Hoof from another thread. Bournemouth’s run in.

[TeaCider]

They play second last game, it'll be over by then. By easter monday I think Bournemouth will have a 14 point lead on Forest with 5 to play, that'll be insurmountable

Obviously if Bournemouth just win their games it's insurmountable, but there's no guarantee they will.

They've lost to us already this season and drawn with West Brom and Coventry.

I don't think it's right to say there's no plausible situation where they drop points against teams they've already dropped points against.

Even as little as 3 draws in their next 7 games could open it up for a showdown.

I don't think it will happen, but I don't think you can write it off at this point yet.

 

[Andy_W]

It isn't plausible, it's possible in as much as it might happen, no more than that. Bournemouth have had 27 runs off 9 games this season and haven't come close to dropping near 1 ppg. Betting odds are used as an indication of probability, its hardly irrelevant, in fact it is very relevant.

It won't happen.

Yeah, by plausible I meant not probable, albeit the word can be used to mean probable.

The thing is, was them getting 6 points from 8 games plausible (or probable), when in the previous 15 games they had won 11 and drawn 4? That's what happened earlier in the season. They're not in as good a form now as they were then, and have to play those same teams.

I think there's maybe a 1 in 7 chance they get 8/9 points, the thing is if those points aren't taken from Forest and Boro, it could open up a lot more than it appears now.

Just looking at games and points it's extremely unlikely, but when factoring in who they have to play and have not been great against good sides, all we really need them to do is repeat what they did earlier in the season, but that's a tough ask too.

 

[Laughing]

Yeah, by plausible I meant not probable, albeit the word can be used to mean probable.

The thing is, was them getting 6 points from 8 games plausible (or probable), when in the previous 15 games they had won 11 and drawn 4? That's what happened earlier in the season. They're not in as good a form now as they were then, and have to play those same teams.

I think there's maybe a 1 in 7 chance they get 8/9 points, the thing is if those points aren't taken from Forest and Boro, it could open up a lot more than it appears now.

Just looking at games and points it's extremely unlikely, but when factoring in who they have to play and have not been great against good sides, all we really need them to do is repeat what they did earlier in the season, but that's a tough ask too.

Yeah I am not a big fan of looking at individual games. I know why you are doing it, but you have to take a run off games. What other factors played into that poor run? Was it just decent opposition, or did they have injuries or suspensions.

One other factor to consider is how teams will approach games with Bournemouth and how they themselves can play. Bournemouth don't need to win, they could could draw every game and still finish second would be more likely than not.

It will make for an interesting end to the season, there are still plenty of teams in the mix for top 6 and plenty play each other too.

I have boro finishing 3rd and forest 4th. I think Huddersfield miss out from the current top 6.

 

[Frozen Horse]

If we win every game until the end of the season, we'll have 86 points, 3 less than "lucky" Karanka.

That would mean we'd have beaten Bournemouth, and they'd need 14 points from their other 8 to top us (assuming their GD remains superior). 14 from 8 is not a given

However, even if we win 6 (including Bournemouth) and draw 2, which is still cracking form, they'd only need 10 from 8, and I can't see them failing to do that.

 

[Middlesbrough123]

If Bournemouth manage to lose the next 3 games let’s see how they react to that . Either way it’s one game at a time for us we need to keep winning

 

[Andy_W]

Yeah I am not a big fan of looking at individual games. I know why you are doing it, but you have to take a run off games. What other factors played into that poor run? Was it just decent opposition, or did they have injuries or suspensions.

One other factor to consider is how teams will approach games with Bournemouth and how they themselves can play. Bournemouth don't need to win, they could could draw every game and still finish second would be more likely than not.

It will make for an interesting end to the season, there are still plenty of teams in the mix for top 6 and plenty play each other too.

I have boro finishing 3rd and forest 4th. I think Huddersfield miss out from the current top 6.

Yeah, that's the thing it probably depends more on other teams than Bournemouth.

I don't think sitting back and playing for draws would be a good move mind, and I bet their fans would get a bit edgy about that.

I think 3 and 4 will be us and then Forest, I think we'll pick up a fair bit now after the break, with some players back and without the cup distraction and don't expect forest can maintain that level of form, albeit enough to get above everyone else. 77-80 points seems practical for both.

Blackburn have Dack back, and a pretty easy run in, so maybe 12 points for them, so 74, which I think will get 5th.

6th is going to be one hell of a fight though.

