Hoof from another thread. Bournemouth’s run in.

sambaDTR

sambaDTR

Well-known member
Clinton Morrison on Quest last night saying Fulham and Bournemouth are already up. Not sure with these fixtures. Nine games in 31 days, eight of them against teams in the top half with something to play for, plus Swansea who won 4.0 away yesterday. They will either help us by beating our rivals for the playoffs or blew up?

Bournemouth‘s remaining fixtures. Interesting!

APRIL
6th WBA (A), 9th Sheffield Utd (A), 15th Boro (H), 18th Coventry (A), 23rd Fulham (H), 26th Swansea (A), 30th Blackburn (A)

MAY
3rd Forest (H), 7th Millwall (H).
 
agreed, nothings sorted yet. but afcb have been poor this season against "lower" teams, who sit back, than "better" teams who have a go - so who knows
 
I said a while back that Bournemouth's run in was horrendous, and we could get second, but our form dipped a bit and theirs improved.

They're the in form side over the last 10 games now though, albeit against mostly poor sides.

We're probably the best chance of getting second, out of those below them, basically due to our games in hand (5 homes games) or possible points, but Bournemouth are 10 points clear of us, with a game in hand over us too. Hard to turn that around in 8 games.

From those hard 9 games, they're going to get at least 9 points, putting them on at least 81, and that's assuming we beat them at their place, which isn't a given of course.

If we win every home game (5 of them, including Fulham and Huddersfield), and draw two away games and win at Bournemouth, then that's 20 points and gets us to 82 points. We could even get results at Preston and Swansea mind, one win is better than two draws of course.

For Bournemouth, Forest and Milwall could be out of it by then, Swansea won't have much to play for, WBA & Coventry could be out of it now, they could go on a run, but there's too many above who could also have good runs.

Bournemouth are like best odds of 1/14 for promotion, and even that's a lay I think, but they'll probably go up still. Probably 1/5 seems more realistic, but most bookies are 1/33! No way do they go up 32/33 from here.
 
Andy_W said:
I said a while back that Bournemouth's run in was horrendous, and we could get second, but our form dipped a bit and theirs improved.

They're the in form side over the last 10 games now though, albeit against mostly poor sides.

We're probably the best chance of getting second, out of those below them, basically due to our games in hand (5 homes games) or possible points, but Bournemouth are 10 points clear of us, with a game in hand over us too. Hard to turn that around in 8 games.

From those hard 9 games, they're going to get at least 9 points, putting them on at least 81, and that's assuming we beat them at their place, which isn't a given of course.

If we win every home game (5 of them, including Fulham and Huddersfield), and draw two away games and win at Bournemouth, then that's 20 points and gets us to 82 points. We could even get results at Preston and Swansea mind, one win is better than two draws of course.

For Bournemouth, Forest and Milwall could be out of it by then, Swansea won't have much to play for, WBA & Coventry could be out of it now, they could go on a run, but there's too many above who could also have good runs.

Bournemouth are like best odds of 1/14 for promotion, and even that's a lay I think, but they'll probably go up still. Probably 1/5 seems more realistic, but most bookies are 1/33! No way do they go up 32/33 from here.
Click to expand...
Nice optimism Andy although the bookies rarely get it wrong....
Thanks 👍
 
Andy_W said:
I said a while back that Bournemouth's run in was horrendous, and we could get second, but our form dipped a bit and theirs improved.

They're the in form side over the last 10 games now though, albeit against mostly poor sides.

We're probably the best chance of getting second, out of those below them, basically due to our games in hand (5 homes games) or possible points, but Bournemouth are 10 points clear of us, with a game in hand over us too. Hard to turn that around in 8 games.

From those hard 9 games, they're going to get at least 9 points, putting them on at least 81, and that's assuming we beat them at their place, which isn't a given of course.

If we win every home game (5 of them, including Fulham and Huddersfield), and draw two away games and win at Bournemouth, then that's 20 points and gets us to 82 points. We could even get results at Preston and Swansea mind, one win is better than two draws of course.

For Bournemouth, Forest and Milwall could be out of it by then, Swansea won't have much to play for, WBA & Coventry could be out of it now, they could go on a run, but there's too many above who could also have good runs.

Bournemouth are like best odds of 1/14 for promotion, and even that's a lay I think, but they'll probably go up still. Probably 1/5 seems more realistic, but most bookies are 1/33! No way do they go up 32/33 from here.
Click to expand...
With their games in hand I'd make them 1/5 or even slightly greater for the autos, Fulham would be 1/33 or higher.
However the chances of them not even making the top 6 are absolutely minute, so the 1/4 average odds of them getting through the playoffs if so has to be counted in to their overall odds of promotion.

