Tories close gap on Labour to 1 point

BlindBoyGrunt said:
If you're talking about public service broadcasters, they won't try to close them down but privatise them, then they and their supporters can own them and own the narrative.
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Lenin once said. “If we are to have an opposition, we may as well control it” or words to that effect.
The BBC wouldn’t have to be privatised….the government already control the means to appoint senior management positions….Richard Sharp, Chairman has donated over £400K to the party… and was also Sunak’s boss at Goldman-Sachs. Tim Davie, Director General….A long time Tory apparatchik from the 1990’s
 
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You do get the feeling voters will be tactical in parts of the country to oust the Tories out, or conversely, former Tory voters turning to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. Conservative HQ are already planting the seeds about electoral pacts amongst the progressive parties and nationalist parties. If you took those Green votes away at distributed them to Labour and the Lib Dems, we would probably be looking at a coalition, which would not be the worst thing in the world. The Lib Dems under Ed Davey have shook off the foul stench that surrounded them following their opportunitism under Clegg. I am fascinated to see how Labour do in Scotland to be honest. There has been a drop in support for independence, and on the fence Scots may be tempted to back Labour since they cannot bring themselves to vote for Sturgeon. I know some will point to Hartlepool in the local elections, but I do think a lot of the Red Wall are just fed up of Boris. Brexit won't dominate the next election, and the fact they have failed to level up will hurt them in areas such as Bolton, Bury, Redcar, etc.
 
So...

TechneUK +4 LAB (39%)
Yougov +8 LAB (39%)
Redfield & Wilton +6 LAB (39%)
Savanta +7 LAB (41%)
Ipsos +6 LAB (39%)
Opinium +3 LAB (37%)*
Survation +9 LAB (42%)**

*using new methodology.
**monthly polling, due another soon.

Labour would be about 10 short of a majority on polling average.
 
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mitch_at_merseyside said:
You do get the feeling voters will be tactical in parts of the country to oust the Tories out, or conversely, former Tory voters turning to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. Conservative HQ are already planting the seeds about electoral pacts amongst the progressive parties and nationalist parties. If you took those Green votes away at distributed them to Labour and the Lib Dems, we would probably be looking at a coalition, which would not be the worst thing in the world. The Lib Dems under Ed Davey have shook off the foul stench that surrounded them following their opportunitism under Clegg. I am fascinated to see how Labour do in Scotland to be honest. There has been a drop in support for independence, and on the fence Scots may be tempted to back Labour since they cannot bring themselves to vote for Sturgeon. I know some will point to Hartlepool in the local elections, but I do think a lot of the Red Wall are just fed up of Boris. Brexit won't dominate the next election, and the fact they have failed to level up will hurt them in areas such as Bolton, Bury, Redcar, etc.
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I am likely to vote lib dem for tactical reasons, I don't think labour have a chance in central beds.
 
Colin Warnek said:
Don't think Labour have a chance of getting back in as long as the SNP are there.
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They have a near 80% chance of being the largest party and 51% chance of a majority.

Polling also indicates Labour wining back a chunk of seats in Scotland.

Labour may have troubles gaining a majority due to Scotland, however the Tories have no chance if their current polling collapse in the South continues.
 
Chris_Boro said:
They have a near 80% chance of being the largest party and 51% chance of a majority.

Polling also indicates Labour wining back a chunk of seats in Scotland.

Labour may have troubles gaining a majority due to Scotland, however the Tories have no chance if there current polling collapse in the South continues.
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Polls are just polls unfortunately. Barring a major feck up there's too much ground to make up.
 
Chris_Boro said:
So you don't move your opinion from a set of results 2 and a half years ago?

Lots has changed and that ground has fell from under the Tories, almost certainly their majority. If that wasn't the case we would be having another election very soon.
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Even if an election were tomorrow, the majority wouldn't go. I do think the Tories are waiting for the right time to shake off Boris but there's no Labour party capable of victory in sight, unless they join forces with the SNP somehow.
 
Colin Warnek said:
Even if an election were tomorrow, the majority wouldn't go. I do think the Tories are waiting for the right time to shake off Boris but there's no Labour party capable of victory in sight, unless they join forces with the SNP somehow.
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Yes it would, if the Tories felt they could win another majority, we would be having another election tomorrow.

Polls have proven to be accurate enough to show an election result within a tight margin of error. Applying that current margin of error for the Tories and against Labour leaves the Tories short of a majority.

With all of the above not even counting manifestos or tactical voting. Even boundary changes and other gerrymandering still wouldn't be enough.
 
Chris_Boro said:
Yes it would, if the Tories felt they could win another majority, we would be having another election tomorrow.

Polls have proven to be accurate enough to show an election result within a tight margin of error. Applying that current margin of error for the Tories and against Labour leaves the Tories short of a majority.

With all of the above not even counting manifestos or tactical voting. Even boundary changes and other gerrymandering still wouldn't be enough.
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Without resorting to Google I thought the idea of a “fixed term” parliament was precisely so a government couldn’t call elections when they felt like it (thought they could win).
 
The last few days for me have been particularly bad. Mentally I have been in a dark place. Water has been leaking into my garage and it has been hard work tracing where it has been coming from. Today the outside drain was blocked and I had to get rods to clean it. I am not as young as I used to be and those flippin manhole covers seem to be a lot heavier than I remember. I managed to put my back out in the process so am now in agony. I know that my numbers are going to come up in the Euro's tonight and I also know I will forget to put them on. So when I see polls showing Labour ahead of the Tories on a consistent basis my spirits lift and a ray of light brightens my mood.
 
Chris_Boro said:
Yes it would, if the Tories felt they could win another majority, we would be having another election tomorrow.

Polls have proven to be accurate enough to show an election result within a tight margin of error. Applying that current margin of error for the Tories and against Labour leaves the Tories short of a majority.

With all of the above not even counting manifestos or tactical voting. Even boundary changes and other gerrymandering still wouldn't be enough.
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They're holding all the aces as they're still in and are guaranteed to be for at least the next 2 years. Gives them a chance to jettison Boris at the appropriate time. I don't see Labour winning an election without Scotland ever.
 
WoodallServices said:
Without resorting to Google I thought the idea of a “fixed term” parliament was precisely so a government couldn’t call elections when they felt like it (thought they could win).
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The FTPA could be by passed by majority, not that it's now relevant as it has just been abolished.

Now they call an election if they feel like it with a maximum term of 5 years.
 
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