This Brexit stuff just gets stranger
- Thread starter Trug
- Start date
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
There is no Brexit Unicorn, the shellfish guys are ‘digging in’ they’re trying to get their markets reopened and I suspect/hope they will have some success, the actual demand hasn’t gone away, just the access to supply it. I also would have a good bet they’re looking at as many other options as they can, whether it be non European markets, farming different types of fish or whatever.
Adi_Dem
Well-known member
On what possible basis do you reach that conclusion? Any evidence to support it? The industry has been decimated. Completely and utterly destroyed.
Again, this fundamentally misunderstands the position. The demand very much has gone because we no longer comply with our biggest trading partner's requirements which has directly resulted in exports almost drying up to zero. That 'demand' is now being satisfied by those providers that do meet the requirements of the EU leaving UK businesses in the cold. No amount of stiff upper lip is going to fix that problem.
So, which ones then. Talk us through that one. We have closed the door on exporting these perishable goods to the countries that are closest to us so which other countries do you think we can now supply to competitively taking into account the huge costs of transporting to further afield and in the context of the trade deals we have struck with those countries.
Another gem. You think that (a) it is going to be easy and timely to transition from one form of fishing to another, (b) these businesses have the funds to invest in that sort of transition and (c) the rest of the fishing industry isn't suffering a very similar fate?
I'm sorry to keep doing this but I am so sick of reading this sort of ill thought out nonsense.
Andy_W
Well-known member
This could largely be impossible though, and a risk that most should not be taking.
"Giving up" could be the best option, for most, it would lock in any funds they have in place now, rather than letting them bleed away over 3,6,12 month, or years. If it was me, and I had that downturn and could see no immediate sign of recovery, I would just stop trading, instantly, sell up and go do something else, or possibly relocate to the EU, and then sell up. You can't fight the market, and you can't create a new market in the UK which has taken centuries to develop. Most can't wait 3,6, 12 months whilst any changes are made/ discovered. It doesn't appear to be a massively lucrative industry anyway, losing 10-20% would kill off most of them, so losing 50-90% is game over.
Every day that goes by is another day that your customers are searching for and finding new suppliers, alternate product or changing their menus/ what they supply, and once they've gone, it will be 10 times harder to get them back.
What will happen here is that 90% of them go out of business, and the government then sells off the rights to the EU, or sorts a deal out ina few years, once one of their mates has got set up with a load of boats (bought at a knockdown price from those that went broke).
Andy_W
Well-known member
They've already gone bust, they just don't even know it yet (or the business owners have not made it public knowledge yet).
2021 is going to be the year for off-loading assets related to UK-EU trade, then they will get sold to the EU (which will outgrow us), and the EU businesses will then use them to beat us further into the ground.
We're going to get stabbed by our own sword, that we handed over, or ran over by our own fishing boats in this case.
Adi_Dem
Well-known member
Absolutely right. There are loads of factors that start coming into play: directors fiduciary duties, the switch from duties to shareholders to mitigating loss for creditors, wrongful trading without a reasonable prospect of avoiding insolvency. A lot of my work at the moment is advising on these very issues.
Centralscrutinizer
Well-known member
Friend sent me this the other day. He works for the company.
www.kentonline.co.uk
Export ban Brexit blow for town's oyster industry
A Kent town's world famous oyster export industry could be on the rocks if a post-Brexit row is not swiftly resolved.
NYboro
Well-known member
Unfortunately, giving up has to be an option for some small businesses. Do you think you could run a small to medium-size seafood business where the majority of their business was with the EU? DEFRA telling them to look to the US and Canada does not cut it - far too expensive to ship there; it would need to be air-freighted and it's not like they don't have their own seafood businesses. You can extrapolate that to all sorts of other small businesses.
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
Don’t be sorry about my ill thought out nonsense, you are clearly far more informed than me, what would you do?
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
How can the UK hoi polloi be expected to eat shellfish when the Royal Family won’t eat it?
zaphod
Active member
There were good reasons other than racism/xenophobia to vote for Brexit, the utter shambolic incompetence of the European Commission being one of them. I voted Remain despite my low opinion of the EU, because of the likely economic consequences, which are now becoming apparent.