Huddersfield have four home games, but the next two against QPR and Luton aren't givens, then they have to come to us. I can still see them getting another 7-10 points though, so 73-76.

Luton's run in isn't great but would expect them to get around 9 points, so 73, and pip Sheff Utd on goal difference/ goals scored.

Sheff Utd's run in isn't great, so maybe 9 points for them, but have to play Fulham last and hopefully Fulham go out with a bang, so 70-73 for them.

I'd take us 3rd and Luton 6th mind. Of course we don't want Forest in the play offs, but other than that I'd rather not have Sheff Utd and Blackburn, in that order. I think Blackburn are better than Sheff Utd, with Dack, but we don't want the recent Sheff Utd game in our thoughts.

 

[Laughing]

Yeah, that's the thing it probably depends more on other teams than Bournemouth.

I don't think sitting back and playing for draws would be a good move mind, and I bet their fans would get a bit edgy about that.

I think 3 and 4 will be us and then Forest, I think we'll pick up a fair bit now after the break, with some players back and without the cup distraction and don't expect forest can maintain that level of form, albeit enough to get above everyone else. 77-80 points seems practical for both.

Blackburn have Dack back, and a pretty easy run in, so maybe 12 points for them, so 74, which I think will get 5th.

6th is going to be one hell of a fight though.

Huddersfield have four home games, but the next two against QPR and Luton aren't givens, then they have to come to us. I can still see them getting another 7-10 points though, so 73-76.

Luton's run in isn't great but would expect them to get around 9 points, so 73, and pip Sheff Utd on goal difference/ goals scored.

Sheff Utd's run in isn't great, so maybe 9 points for them, but have to play Fulham last and hopefully Fulham go out with a bang, so 70-73 for them.

I'd take us 3rd and Luton 6th mind. Of course we don't want Forest in the play offs, but other than that I'd rather not have Sheff Utd and Blackburn, in that order. I think Blackburn are better than Sheff Utd, with Dack, but we don't want the recent Sheff Utd game in our thoughts.

One more factor that may play a part is any teams with a garuanteed playoff spot will likely choose to rest some players for the playoffs. That may have a big impact.

 

[WoodallServices]

One more factor that may play a part is any teams with a garuanteed playoff spot will likely choose to rest some players for the playoffs. That may have a big impact.

With a small squad we’ll certainly have to do that.

 

[Andy_W]

One more factor that may play a part is any teams with a garuanteed playoff spot will likely choose to rest some players for the playoffs. That may have a big impact.

I think I'd be trying to guarantee not getting us or forest, or getting pipped by 7th.

That could play a part for us or forest though, if after a few games 2nd is even more out the window then we might start rotating more.

It's going to be fairly to the wire for all of it though, I expect, so if there is any resting, it might just be the last one or two games.

 

[BoroMart]

One more factor that may play a part is any teams with a garuanteed playoff spot will likely choose to rest some players for the playoffs. That may have a big impact.

I don't think anyone can take the foot off gas until maybe the final game and even then it could only be 1 or 2 teams

 

[Laughing]

I think I'd be trying to guarantee not getting us or forest, or getting pipped by 7th.

That could play a part for us or forest though, if after a few games 2nd is even more out the window then we might start rotating more.

It's going to be fairly to the wire for all of it though, I expect, so if there is any resting, it might just be the last one or two games.

I want forest and I don't mind Wembley or 2 legs. Them missing spence will be hugely influential, particularly given the reason why.

I think you may be right the scenario wont kick in until the last 3 games or so, unless things change from the way they have been all season.

I believe that we will be secure with a few games to go, but then I am a suporter and my game analysis goes out the window with boro, which is why I seldom have more than a very small trade on them.

It's gonna be fun one way or the other.

Oh and I think Lumley is an OK keeper and will be with us next season too.

Queue the fighting!

 

[Oooo]

are the advantages of finishing 3rd over 6th that great? I am not so sure they are.

 

[Laughing]

I don't think anyone can take the foot off gas until maybe the final game and even then it could only be 1 or 2 teams

Really? You may be right. Once the games in hand are done I think the table will look very different... Not much of a prediction I know.

 

[Andy_W]

are the advantages of finishing 3rd over 6th that great? I am not so sure they are.

Not if it's a choice between 3rd or 6th, as you would still have to play each other

I'd most likely rather get 3rd and rather be playing the 6th team, than who I expect to get 4/5th mind.