Villa have competition for Rogers

Frozen Horse said:
What makes a difference to me is that we have to overtake 5 teams to make it. Let's say Coventry, for example, fall apart and we over take them. That's great, makes our job easier, but even if that happens, we still have Hull, Norwich, and Watford to overtake. Making up a 1-2 point difference over 1 team is far easier than making it up on all 5 teams. At least one of them will win every week.
Click to expand...
I'd say that we've still got plenty of time, if we are still behind 3+ teams with 4 games left then yes, it's a real outside shot. As of today with so many games left and all those teams having multiple games against each other, I'm not overly concerned. I'd rather have the points in the bag of course, but for me the biggest issue is getting a consistent first XI on the pitch, do that and we have a decent chance, because we know this team and this manager can win 5 in 6 and be above those sides in a flash. We won 6 on the bounce this season, and you can pick 8 or 9 blocks of 6 games from Nov-Mar season before where we won 5 out of 6.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think it's 2 from 7 for the last 2 play off spots which, if it were random, gives us a 28% chance of making it. Except we're currently 7th of those 7 clubs: they all have a bit of head start, which has got to reduce that chance further. They've all got their ifs and buts too.

Even if we get 6th, well past evidence suggests you have about a 7% chance of being promoted (20% if you make 5th). So, a slim chance of a slim chance; maybe a 2-3% chance of promotion from this position if we go for it.
Click to expand...
Bookies are currently offering 3-1, or 25%, on us making the playoffs which is close to your assessment. Divide by four makes it about 6% on promotion from where we are today. Not grounds for optimism.
 
Gramsci said:
Bookies are currently offering 3-1, or 25%, on us making the playoffs which is close to your assessment. Divide by four makes it about 6% on promotion from where we are today. Not grounds for optimism.
Click to expand...

I'd add that bookies odds are not probabilities.

Whatever the bookie thinks the probability is, the odds they offer will be slightly shorter.

That's their profit margin. If they give odds of 3/1, they think the probability is more lik 4/1.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
You'd put us ahead of Ipswich? A team nearly 20 points ahead of us?

I think we'd go in 3rd favourites at best and I think, so far at least, Coventry and WBA look stronger than us.

I'm not sure what the stats are around 5th and 6th placed teams going up, but I know the odds over the years are very low.
Click to expand...
I'd fancy us against Ipswich depending on injuries/transfers. if we had mcgree, Rogers, Jones behind LL or Coburn and a midfield of Hackney and O'brien or Howson then I think we'd beat them over 2 legs. No idea what out best defence looks like right now though.
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
I'd fancy us against Ipswich depending on injuries/transfers. if we had mcgree, Rogers, Jones behind LL or Coburn and a midfield of Hackney and O'brien or Howson then I think we'd beat them over 2 legs. No idea what out best defence looks like right now though.
Click to expand...
Of the sides most likely to finish 3rd and 4th (assuming we can manage 5th or 6th) Ipswich are the side I'd most like to face in a two legged playoff. Not least because them not finishing in the top 2 would mean they must have dropped off in form.
 
GingerTravel said:
Of the sides most likely to finish 3rd and 4th (assuming we can manage 5th or 6th) Ipswich are the side I'd most like to face in a two legged playoff. Not least because them not finishing in the top 2 would mean they must have dropped off in form.
Click to expand...
yeah, we saw exactly what happens to sides that lose their form late on last year.

Personally I think their tactics have been found out a little too. They got off to an absolute flier but since November they've won 6 out of 15 league games and are averaging 1.5 points a game. Still puts them about 8th, but way off where they were. 3 cleansheets in 19 games too. They have weaknesses. I'd take a two leg play off right now against them
 
I'd probably fancy our chances more Vs Ipswich than Southampton and Leeds, but they'd still be strong favourites.

The league table doesn't lie after the midpoint, and they've been 19 points better than us over 28 matches.

That their reserves lost to Maidstone should not disguise that.

However, most likely we'd need to beat 2 of those 3 to actually go up.
 
Last edited:
Nothing to be frightened of, they've been average since Nov, only away wins are against our injury hit team and Wimbledon in the cup. At home they've had a decent run of fixtures, decent result against Leicester and Cov, Sunderland were in turmoil after sacking mogga, Tough ground to go to obviously, but I'd be confident over two legs.

1706623499002.png
 
Bookies odds are irrelevant. We've dropped points because a. we've been weak defensively giving away too many poor goals and b. we don't have the firepower of last season to score enough. We have strengthened defensively this window with Ayling and Thomas. If we can perhaps add someone to score goals as well then who knows. We will have O'brien who will effectively be a new signing, Azaz and McGree coming back. There are 18 games to go to put a good run together. It's all about what happens from now on in.

If we do make the play offs then we will have had to put a good run together and confidence and form will surely be good. That would make the position look a bit better than it does now comparing us to other potential play off opponents. Besides the favourites don't always win the play offs - see us last year.

No need to be pessimistic just yet.
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
I'd fancy us against Ipswich depending on injuries/transfers. if we had mcgree, Rogers, Jones behind LL or Coburn and a midfield of Hackney and O'brien or Howson then I think we'd beat them over 2 legs. No idea what out best defence looks like right now though.
Click to expand...
I think play-off games can throw up odd results, its a cup game really, but they're 19 points ahead of us for a reason.

Whether the gap is still 19 points come the end of the season is another thing of course.
 
BoroMart said:
yeah, we saw exactly what happens to sides that lose their form late on last year.

Personally I think their tactics have been found out a little too. They got off to an absolute flier but since November they've won 6 out of 15 league games and are averaging 1.5 points a game. Still puts them about 8th, but way off where they were. 3 cleansheets in 19 games too. They have weaknesses. I'd take a two leg play off right now against them
Click to expand...
They thrashed us. We've lost 6 times at home.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top