Norwich

[Laughing]

Hull 1 win in 7, 5 without a win at home, the natives will be revolting.

If we get through 30 mins 0-0 then I'd give the draw a 40%, us 35% and the, 25%. the longer the game goes on, the more their players will feel the pressure and tension.

Betfair is usually pretty good at forming football markets. Currently boro's implies chance at odds of 3.05 are 33%. With the draw being 30% and a home win 40%.

I'll have a look at betangel and give implied chances in different scenarios in a couple minutes.

 

[Ex Footy Legs]

Hull 1 win in 7, 5 without a win at home, the natives will be revolting.

If we get through 30 mins 0-0 then I'd give the draw a 40%, us 35% and the, 25%. the longer the game goes on, the more their players will feel the pressure and tension.

Been thinking about this though. LR will potentially tell his lot the same, ignore the crowd if it’s 0-0, after 60/70 mins, and that hull have an extra game in hand so Boro at a certain point will really have to go for it and that’s a way of hitting them on the break

All that said, let’s bury this average bunch of numpties !

 

[Laughing]

Hull 1 win in 7, 5 without a win at home, the natives will be revolting.

If we get through 30 mins 0-0 then I'd give the draw a 40%, us 35% and the, 25%. the longer the game goes on, the more their players will feel the pressure and tension.

So after 30 minutes at 0-0 our implies chance drops a little, about 25%. You would expect this as the implied chance of the draw increases. However if we take the lead at about 30 minutes. Our implied chance jumps to 65%. I'll post the screen shots in a minute.

edit: some screenshots




The greenline is boro, the blue the draw and the red hull.

 

[Ipad1977]

So after 30 minutes at 0-0 our implies chance drops a little, about 25%. You would expect this as the implied chance of the draw increases. However if we take the lead at about 30 minutes. Our implied chance jumps to 65%. I'll post the screen shots in a minute.

edit: some screenshots

View attachment 74985
View attachment 74986

The greenline is boro, the blue the draw and the red hull.

I'd prefer the red line to be Boro tbh. Green just feels wrong...

 

[Laughing]

I'd prefer the red line to be Boro tbh. Green just feels wrong...

Green for go, go, go..... Nah doesn't work. I can change the colours used, but couldn't be bothered.

 

[BoroMart]

So after 30 minutes at 0-0 our implies chance drops a little, about 25%. You would expect this as the implied chance of the draw increases. However if we take the lead at about 30 minutes. Our implied chance jumps to 65%. I'll post the screen shots in a minute.

edit: some screenshots

View attachment 74985
View attachment 74986

The greenline is boro, the blue the draw and the red hull.

that first graph is probably based on a standard model that two teams cancelling each other will see reduced odds of a win until it rediuced to the absolute of zero at full time. While the draw increases over such time. The difference between a Boro win and home win narrows the longer the match progresses

 

[Laughing]

that first graph is probably based on a standard model that two teams cancelling each other will see reduced odds of a win until it rediuced to the absolute of zero at full time. While the draw increases over such time. The difference between a Boro win and home win narrows the longer the match progresses

Betfair has to make a 100% book so all 3 odds, home, away and draw =100%. If Boro's odds tighten at nil nil then hull and draw have to reflect that.

Soccer mystic does use a fairly standard model and doesn't, as far as I am aware, take into account who is playing.

The actual odds during play will reflect who is dominant, not the standard model, but over time, 0-0 odds always go just one way, for obvious reasons.

I am trading the game, I'll post the 30 minutes odds and implied chance assuming there isn't a goal before 30 minutes.

My analysis says the under 2.5 is over priced by about 20%.