General Election - Thursday June 8th 2023

They will go early for an election but not this summer.

They cannot do autumn this year because the nhs will be crisis managing, boats and inflation there will be no improvement. However they are starting their selection process indicating an election in spring next year. By which time gravity will have brought down inflation which will be tooted as a tory win. The nhs will be recovering after another brutal winter.

They will not wait until Jan 2025,that will crucify them.
 
Laughing said:
They will go early for an election but not this summer.

They cannot do autumn this year because the nhs will be crisis managing, boats and inflation there will be no improvement. However they are starting their selection process indicating an election in spring next year. By which time gravity will have brought down inflation which will be tooted as a tory win. The nhs will be recovering after another brutal winter.

They will not wait until Jan 2025,that will crucify them.
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They are going to be crucified May 2024 or Jan 2025 so they will buy time to clear the coffers out before they vacate.
 
Laughing said:
They will not wait until Jan 2025,that will crucify them.
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I think they'll be crucified whenever they go, it's too far gone for them, but history does not support the proposition that going essentially the full five necessarily makes it worse. Four post-war PMs have done it, including Major twice, and Cameron as he didn't have a choice. Two of those elections, 1992 and 2015, saw the PM get back in. Two, 1964 and 2010, saw the LOTO take the keys for number 10 but without an effective working majority. Only one, Blair's 1997 landslide, saw a full working majority for the LOTO. Doesn't suggest that going the distance gets you crucified.

What should is their record of course. And the distance they are behind. But as a cautionary note, if we look at the three more recent of the close ones, the Opposition had leads of 21 in November 1990, 28 in September 2008, and 15 in February 2013, and those leads produced two losses and a coalition. Leads can unwind, always do to some extent, and the Tories need to give it time to see if this one does, unlikely though that seems.
 
Poll local elections. Usual warning: YouGov.

Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

LAB: 58% (+3)
CON: 18% (-5)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 7% (=)
RFM: 6% (+3)

Via @YouGov, 17-31 Mar.
Changes w/ 17 Jan 2022.
 
I think Labour to get most seats is a banker (certain).

Consevatives are going to lose some rural seats to the Liberals as evidence in by election results in Devon and Shropshire. say 20 seats

Conservatives have limited seats in the big cities, but where they do they will lose some, say 10 seats

Smaller cities/large towns not rural and not red wall - alot are held by the Consevatives in England. I can see them losing 10 to 20 seats here.

That pushes Labour into most seats category

Then there is Scotland, Wales and the Red Wall seats - Labour need to win seats in these areas that they used to dominate, say under Blair all of Teesside, Darlington, Scarboro/Whitby, Hartlepool, all Labour under Blair.

Ref Red Wall - only half will go back in my opinion - Labour now is not Labour under Blair and Blair left these areas not trustijng Labour as they used to - look at Harlepool by election result.

Scotland - Labour will pick up a few seats, but not many, because around 48% Scots want independence and it over 40% in all seats. Labour is now seen as a English party.

Wales - Tories will lose half their seats a few to Labour. Labour has struggled a bit in Welsh Assembly will not help them in a General Election, Again UK Labour seen a bit more English than they used to be is not an asset.

Overall that should give Labour just enough for an overall majority, overwise its a coalition with SNP, Liberals.
 
I'm keeping an eye on this. My plan is to buy all of the unions jacks in the world and then sell them back to the political parties during election time at an inflated price. A bit like Michelle mone except with flags rather than lifesaving medical equipment.
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
I'm keeping an eye on this. My plan is to buy all of the unions jacks in the world and then sell them back to the political parties during election time at an inflated price. A bit like Michelle mone except with flags rather than lifesaving medical equipment.
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You might be a bit too late. I'm pretty sure that Starmer has already bought them all.
 
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