YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

Laughing said:
2024 I would imagine
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I looked up the Blair victories and Labour did get 42.7% of the vote at the 1997 GE. The Tories dropped to 30.7%.

I expect the Tories to get a bit less than 30% this time as Reform are a threat amongst older voters and possibly take a few percent off their 30%.

I am not sure Labour will quite get 42.7% this time - Starmer 2024 is not Blair 1997, the New Labour PR campaign was excellent and Cool Britannia in 1997. Scotland is different now with the SNP the major party there for the last 15 years and nearly half of the population supporting them particularly ex Labour voters. The Sun newspaper helped Labour in 1997 by switching from the Tories to Labour in its tone that hasn't happened yet. Plus there is the Gaza effect in some continuencies where Labour traditionally got a clear majority of the Muslim vote, but may not in this election.
 
It would ine interesting if the Tories got 23% - that would be a drop from 43.5% in 2019.

Did Houchen lose 30% of his voters at a recent mayorial election - the above would be close to 50% loss of voters.
 
Redwurzel said:
I looked up the Blair victories and Labour did get 42.7% of the vote at the 1997 GE. The Tories dropped to 30.7%.

I expect the Tories to get a bit less than 30% this time as Reform are a threat amongst older voters and possibly take a few percent off their 30%.

I am not sure Labour will quite get 42.7% this time - Starmer 2024 is not Blair 1997, the New Labour PR campaign was excellent and Cool Britannia in 1997. Scotland is different now with the SNP the major party there for the last 15 years and nearly half of the population supporting them particularly ex Labour voters. The Sun newspaper helped Labour in 1997 by switching from the Tories to Labour in its tone that hasn't happened yet. Plus there is the Gaza effect in some continuencies where Labour traditionally got a clear majority of the Muslim vote, but may not in this election.
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I think the overall Labour share will depend largely on how much tactical voting goes on. Tactical voting will see Labours share drop a bit, but see the tories decimated. Choc chip or strawberry icecream.
 
JLP basically assume Don't Knows will vote how they did at previous elections and include them in their figures that way, and even then that's a sizeable Labour majority.

Without that weighting, they have:

Lab 43% Con 26% Reform 10% Lib Dem 10% Green 6%
 
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