I don't think many people have realised the huge economic restructuring that will have to happen, including in sectors like fishing and agriculture, which mostly voted for Brexit. Some sectors will have to refocus on domestic markets, including probably changing their product mix. The pandemic has also highlighted the need to become more self-sufficient and less dependant on supplies from China and the EU. It's going to involve a lot of turmoil, including businesses going bust.
I don't think many people have realised the huge economic restructuring that will have to happen, including in sectors like fishing and agriculture, which mostly voted for Brexit. Some sectors will have to refocus on domestic markets, including probably changing their product mix. The pandemic has also highlighted the need to become more self-sufficient and less dependant on supplies from China and the EU. It's going to involve a lot of turmoil, including businesses going bust.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
Life is always a compromise though isn’t it?
As you say, there was plenty of things about the EU which could be improved but we all knew that the trading benefit was enormous.
Unfortunately I do think there was a selfish generation involved in the vote whose working lives were over, or largely over, who didn’t look any further than their own desires and prejudices.
Since the Covid vaccine rollout I’ve realised for the first time that that age group is a staggering 15 to 20 million voters.
No wonder we are out and Bunter is in.
As you say, there was plenty of things about the EU which could be improved but we all knew that the trading benefit was enormous.
Unfortunately I do think there was a selfish generation involved in the vote whose working lives were over, or largely over, who didn’t look any further than their own desires and prejudices.
Since the Covid vaccine rollout I’ve realised for the first time that that age group is a staggering 15 to 20 million voters.
No wonder we are out and Bunter is in.
Adi_Dem
Well-known member
No there weren't. 5 years later and I am still yet to read or head a single argument that holds up under the slightest scrutiny.
That's precisely my point. There is very little that these businesses can do and arguing that they can stiff upper lip their way out of it is just b***ks.
Adi_Dem
Well-known member
There is a difference between why people voted Leave and what they are prepared to admit was the reason they voted Leave.
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Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
I‘m not arguing they stiff upper lip it, where did I say that? That’s a rhetorical question btw because I can’t be ar5ed with a pointless circular internet argument based on your misinterpretation of what I may or may not have said.
The article that Centralscrutiniser posted is very interesting and seems to say there’s a lot more to this than what’s reported. If there’s outright no ban does that mean there’s room for some negotiation. In 30 years of running my business there were some desolate times, you’ll be too young to remember how desperate things seemed in 2008 for example. Giving up never felt like an option And I’m glad we didn’t.
Way_Out_West
Well-known member
From the article; EU diktat, Brussels Bureaucrats, EU being obstructive.Friend sent me this the other day. He works for the company.
Export ban Brexit blow for town's oyster industry
A Kent town's world famous oyster export industry could be on the rocks if a post-Brexit row is not swiftly resolved.
It's what they voted for, not to be part of the club. Don't blame the club for our decision to leave and relinquish membership privileges.
Adi_Dem
Well-known member
"You need to dig in and adapt, deal with the situation. Every situation is different, your customers and their demand still exist, is there another way to get to them? Are there potential new customers and markets? Can you adapt what you supply? I regret we’ve left Europe, in my view it was wrong. But that‘s history now, my point is do we either deal with the hand we’re played or just give up. Giving up isn’t the option."
Stiff upper lip was a shorthand for this, which is exactly what you said. It was and is a nonsensical suggestion and fundamentally misunderstands the depth of problem being faced, as I said. I am not misinterpreting what you said at all. I am taking your words and responding to them.
Putting to one side the glaring inaccuracies of that article (which is really poorly written), it is correct that there is no ban. Or at least no ban that hasn't been self imposed through our trade agreement. We are now a third country. We have no special status to the EU and are, in fact, in many ways a competitor. We chose to be a third country. If we don't meet the standards that are set by the EU (and they are entitled to set whatever standards they choose) then we cannot export our product. It really is as simple as that. On top of that there are now miles of red tape that didn't exist before that on small margin businesses will make the difference between surviving and not.
I'm not sure how old you think I am but I was a 30 year old general counsel in the management team of a large company in 2008 that suffered more than most as a consequence of that crash. I remember it very well because people I know lost their jobs and homes. For many, it was bleak. But you're comparing apples and oranges. It is not a question of giving up. It is naive to suggest it is.
WindyNook
Well-known member
John le Carré, chronicler of Englishness, died Irish, son reveals
Author was so opposed to Brexit that he took Irish citizenship to remain European
www.theguardian.com
Up yours Brexit I'd rather be European.