Hoof from another thread. Bournemouth’s run in.

things rarely go smoothly at this stage of the season do they. am expecting twists & turns. watever happens, its been an exciting season, and the championship once again proves its hard to beat for unpredictable results & excitement.
 
They can chuck their next four games in the bin.. even with their nearest rival winning their next game Bournemouth would still be three points ahead. So even five games and they are still ahead.. three wins and a draw could see them right. 82 points?

6th WBA (A),
9th Sheffield Utd (A)
15th Boro (H)
18th Coventry (A)
23rd Fulham (H) - Fulham will be comfortably promoted
26th Swansea (A) - Swansea comfortably mid table
30th Blackburn (A) - I think Blackburn will have drifted away from the playoffs
3rd Forest (H) - Forest will be comfortably in the playoffs
7th Millwall (H) - Millwall with nothing to play for
 
H
They can chuck their next four games in the bin.. even with their nearest rival winning their next game Bournemouth would still be three points ahead. So even five games and they are still ahead.. three wins and a draw could see them right. 82 points?

6th WBA (A),
9th Sheffield Utd (A)
15th Boro (H)
18th Coventry (A)
23rd Fulham (H) - Fulham will be comfortably promoted
26th Swansea (A) - Swansea comfortably mid table
30th Blackburn (A) - I think Blackburn will have drifted away from the playoffs
3rd Forest (H) - Forest will be comfortably in the playoffs
7th Millwall (H) - Millwall with nothing to play for
This is the Championship. There is no logic to the results. Oh, and how much are win bonuses worth nowadays?
 
Bournemouth aren't out of it yet, Forest could still catch them. Forest form over the last 6 is good and their goal difference is similar, + they can get two more points than us. But it seems realistically if Bouremouth don't loose their next two matches then there won't be the motivation for other teams to go unbeaten and AFCB will probably be able to dig deep and grind out draws, without looking over their shoulder.
 
In their last 5 they've, drew at home to Peterborough, only had two shots on target (how?), beat Derby 2-0 at home, drew with Reading, who are 21st, then strangely won 3-0 at Huddersfield. Strange side in a strange league.

In the last 10, their other wins have been against Birmingham (18), Blackpool (14), Stoke (13), Derby (23) and Bristol City (19), not exactly hard games.

By the end of October they had only dropped 8 points from 15 games, four draws, so were unbeaten, 37 points at ~2.5 PPG, and 5 points clear at the top. The next 8 they got 6 points (0.75 PPG), and those 8 are largely the teams they have to play again.

They seem like flat track bullies to me, but they won't be playing on a flat track for the last 8, and if they replicate that bad run again, against those teams they are due to play, then it will be close.

Like I say though, the only team that could catch them is possibly us or maybe Forest, and we'd need to win at their place. The next three games for both sides will determine if it's on or not.

It's still very unlikely, but there is a route there, probably depends on us as much as it does them.

79-82 points seems the range that anyone other than Bournemouth could realistically get.
 
It's a tough run in for them but they probably only need about 6 points in 9 games to go up. It's not going to happen.
They'll need more than 6 I think (78 points), us and Forest have a max of 86-88 points, but 2.5PPG from either is 82-84.

They got 6 points from 8 games earlier in the year, largely against the same sides. Even if they got 9 points, which I think they will, then that may not be enough.
 
They'll need more than 6 I think (78 points), us and Forest have a max of 86-88 points, but 2.5PPG from either is 82-84.

They got 6 points from 8 games earlier in the year, largely against the same sides. Even if they got 9 points, which I think they will, then that may not be enough.
the thing is there are multiple teams playing each other still, I think they 'could' get up with just 6 more points, but yes, they probably need a little more than that, 10 would be very tough to overcome. Us and Forest will drop points in this run in
 
I'm not optimistic enough to genuinely believe we can get automatic promotion now, but I'd quite like it to still be up for debate so Bournemouth have to try and beat the teams around us that they've yet to play.

That game against Forest is especially important.
 
They're just isn't a single argument, outside of "it could happen" to suggest Bournemouth don't finish second. Their ppg over the season, the last 10 and the last 6 games all have them finishing, comfortably 2nd.

Yes they could fall apart but it isn't very likely. They are 1 to 10 on betfair to finish top 2. The kind of dip in form it would take suggests to me that that is a generous price, though good luck getting a decent amount matched.

