I totally agree, it wasn't a mistake to pull out, and I actually made a lot more than 7x as I didn't invest in BTC itself, I just use the BTC price as an indicator because the overall marketcap follows the BTC price.
A little bit gutted I didn't jump back in at 3k, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I now only own 1 ETH (and have for the past 4 years, since it was ~£200 haha).
1. Every time throughout the history of Bitcoin, every time there is a major rise like what has just occurred, it's followed by a 30% "correction". It's the same in the stock market.
Over the last couple of weeks it's been slightly more than 30%? but the rise has also been higher and faster than ever before too, so that's my reasoning behind my scenario #1.
2. I don't believe it will go up 2.3x within the next 9 months. My predictions, and it's all total opinion, are either #1: a short term rise back up to £45-50k, then continue on a steady path, or #2: another "crypto winter", the same as in 2018 where the price continues to fall, probably to the $10,000 region, everyone thinks it's dead for 2-3 years, while the rich traders stock up on more, before another media hype, new **** to base the hype off (like NFTs) and then a rise higher than ever before.
For your scenarios...
#3 - We are 100% in a tech bubble which will burst (possibly already has, my tech stocks have took an absolute battering this month)... but blockchain tech is growing beyond regular tech into pretty much every other market, so although it will be massively affected when the bubble bursts, I believe it'll just flatline and play into my scenario #2.
#4 - Over 90% of all BTC has already been mined, and it'll cost more to mine the final 10% than it will to mine the previous 90% around 10x over (totally made up figures but you get the idea).
It hasn't gone to the floor since China banned it, it's gone to the floor because people THOUGHT it was going to the floor when China banned, then they sold it, which in turn makes it go to the floor.
It's called "buying the rumour, selling the news". Mining has very little influence on the price, it's all media hype and has been since the early days.