How many Play Off spots are left?

By the way if Akpom had scored his header at Coventry last seadon instead of spooning it wide we’d have probably gone to Wembley and faced off with Luton Town, a side we finished one place below in the league table. These are the margins we’re talking about. That’s Luton, with one of the smallest budgets in the league. We had a much bigger budget than them. It shows what can done if you’re clever with you cash.
 
I think Leicester, Leeds, Southampton are a certainty, they all have far superior squads and the ability to add significantly in January, usually one or two of the relegated suffer a bad start and thus are reticent to invest heavily in January, all three are well in the mix and will 'go again' in January. Ipswich will have a dodgy spell, their squad isn't good enough, but they have enough of a buffer to scrape in. Leaves two spots, sadly I don't think Boro are good enough this season to get in, I admire Carrick but he's showing a bit of naivety in not making us a bit more solid, particularly away from home, we can't keep conceding two or three goals every other game and expect to finish in the top six. We'll finish around 8-10th I reckon
 
By the way if Akpom had scored his header at Coventry last seadon instead of spooning it wide we’d have probably gone to Wembley and faced off with Luton Town, a side we finished one place below in the league table. These are the margins we’re talking about. That’s Luton, with one of the smallest budgets in the league. We had a much bigger budget than them. It shows what can done if you’re clever with you cash.
Anyone can beat anyone on any day. That's what is great about the championship. It doesn't change the fact that this season the 3 relegated teams are stronger than the 3 that got relegated last year.
 
I admire Carrick but he's showing a bit of naivety in not making us a bit more solid, particularly away from home, we can't keep conceding two or three goals every other game and expect to finish in the top six.
Which is utter bunkum when you consider that we've conceded 2 more goals than Ipswich and 1 less than Southampton.
 
No, they don't. There is less than 5% chance we go up via the autos. There is about a 40% chance we make the playoffs and if we do there is about 25% chance we win them. At best we've got about a 15% chance of promotion which means it is 85% likely we'll still be in the championship next season.
From the same poster who said yesterday "just pointing out that the stats aren't evidence of anything" :p
 
From the same poster who said yesterday "just pointing out that the stats aren't evidence of anything" :p
Stats can tell whatever story you want them to tell. They don't make anything true or false. Yesterday's discussion was completely different. It was trying to use a single stat to measure total performance which is ignoring a lot of things. A single stat can be evidence of correlation but not necessarily causation. Add some supporting stats in and you can maybe prove something.

Probability is different to stats and it also doesn't really tell you anything. 15% chance of promotion is not good odds but it's better than 1%. Even if it was 1% that wouldn't mean it couldn't happen, just that it would be less likely. Leicester won the PL at odds of 5000/1 so unlikely things do happen.
 
Actually surprised we are top 6 with bookies, but as mentioned it is a long season and still loads of games to go so that top six could easily change with two or three different teams by May
it's no surprise really. We're 3 points off the play offs despite only winning one out of the first seven or whatever it was. We're heading in that direction. I think we'll finish 5th.
 
Stats can tell whatever story you want them to tell. They don't make anything true or false. Yesterday's discussion was completely different. It was trying to use a single stat to measure total performance which is ignoring a lot of things. A single stat can be evidence of correlation but not necessarily causation. Add some supporting stats in and you can maybe prove something.

Probability is different to stats and it also doesn't really tell you anything. 15% chance of promotion is not good odds but it's better than 1%. Even if it was 1% that wouldn't mean it couldn't happen, just that it would be less likely. Leicester won the PL at odds of 5000/1 so unlikely things do happen.
The :p should have indicated I was being facetious but thanks anyway for taking the time write out that explanation of statistics. Very informative. :p
 
No, they don't. There is less than 5% chance we go up via the autos. There is about a 40% chance we make the playoffs and if we do there is about 25% chance we win them. At best we've got about a 15% chance of promotion which means it is 85% likely we'll still be in the championship next season.

Lots of twists and turns this season and you never know how those teams who are currently in the playoff places fair with injuries and suspensions. So far so good imo.
 
The 3 relegated clubs have big squads, budgets and capability to spend in Jan. They are a difficult 3 to get after.
Ipswich are nailed in for top 6 given how badly they’d now have to literally collapse.

So it leaves 5th and 6th for us to hope for.

There are lots of clubs who could put results together to make it.
Boro are one, but I am hopeful rather than confident.

Not to recognise that last season was a huge missed opportunity is rather odd.
 
Which is utter bunkum when you consider that we've conceded 2 more goals than Ipswich and 1 less than Southampton.
Not sure how it’s bunkum, when Southampton have 7pts more than us & Ipswich fifteen, its points that count and they are finding a way to concede similar amount of goals than us and get more points. Boro’s goals for & against are very skewed by two 4-0 wins, take them two games out and it doesn’t look so good
 
Not sure how it’s bunkum, when Southampton have 7pts more than us & Ipswich fifteen, its points that count and they are finding a way to concede similar amount of goals than us and get more points. Boro’s goals for & against are very skewed by two 4-0 wins, take them two games out and it doesn’t look so good
It’s bunkum because you said we can’t expect top 6 with the number of goals we concede, whereas the team 7 points ahead of us have conceded more and the team 15 points ahead of us have conceded only 2 fewer. Those two teams are showing that you can concede goals at a similar rate to us and pick up enough points to be top 6. 🤷🏼‍♂️
 
It’s bunkum because you said we can’t expect top 6 with the number of goals we concede, whereas the team 7 points ahead of us have conceded more and the team 15 points ahead of us have conceded only 2 fewer. Those two teams are showing that you can concede goals at a similar rate to us and pick up enough points to be top 6. 🤷🏼‍♂️
Yeah but you have to take our two 4-0 wins into account, which skews the goal difference heavily in our favour. Not to mention leaving us six points worse off, sending us tumbling towards the relegation zone. And can we remove one of the goals from the Bristol City game so the result feels more comprehensive? Maybe stick it on the Coventry defeat instead. Or maybe just say we won 3-1 at Norwich instead of 2-1.

There’s always a way to play down our form/prospects while talking up those of our rivals.
 
That's my top 6 as well.
And mine.

I can't see us finishing below Hull, Blackburn, PNE or Cardiff. I also think Sunderland will fade.

I think we'll come sixth with Norwich and Watford coming above the other teams I've mentioned.

Saying that, last season I kept saying Luton would fade...
 
Lots of points to play for still and some other teams may get injuries as we have. For me thought we must stop throwing away points like we have done recently when in good positions.
 
Back
Top