More interestingly boro are 4/1 for promotion which I think is a great price. I don't see us finishing out of the top 6,which should make us 3/1 for promotion so you are getting a free tick or two in the price.
 
the thing is there are multiple teams playing each other still, I think they 'could' get up with just 6 more points, but yes, they probably need a little more than that, 10 would be very tough to overcome. Us and Forest will drop points in this run in
Oh I know, it could all be over by next Saturday, but there is a semi plausible route. Next two games and Us/Forest will clear it up no end.
 
They're just isn't a single argument, outside of "it could happen" to suggest Bournemouth don't finish second. Their ppg over the season, the last 10 and the last 6 games all have them finishing, comfortably 2nd.

Yes they could fall apart but it isn't very likely. They are 1 to 10 on betfair to finish top 2. The kind of dip in form it would take suggests to me that that is a generous price, though good luck getting a decent amount matched.

More interestingly boro are 4/1 for promotion which I think is a great price. I don't see us finishing out of the top 6,which should make us 3/1 for promotion so you are getting a free tick or two in the price.
They're not playing those teams who they've played in the last 10 and last 6 though, they're playing a load of teams who they got 6 points from, out of 8 games earlier on in the season.

They will more than likely do it mind, 1/10 is more realistic than the 1/25-33 which it was a couple of days ago.

I got Boro at 6/1 for promotion and 20/1 for second a month or two back, so won't be putting any more in. Don't want to lay off, as that's a bad omen of course, and I don't want it to be my fault for not having faith :LOL:
 
Andy there really isn't a semi plausible route. The smallest gap when considering games played, is to forest who are 11 points behind with the same games to play, 9. That would require forest to get 1.3 points per game MORE than Bournemouth. That means if Bournemouth do collapse to, 1 ppg in the last 9. Forest would still need 2.33 points per game, over 9 games. They have managed exactly that in their last 6 but only 2.1 in the last 10.

For Forest to overtake Bournemouth they would have to string together their best 9 results all season and Bournemouth would have to put a run together of 9 games that sees them drop from 2.3 ppg in the last 10 to 1 ppg.

The maths just doesn't add up. The maths for boro is even worse and we're the second most likely to catch them.

Please do not lay Bournemouth at 1/14 you are throwing your money away if you do.
 
I think the difference in points between Bournemouth and Fulham will be smaller than the difference between Bournemouth and third place.

They take second easily for me!
 
It's a 9 point gap for Forest with the same number of games played, and they still have Bournemouth to play.

Assume Forest win that game, a 6 point gap with 8 other games to play is far from insurmountable.

It is 100% plausible, even though Bournemouth would still be clear favourites.

Spouting betting odds is irrelevant, Bournemouth dropping points in their last 9 matches with tough opposition is very possible and not pie in the sky.
 
It's a 9 point gap for Forest with the same number of games played, and they still have Bournemouth to play.

Assume Forest win that game, a 6 point gap with 8 other games to play is far from insurmountable.

It is 100% plausible, even though Bournemouth would still be clear favourites.

Spouting betting odds is irrelevant, Bournemouth dropping points in their last 9 matches with tough opposition is very possible and not pie in the sky.
It isn't plausible, it's possible in as much as it might happen, no more than that. Bournemouth have had 27 runs off 9 games this season and haven't come close to dropping near 1 ppg. Betting odds are used as an indication of probability, its hardly irrelevant, in fact it is very relevant.

It won't happen.
 
I'm not optimistic enough to genuinely believe we can get automatic promotion now, but I'd quite like it to still be up for debate so Bournemouth have to try and beat the teams around us that they've yet to play.

That game against Forest is especially important.
Agreed, we could see one or two teams drop out of the play off chase and the auto promotion effectively decided this week.

Sheff U vs QPR is huge. Who ever loses is probably out of the play off chase. A draw will leave both struggling

Millwall have got Swansea and Barnsley at home. Win both and they could be back in the mix, if they don't win both forget it.

Luton have got Peterborough and Huddersfield away. Win both and they're in the play offs.

Forest have got Cov and Birm at home, if they don't win both then they've put massive pressure on themselves

We've got Fulham and Hull, need to win 1 of them or we are in trouble

Bournemouth have got West Brom and Sheff U away. Tough week for them. Win them both and second place will be effectively secure.

Blackburn only have one game, Blackpool at home, derby game, fail to win and they're in trouble

Huddersfield just that Luton home game......lose that and the pressure is on.

I think we will drop to 8th on Good Friday and fans will start to say "we've bottled it".....but then we will come back after that and blast our way back in during the last 5 games.
 
It's a 9 point gap for Forest with the same number of games played, and they still have Bournemouth to play.
They play second last game, it'll be over by then. By easter monday I think Bournemouth will have a 14 point lead on Forest with 5 to play, that'll be insurmountable
 
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