Which I'd place at 1/7 or thereabouts.
 
Agree with the earlier poster. Shocked by the Bournemouth run in.
If we beat Fulham mid week and obviously we have to beat Bournemouth at their place which is more than doable, that alone in a 6 point swing.
With the combination of the Bournemouth run in and us rested up, solid win yesterday and with Riley mcgree back in contention and fry ok. Honestly, I fancy us to canter past Bournemouth who have never been convincing
Come on boro!!!!
 
Ex Footy Legs said:
Agree with the earlier poster. Shocked by the Bournemouth run in.
If we beat Fulham mid week and obviously we have to beat Bournemouth at their place which is more than doable, that alone in a 6 point swing.
With the combination of the Bournemouth run in and us rested up, solid win yesterday and with Riley mcgree back in contention and fry ok. Honestly, I fancy us to canter past Bournemouth who have never been convincing
Come on boro!!!!
Click to expand...

being 2nd, games in hand, and top of the form table. wot do u have to do to 'be convincing'?!
 
If Bournemouth won 3 drew 3 and lost 3 - that would give them another 12 points add to theor curretn points that would be a total of 84 points and a very high goal difference. I think that would be enough to get second this season. If we got 2 points per game we would end up with 78 points. Those defeats at Bristol and Barnsley possibly cost us a chance to go for second.

For us to have any chance of catching Bournemouth they would have to pick up only 8 points for me from 9 games. (2/2/5).
 
afcb_acklam said:
being 2nd, games in hand, and top of the form table. wot do u have to do to 'be convincing'?!
Click to expand...
Last minute winner against the bang average Bristol is hardly ‘convincing’
I just think your manager doesn’t have the wherewithal to manage your lot over the line
He doesn’t have the experience to pull it off IMHO.
I might be wrong but we’ll soon see…
Bournemouth vs boro though has to be one of the biggest games of the season.
 
Redwurzel said:
If Bournemouth won 3 drew 3 and lost 3 - that would give them another 12 points add to theor curretn points that would be a total of 84 points and a very high goal difference. I think that would be enough to get second this season. If we got 2 points per game we would end up with 78 points. Those defeats at Bristol and Barnsley possibly cost us a chance to go for second.

For us to have any chance of catching Bournemouth they would have to pick up only 8 points for me from 9 games. (2/2/5).
Click to expand...
We have no chance of catching Bournemouth ! Can't believe people think we do....
 
Redwurzel said:
If Bournemouth won 3 drew 3 and lost 3 - that would give them another 12 points add to theor curretn points that would be a total of 84 points and a very high goal difference. I think that would be enough to get second this season. If we got 2 points per game we would end up with 78 points. Those defeats at Bristol and Barnsley possibly cost us a chance to go for second.

For us to have any chance of catching Bournemouth they would have to pick up only 8 points for me from 9 games. (2/2/5).
Click to expand...
When you consider the terrible run they went on earlier in the season and being drained of confidence you have to wonder if they are vulnerable to that happening again….it’s happened so they could implode again with Parker not having the experience to avert that type of negative momentum….when you consider their run in
 
Bournemouth are a good team , in good form with a very good goal difference. It's premature to say that they are already going up, but despite a few difficult games coming up everything is pointing to them doing so. It would take a huge momentum shift for them to drop out of the top 2, and I cannot see it happening.
 
Steer said:
Bournemouth are a good team , in good form with a very good goal difference. It's premature to say that they are already going up, but despite a few difficult games coming up everything is pointing to them doing so. It would take a huge momentum shift for them to drop out of the top 2, and I cannot see it happening.
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But it’s possible
 
Bournemouth with get auto promotion, no doubt whatsoever, it's the play off's for us and that would be a fantastic achievement considering where we were under Warnock.
Improvement since then under Wilder has been remarkable.
Let's follow Fulham and Bournemouth into the PL.
C'mon Boro
 
If we did manage to win all eight of our remaining games, Bournemouth would still only need 14 points out of their other 8 remaining games (15 if there was a crazy swing in goal difference).

All we can do is apply the pressure by winning our games and hope they crack, unlikely, but it's not over yet. A win at their place might just get the nerves jangling a bit
 
bostonboro said:
If we did manage to win all eight of our remaining games, Bournemouth would still only need 14 points out of their other 8 remaining games (15 if there was a crazy swing in goal difference).

All we can do is apply the pressure by winning our games and hope they crack, unlikely, but it's not over yet. A win at their place might just get the nerves jangling a bit
Click to expand...
Plus an injury to Solanke would be handy!
 
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