Laughing
Well-known member
I read all that quite carefully, and I agree to an extent. Still common sense often trumps science, and that's from a scientist.Being outdoors does, you're totally right on that, and the common sense of that is right, it will have an effect. The problem is it will only have an effect in that time period (maybe spending 2 hours per day more outside, so maybe 3 hours outside in summer average, compared to 1 hour winter average?), but that gain gets taken away by the 8x transmissibility increase (over wild variant) when you're inside for the other 21 hours.
Fag packet maths says you may need to spend 8 x more outside, to make up for the 8 x transmissibility, on the rough assumption that there's zero chance of catching it outside etc.
For Flu and the wild strain with R0's of 0.5-3, seasonality will have a much more noticeable effect, but BA2 won't, and neither did BA1, even Delta didn't, it's all about timing, when it arrives, that's when the wave hits. Look how it kicked off in South Africa, which was in the middle of summer, and the only reason it hit here in winter is because it arrived in winter, then it just burns out quick when it reaches an infection level high enough to counter the R0 (which was in winter). The reason for the second wave in March was timing again, BA2 having a higher R0, so again needing a higher infection rate to curb it (despite weather being slightly better).
The driver of the next wave will probably be waning immunity, but as that is probably well staggered, then this may help us avoid further large waves.
I don't think Covid will go away (as in become extinct), it was here before anyone had even heard of it (I hadn't heard of it in 2018 anyway), and the R0's are that high now that it will just circle around the world, finding gaps, infecting people who somehow avoided it, and reinfecting others, just like common colds/ flu does, it will probably go on forever. The impact of it will likely just get less and less and less, as vaccines and previous infection, and reinfection, and reinfection will just build up a massive resistance to the threat, it will just merge with colds and flu etc, and to me it already has. It's already less deadly than typical flu (only due to vaccines and prev infection etc), which is to me where we pretty much have to draw a line under it and largely forget about it (for those without immunity issues). If I had immunity issues I'd probably be very careful, to reduce risk, but may eventually give up on that just to feel more "normal", hard to say though, as I'm not in that boat and feel sorry for those who are.
Loads will die next winter, they always do it's been called EWM (excess winter mortality) for years, but I just don't see it being worse than an average flu year. Of course, that's still pretty crap, but surely this will have been a good lesson in how dangerous it can be passing on colds, flu, Covid to the elderly and those at risk. Maybe some will give up meeting the parents for crimbo dinner if the have some symptoms, which could end up saving quite a few lives which we otherwise would not have saved.
I appreciate the comments, it's been an interesting debate, and I've learned a lot over the last couple of years, and tried to pass some of that on, as best I can anyway
No need to apologise, I saw nothing wrong with that!
I know what you mean
On the excess deaths, we did this previously, but I think covid will make flu and pneumonia look like a sniffle every winter until we vastly improve, either the treatment or the vaccine.
You are right that it may just become the new normal though. Rather unfortunately.
