I think we had our exit period at right time of year. These sound bites about the NHS been busy happen every year.
Yeah it will be a mix of vaccination/ boosters and infection plus whatever else, we've thankfully ticked the first two parts well, but unfortunately also ticked the latter part too.I love that chart Andy, it's impossible to ready anything into it though because it isn't clear what it is based on. I would assume, its based on hospitalizations per 100K and Infection rates. Who knows though.
I would imagine that the bar chart correlates incredibly closely with vaccination rates.
The daily numbers are not great (for cases), but that line is clearly bending/ levelling on the specimen dates, if that continues it's about as good a news as we can hope for, compared to a lot of the EU dealing with exponential growth. Extra good news on hospitalisations and deaths still trending down.Today's headline analysis:
• 42,484 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 44,917
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.8% to 42,523 per day, following 1.8% increase yesterday (and 12th daily increase in the past 13 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 8.7% higher than one week ago (from 8.4% higher yesterday) and 24.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 22.0% higher yesterday and 2.3% lower 7 days ago)
• 165 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 45 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.8% to 139.7 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday (and 7th daily decrease in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.5% lower than one week ago (from 5.2% lower yesterday) and 15.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 13.8% lower yesterday and 8.5% lower 7 days ago)
Discounting the bank holiday weekend in August, today's was the lowest number of new deaths reported on a Tuesday since 10th August.
Yeah, they will and should stay ok as 50+, and even more 70+ are coming down, which is the brunt of where the deaths come from.Nice to see deaths still dropping despite 14 days of increasing infections. Hope that continues.
Not a lot to be positive about today, other than we're not at the October peak yet, healthcare is nowhere near as bad, and we're just in linear growth, not exponential.Today's headline analysis:
• 50,091 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 47,240
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.9% to 44,193 per day, following 0.1% increase yesterday (and 15th daily increase in the past 16 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 10.0% higher than one week ago (from 9.5% higher yesterday) and 24.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 25.3% higher yesterday and 5.8% higher 7 days ago)
• 160 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 147 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.3% to 125.3 per day, following 5.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 15.5% lower than one week ago (from 14.8% lower yesterday) and 19.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 23.2% lower yesterday and 13.3% lower 7 days ago)
Damn...Not a lot to be positive about today, other than we're not at the October peak yet, healthcare is nowhere near as bad, and we're just in linear growth, not exponential.
Going to be an interesting next couple of weeks.
Haha, I just edited that last line too, as I realised that could be taken the wrong way.Damn...
You usually come up with a well reasoned positive to help calm the impact of the figures. I guess today was just bad.
Thanks for that breakdown though. I'm not sure how I feel about nu. Obviously it has the potential to be bad but I don't think we can do much about it. Stopping southern African people coming here will just slow it down. It'll arrive on our shores at some pointHaha, I just edited that last line too, as I realised that could be taken the wrong way.
It's difficult to be positive, in the face of the increases, especially for England:
View attachment 28657
Scotland are looking ok though, but they're actually above their October levels, albeit trending down:
View attachment 28658
Hard to tell if they're ahead of us, or behind us
I still think it's going to level off soon on it's own (near the October peak in England), once the schools burn out. Hard to be so sure about that now though, so looking forward to seeing what the modellers have to offer over the coming weeks.
Obviously we may have Nu to come, but I don't see that as much of big deal for us with the high vax uptake/ previous infection. If that kicks off outside SA, then I can see loads of countries going to vax mandates.
It just buys time for vaccines/ boosters, which is good.Thanks for that breakdown though. I'm not sure how I feel about nu. Obviously it has the potential to be bad but I don't think we can do much about it. Stopping southern African people coming here will just slow it down. It'll arrive on our shores at some point
Might even be lack of testing, due to the crap weather, or lack of transmission due to the crap weather, forgot about that. Not sure how bad everywhere else has been but it's been pretty nasty by the coast.Looks good Andy, certainly at first glance. Let's hope there isn't delayed reporting.
Yeah, that's the good thing, as boosters are going up and cases pretty level for the past 5 months Hospitalisations effectively can't go up, unless something gets drastically worse, which I don't think it will.Good point about the weather. People not going for tests or staying at home could have a big impact, tho kids still had to go to school.
It will be interesting to see hospitalizations, particularly if omicron takes off.