Tories back in poll lead, didn't take long ...

Cosmonaut

Well-known member
... most oppositions in mid-term are usually way ahead. Just seen a few polls tweeted by a Labour Member of the House of Lords. Seems the public has moved on from the latest scandal within Boris Johnson's administration rather quickly, which I fully expected would happen Many people believed that Boris Johnson was finished or it was the beginning of the end of his premiership. No chance. Staggering that the general public would still rather vote for more of this as opposed to change and a Government that actually works in the interest of the people, but I am not surprised in the slightest.
 
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Zoophonic

Well-known member
Which poll as a matter of interest?

Edit just seen one dont worry. It will be up
and down for the next two years.
 

Cosmonaut

Well-known member
Which poll as a matter of interest?
Yougov was the first one, was another couple though with latest model predictions, one was hung Parliament mind with Conservatives the largest party. I think they'll stay in power come the next GE as I find the opposition has been weak which is frustrating to put it mildly, though I am at a loss as to what the general public wants given the terrible state of politics in this day and age. And if the Tories do change leader before the next GE, it'll be a chance for them to recover from any damage suffered recently if any.
 

Cosmonaut

Well-known member
Christ .. not sure what I have just seen on Twitter just now then ... it does appear to be just the one after I have checked Britain Elects etc . Maybe a false alarm :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

That being said, I still think the way Labour are polling overall is still a worrying sign given the state of Boris Johnson's government.
 

Chris_Boro

Well-known member
Yougov was the first one, was another couple though with latest model predictions, one was hung Parliament mind with Conservatives the largest party. I think they'll stay in power come the next GE as I find the opposition has been weak which is frustrating to put it mildly, though I am at a loss as to what the general public wants given the terrible state of politics in this day and age. And if the Tories do change leader before the next GE, it'll be a chance for them to recover from any damage suffered recently if any.

All of the current models are of a hung parliament with Tories latest party bar Savanta. Which will be the likely outcome of the next election due to fptp favouring the Tories.

All this will change massively once the election cycle starts, the only thing the Tories have left is to keep Brexit and immigration in the headlines and by then next election those could also be their weakness.

I suspect the Tories will pull back ahead once the media "move on" and the 40% forget all about the sleaze.
 

Cosmonaut

Well-known member
All of the current models are of a hung parliament with Tories latest party bar Savanta. Which will be the likely outcome of the next election due to fptp favouring the Tories.

All this will change massively once the election cycle starts, the only thing the Tories have left is to keep Brexit and immigration in the headlines and by then next election those could also be their weakness.

I suspect the Tories will pull back ahead once the media "move on" and the 40% forget all about the sleaze.
Indeed, they will move on quickly ... there's no doubt about that.

Given the size of the majority the Tories hold currently anyway, it is going to take some time to ever see a Labour government again any time in the near future. They have their work cut out ... and I worry Starmer just isn't the man to accomplish this task. I wish Andy Burnham was the leader of the party and not in a position as Mayor currently.
 

Lottowyn

Well-known member
Surely rather than worrying about Labour's performance, these polls should be questioned.
How can a Labour lead switch to the Tories being ahead when all we've had in the past few days are a PMQs where BJ was on the verge of being ejected from the Chamber, a couple of thousand more migrants landing on our beaches and part of HS2 being scrapped ?
 

Chris_Boro

Well-known member
I would take all the polls with a huge pinch of salt, they are at best useful for gauging current affairs.

The next general election will be on multiple matters not the one issue Brexit vote of 2019. The current polls are weighed on the result of 2019 and the Brexit Referendum which is likely to favour the Tories.

This is why they swing all over the place from one week to the next as they move about with margins of error.
 

Cosmonaut

Well-known member
Surely rather than worrying about Labour's performance, these polls should be questioned.
How can a Labour lead switch to the Tories being ahead when all we've had in the past few days are a PMQs where BJ was on the verge of being ejected from the Chamber, a couple of thousand more migrants landing on our beaches and part of HS2 being scrapped ?
I am not sure :ROFLMAO:, it is a mystery, but they are according to Yougov ... Johnson is a slippery b****d, it just wouldn't surprise me if come a couple of weeks' time, this week is forgotten about entirely and it will be like it never happened. I have wondered for ages now, exactly how low does this administration need to sink before the mood of the voting public changes. They have insulted the public repeatedly and been shambolic governing in general.

I hope I am proven wrong by Starmer eventually, I am still not convinced though.
 

Chris_Boro

Well-known member
Indeed, they will move on quickly ... there's no doubt about that.

Given the size of the majority the Tories hold currently anyway, it is going to take some time to ever see a Labour government again any time in the near future. They have their work cut out ... and I worry Starmer just isn't the man to accomplish this task. I wish Andy Burnham was the leader of the party and not in a position as Mayor currently.

Labour's issue is without Scotland they are unlikely to be able to gain a majority of any significance. However current trends also have the Tories short in a hung parliament and are very unlikely to find a party to prop up a majority for them to govern.

The next election is at least 2 years away bar some kind of Tory meltdown as the polls just don't support a snap election for the Tories.
 

Cosmonaut

Well-known member
Labour's issue is without Scotland they are unlikely to be able to gain a majority of any significance. However current trends also have the Tories short in a hung parliament and are very unlikely to find a party to prop up a majority for them to govern.

The next election is at least 2 years away bar some kind of Tory meltdown as the polls just don't support a snap election for the Tories.
Yeah, the SNP would be no given to work with if it comes to needing them to form a coalition, which I think is where Labour will find themselves at best come the next GE. Speculation of them wanting to be able to vote on independence as a condition etc .. awkward
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Surely rather than worrying about Labour's performance, these polls should be questioned.
How can a Labour lead switch to the Tories being ahead when all we've had in the past few days are a PMQs where BJ was on the verge of being ejected from the Chamber, a couple of thousand more migrants landing on our beaches and part of HS2 being scrapped ?

Most of the polls in recent days (including this one) have been within the margin of error (+/- 4 points; 90% confidence interval), meaning that a one point lead for the Conservatives could actually be a 5 point lead, or a 3 point lead for Labour, or somewhere in between. Given most of the recent polls are breaking for Labour, it's most likely that any sampling error is on that side of the equation.

Also, YouGov tend to prompt respondents for the Green Party, which not all pollsters do in the first instance. Research has shown that prompting for a minor party can add 1-2 points to their polling results. In the case of the Green Party, the majority of those extra 1-2 points would most likely come from respondents who might otherwise state Labour.
 

Chris_Boro

Well-known member
Yeah, the SNP would be no given to work with if it comes to needing them to form a coalition, which I think is where Labour will find themselves at best come the next GE. Speculation of them wanting to be able to vote on independence as a condition etc .. awkward

There still isn't enough of support for Indyref2 which would be even less if the Tories lose their majority. The SNP then could be tempted by more devolution, but who knows at this point.
 
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