England tests showing LFD and LFD plus PCR. They were increasing till a few days ago but are now falling off a little. It's the symptomatic PCR tests that are the vast majority of cases and they're falling off most quickly. Looks like the Euros! A virologist on R4 yesterday said it would be next week before the recent relaxation of restrictions would show through and late August before the peak.Surely a quick way to tell if there is a link between cases dropping and schools would be to check the number of tests completed? I seen something on Twitter earlier to say the numbers haven’t changed, can anyone verify that
Slowing down
The headline numbers do look a bit too good to be true.Infections may well be slowing down, but testing has slowed down also and the rate of positive tests is still creeping up I believe.
Testing in the last 7 days has reduced by 5% and reported infection rates have reduced by 15%, so it's not quite as clear cut as the 7 day average for infections appears.
They've been going down for the last 5 days.Infections may well be slowing down, but testing has slowed down also and the rate of positive tests is still creeping up I believe.
Testing in the last 7 days has reduced by 5% and reported infection rates have reduced by 15%, so it's not quite as clear cut as the 7 day average for infections appears.
I think the iinfection rate is dropping Randy, just not as fast as we might think based on testing. I do know last Monday there were areas who had zero lft kits for example.
Localised variant under investigation?I think the iinfection rate is dropping Randy, just not as fast as we might think based on testing. I do know last Monday there were areas who had zero lft kits for example.
I would expect schools breaking up to help the reduction but to counter that we have the removal of restrictions and particularly the work from home directive being removed, may cause a spike.
We also have another localized variant under investigation.
Whilst I do believe that the link between infections rates and death has been weakened I don't think we are anywhere near such a large reversal of infection rates. I hope I am wrong, obviously.
Peston is a clown.Only just found this out...apparently still applies if you tested positive a year ago. (According to Peston).
Surely any possible reinfections are recorded somewhere?
View attachment 21852
A variant from the UK Bear B.1.621. It was classed as a variant of interest last week.Localised variant under investigation?
Who was the virologist out of interest?England tests showing LFD and LFD plus PCR. They were increasing till a few days ago but are now falling off a little. It's the symptomatic PCR tests that are the vast majority of cases and they're falling off most quickly. Looks like the Euros! A virologist on R4 yesterday said it would be next week before the recent relaxation of restrictions would show through and late August before the peak.
View attachment 21820
Who was the virologist out of interest?
The euros?
These were some of the scenes from euro final day......
That was 14 days ago now. So we should be seeing a rise in cases now?
Ye I agree, we seen a sharp rise for the weeks following it. Wasn’t 7-10 days on old variants and 14 days was towards the back end of the incubation periodI could be wrong but it seems with the delta variant the virus is first detectable lot quicker, something like 4 days, rather than two weeks.
How the Delta Variant Spreads So Quickly
Viral load is roughly 1,000 times higher in people infected with the Delta variant than those infected with the original coronavirus strain, according to a study in Chinawww.scientificamerican.com
There were anecdotal comments on here of people testing positive, whose most likely contact was a Euro night out at the pub. Most were 3-4 days after.I could be wrong but it seems with the delta variant the virus is first detectable lot quicker, something like 4 days, rather than two weeks.
How the Delta Variant Spreads So Quickly
Viral load is roughly 1,000 times higher in people infected with the Delta variant than those infected with the original coronavirus strain, according to a study in Chinawww.scientificamerican.com
Jeremy Farrar.Who was the virologist out of interest?
The euros?
These were some of the scenes from euro final day......
That was 14 days ago now. So we should be seeing a rise in cases now?
The same account made a prediction:
https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1419361439303839753
Similar predictions have been made by anonymous twitter accounts (who have been spot on for the US) while Ferguson and Hayward predicted an inevitable 100,000 and (after a plateau) continued exponential growth respectively. Lets see who is right over the coming weeks. 'Delta' has shown an ascent of ~52 days in India, looks v similar for the UK......
https://twitter.com/districtai/status/1419359549933461505
Restrictions and 'lockdowns' are often credited with falling cases yet when places ease restrictions and cases continue to fall it is often overlooked/ignored. With (almost) no restrictions in place in the UK and bars, cubs open at full capacity the mathematicians and modelers have nowhere to hide this time. There should be a clear inflection/increase due to 'full re-opening' on July 19th / removal of mask mandate etc. I've been wrong before but lets see how it pans out........