Boris pulls out

The last time Boris pulled out for the good of the party was when Carrie caught him with the tea lady during a covid lockdown party.
 
It's better for Labour that Boris isn't running, it could have been hailed as the second coming of the messiah, whereas in reality it would have just been the second half of the circus act, after Truss doing the Half Time "show".

Sunak will be worse for Labour, as in the GE vote would be closer, but he would handle the country and economy better than the rest of the clowns. I don't see any risk of any Tory beating Labour at the next GE, that ship has sailed.

I'd rather they get Sunak in, might lead to some sort of recovery, so labour isn't taking over in the deepest hole ever dug, which the press would of course frame as all Labours fault.

Effectively if Labour win the 2025 GE after a couple of years of Sunak, then they will have a better chance of staying in for a second term, as they would likely be starting from firmer ground.

Recovery after 2 more years of BJ, Truss or whoever would have put the ship on an even worse course, and been extremely difficult for Labour to turn around in 5 years, which would ultimately likely lead to them losing a 2030 GE.

The best bet of the Tories getting into power in the future, would actually be to call a GE now, effectively knowing they would lose, but handing the reigns to Labour at the worst time possible, which is why I possibly wouldn't want a GE now. I suppose it depends on this war ending, and how quick we could get inflation and mortgage rates down, but the next 2-3 years looks a write off for me.

I want Labour to be in power 2025-2030, and then again for 2030-35 etc, I suppose I'd rather take that than being in power for 2023 to 2028, and gambling to assume power could be retained in 2028-2033.
 
The question is, like Truss, how long before one side of the Tory Party or the other, decides they don't like certain policy and votes against the Government? Perhaps even a vote of confidence? I feel we will have a GE pretty soon, one way or another, this Parliament isn't going to run to term.
 
Andy_W said:
Sunak will be worse for Labour, as in the GE vote would be closer, but he would handle the country and economy better than the rest of the clowns. I don't see any risk of any Tory beating Labour at the next GE, that ship has sailed.
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depends on a few key factors. He is diametrically opposed to the ERG on economics. Does he freeze them out of the cabinet, thus escalating the Tory civil war and destroying the party.

OR

Does he try and build bridges with them, have some on his cabinet, and therefore they have a voice and influence on fiscal decisions? Thus watering down Sunaks more sound economic policies.

Therein lies the route cause of the Tory party problems, they've allowed significant sectors of the party to buy into extremist economic views on behalf of billionaires and until they square that circle they're in big big trouble. The public bought the brexit lie from the ERG, will they buy the next one? It doesn't seem so
 
chickenrunner said:
Disagree, the only people who should select the leader of a governing party, and hence prime minister, are it's MPs who were democratically elected by the country as a whole (whether we like it or not). We are after all a parliamentary democracy. Letting party members vote may be democratic in party terms but is completely undemocratic in terms of the nation of which the prime minister is the leader. However if the party is in opposition they can use whatever process they want to select a leader.
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They're selecting the leader of a political party. It's the same with all parties.

The right thing to do would have been to call an election, not only has the leadership changed twice but the mandate on which they got to lead the country has also changed.

It's an internal Tory party matter though, and the members should have the say over who leads their party. And let's be honest here, their MPs are a swivel eyed bunch of right wing fanatics, it's why they can't find a decent leader.
 
BoroMart said:
depends on a few key factors. He is diametrically opposed to the ERG on economics. Does he freeze them out of the cabinet, thus escalating the Tory civil war and destroying the party.

OR

Does he try and build bridges with them, have some on his cabinet, and therefore they have a voice and influence on fiscal decisions? Thus watering down Sunaks more sound economic policies.

Therein lies the route cause of the Tory party problems, they've allowed significant sectors of the party to buy into extremist economic views on behalf of billionaires and until they square that circle they're in big big trouble. The public bought the brexit lie from the ERG, will they buy the next one? It doesn't seem so
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Exactly, they're all pulling in different directions, it is going to be effectively impossible for them, but it's their own doing. They went too far right after the brexit "win" and it's come back to bite them in the ****, and will continue to do so. They need to boot out the ERG, if they are to have any chance of a future.

If they survive to 2025, then they could be out for a long while until they really soften their approach. Or they will split and you'll end up with half going ever further right, and the rest probably centre right.
Whilst I don't want a super a further far-right party, even as a choice, I'd probably take the problems that causes (even if we had PR), as they would never get into power. The other Tories would go relatively Tory lite, and Labour could then aim a little further left. I'd be content with fluctuating with Tory lite and a slightly further left Labour, but we can't really say where Labour are positionally yet, as a) they're not in power, and b) it's best if they keep their cards close to their chest.

KS is going to be Prime Minister, by 2025 at the latest, and the Tories are going to have a lot of dark days until then, and there's not really many signs of any daylight which is great as it gets them out, but it's going to be really bad for "normal" people, as a result of this.

Another good thing is that as the Tories are so completely ****ed, labour could lean a little further left, as they would still hoover up enough centre votes, as the Tories are so bad. I wouldn't want them risking a loss, or not having a safe majority to do this though. The key thing is winning, but it looks all but in the bag.
 
TeessideCleveland said:
While I hope you're right I cannot see the Tories risking a general election until they absolutely have to - January 2025 I think
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It's not a risk, not anymore, they're certainly going out in 2025, it's just a case of whether they would rather get out now, with a 2023 GE, and try and get back in for 2028. Or they cling on for two years of crap, and have zero chance of getting back in until 2030 and 2035.

I don't see tactically why they would hold on, they need to just cut their losses, but I'm now really starting to think an early GE is going to be bad for the UK, when looking at it over the next 12 years, rather than just focusing on the next two.

If DC was still there, he would probably be telling them to cut their losses, and hand over this wreck of a country to Labour, as that is going to be one hell of a difficult term, for the next 2-3 years at least. They won't want to hold on till 2025, when things are expected to pick up slightly, as they know full well this will do wonders for Labour.
 
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