwhelmingly in our favour, I wish it was.

We've played twice in a a week and had two draws, we've scored one goal in 4 1/2 hours against them this season, it's going to be a tight game swing by a couple of key moments where someone puts the ball in the net or misses an opportunity they shouldn't.
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No they get it right the exact amount of time they should 67% of the time. Our implied chance of going to wembley is 67%. 1.48 does not mean it will happen.

The discussion started when you said we are not strong favourites to qualify from the tie. You then went on to say that the price is a reflection of random folks beliefs, suggesting it was meaningless. It simply isn't meaningless.

It may well end 0-0 after xtra time and coventry go through on penalties. That doesnm't mean the price was wrong.

You are generally a thoughtful poster, you are drifting into an area you don't know a lot about and one in which I know a tremendous amount. I'll leave it at that.
 
r00fie1 said:
We dont need to worry about all that noise and nonsense.
I used to look forward to The Buff after the match and Final Score on Grandstand.(y)
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The final score used to be proceeded by wrestling. I loved that as a little kid Kendo Nagasaki, what a god!
 
Another Boro fan with a huge juicy chip on their shoulder that get upset when they don't say nice things about their team. I honestly don't get why people would care 🤦‍♂️
 
1finny said:
They have it spot on - no bias
All they had to add was and ‘they are unbeaten v Boro in 3 games’

All fair enough for me
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One of which Boro arguably dominated and the other two which have zero relevance on our possible performance tomorrow, due to being under Wilder and in tossing it off mode respectively.

FWIW to the other argument I'd agree that we are favourites (home advantage counts for something, otherwise the league wouldn't dish it out to the sides that finishes 3rd/4th) But not strong favourites.
 
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Laughing said:
No they get it right the exact amount of time they should 67% of the time. Our implied chance of going to wembley is 67%. 1.48 does not mean it will happen.
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It averages out over a number of matches, correct, but that isn't entirely indicative of individual matches which they do get it wrong and regularly, because bookies and punters often over inflates favourites. It's not an exact science on a match by match basis, but over 100s of games yes they always get enough right.

The world of sport would be pretty boring if you could just look at the bookies odds and know who will win and that the underdog will always lose.
 
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