Tories back in poll lead, didn't take long ...

WeeGord said:
By elections generally have a much lower turnout, the weather was pretty cold and people are still concerned with Covid so standing in queues isn't something people want to do. The result was pretty much a foregone conclusion in a very strong, true blue safe seat.

The story should be the almost 11% swing to the Labour Party from the Tories in one of their strongest seats, which if replicated nationally would make Labour the biggest party in a General Election. Despite retaining the seat this will not sit comfortably with many at Tory HQ.
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You are far more optimistic than I am. Of course byelections have a lower turnout, but if Labour was in good shape, with the Tories in a mess they should really get their 'core' vote out. 'Swing' means very little, if anything, here.
 
Capybara said:
You are far more optimistic than I am. Of course byelections have a lower turnout, but if Labour was in good shape, with the Tories in a mess they should really get their 'core' vote out. 'Swing' means very little, if anything, here.
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You can't expect over an entire constituency one party to get general election type turnout in a by-election, on a freezing December with covid still around.

Even still, Labour got 6.7k votes, down from 10.8k in the GE but given half the turnout it represents a significant % increase which if replicated in the next GE could flip the seat (assuming a similar Tory % loss).
 
Chris_Boro said:
You can't expect over an entire constituency one party to get general election type turnout in a by-election, on a freezing December with covid still around.

Even still, Labour got 6.7k votes, down from 10.8k in the GE but given half the turnout it represents a significant % increase which if replicated in the next GE could flip the seat (assuming a similar Tory % loss).
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In mid-term, with a scummy government and the Liberals not putting in any effort, I think I can expect a much better Labour turnout simply on the basis that Labour voters should be much more motivated to vote. Plus, they should be picking up votes from other parties.
 
asredastheycome said:
19,000 majority cut to 4,478 on Old Bexley. Thats a 10% swing to Labour. Thats something to grasp at and take forward. Still need to do more though.
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It's not a 'real' swing to labour - it's a reapportionment of the anti-tory vote i.e. LibDems voting Labour. Expect to see an apparent swing against Labour in seats where the Libdems have a better chance
 
all polls come with a margin of error. if the poll is of 1000 people (ignore any that are not this size) then the margin of error is +/- 3%

So basically any poll that shows a change within that range, from the last poll, is probably just telling you the same thing it did last time and there hasnt really been anything happen. when you see a +1 to the Tories or a -1 to labour it doesnt mean anyone has changed their mind since the last poll. Also a single poll on its own means nothing - you have to look at multiple polls over a period of time. One poll showing a big rise for one party is probably an outlier - it only shows some shift if its followed up by other polls showing the same numbers.

Think about it in terms of yourselves - do you change your opinions on politicians or parties based on PMQ's or a single news headline or issue? Of course you dont

This is why it takes a while for bad stories to make a difference. sometimes a single thing can change minds - like Dominic Cummings going to barnard castle - but mostly bad news has the effect of an accretion against a party that may tip people over eventually, or not.

people wondering why the Tories are not at -30% in the polls are ignoring their own feelings about negative headlines for labour

the other thing though is most people are not that politically engaged - most people are not thinking about politics that much at all, so its only really big stories or at election time, when they focus on who they want to vote for
 
A lot of the Conservative votes look to have gone to the anti immigrant minor parties.
 
From the Best For Britain website, following their MRP voting analysis incorporating effective opposition co-operating I linked to on #40

'Previous polling from Best for Britain, published in May 2021 shows that around 63% of people want like-minded parties to work together at election-time, rising to 70% support among Labour voters.

Such cooperation would only be necessary for one election if a new government introduced voting reform for future general elections because first past the post structurally favours the Conservatives.'
 
"Londoners desperate to escape their flats, street violence and bad vibes following brexit & Covid"

Johnny, out of interest - are you being ironic or serious with that comment?
 
Lefty said:
From the Best For Britain website, following their MRP voting analysis incorporating effective opposition co-operating I linked to on #40

'Previous polling from Best for Britain, published in May 2021 shows that around 63% of people want like-minded parties to work together at election-time, rising to 70% support among Labour voters.

Such cooperation would only be necessary for one election if a new government introduced voting reform for future general elections because first past the post structurally favours the Conservatives.'
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First past the post favours Labour too - hence the majority of Labour MPs don't support it.

The real losers are the Liberals who pick up a low number of MPs relative to their share of the vote.
 
Bexley is as blue as you can get. Ted Heaths old constituency. Kent very brexity. I take nothing from that by election result.

That Worthing one though is interesting.
 
Redwurzel said:
First past the post favours Labour too - hence the majority of Labour MPs don't support it.

The real losers are the Liberals who pick up a low number of MPs relative to their share of the vote.
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First past the post only works in a two party system. Lib Dems had their chance to get a propertional system, but Clegg and his cronies sold it for ministerial limos, as big a betrayal to Liberals as tuition fees imho.
 
Cosmonaut said:
... most oppositions in mid-term are usually way ahead. Just seen a few polls tweeted by a Labour Member of the House of Lords. Seems the public has moved on from the latest scandal within Boris Johnson's administration rather quickly, which I fully expected would happen Many people believed that Boris Johnson was finished or it was the beginning of the end of his premiership. No chance. Staggering that the general public would still rather vote for more of this as opposed to change and a Government that actually works in the interest of the people, but I am not surprised in the slightest.
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Labour are in a right state. Starmer just isn’t cutting it. This idea of turning the Labour Party into the Conservative party alienates traditional Labour voters and just breed mistrust with those sitting on the fence. The complete lack of self awareness is staggering.
 
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