Anton_Berg
Well-known member
All the people who moved out of London recently will be looking to emigrate.
Russia threats of nuclear strike
- Thread starter UTB 1953
- Start date
madlad7773
Active member
Bang on...plus China do a LOT of trade with the west. With no one to buy their goods and services, you can't remain insular forever!
Lefty
Well-known member
I mostly agree.
However I was listening to an analyst recently who was saying that there is no such thing as a tactical battlefield nuclear weapon in reality. Russia will not use any nuclear weapons. Everyone in the Kremlin knows that the response would be severe and immediate for all of them, even if not nuclear in response. They have been shocked at the response as it is. They would remove Putin themselves.
Slightly more chance of chemical weapons being deployed, given they have supported such use in the Middle East and on various individuals like Navalny and Skripal, but that too would be met with a huge response. They might not have large stocks anyway.
You’re welcome! I was a resident of Moscow until shortly after the invasion so had a bit of insight from the everyday Russian side in the early stages
Agree with what you’ve said. I think a battlefield or tactical nuke is just a smaller warhead that can fit on a smaller delivery device - I think the Russian type is called the Iskander but not totally sure. Regardless, it’s known where they are stored and any attempt to move them will be seen.
As for Putin, no one knows for sure but it’s assumed that the competing power structures below him would likely facilitate his removal if their own lives (and vast sums of corrupt money) were at stake - the whole point is they support him as part of the крыша structure.
madlad7773
Active member
I think the problem is you can't reason with Putin. His utter belief is that this is the will of the Russian people when in reality, they are given such a scured view of the reality of whats happening.
Erimus74
Well-known member
As for Putin, no one knows for sure but it’s assumed that the competing power structures below him would likely facilitate his removal if their own lives (and vast sums of corrupt money) were at stake - the whole point is they support him as part of the крыша structure
Exactly my thoughts, the people around him with vast amounts of money, fast cars, the most expensive clothes, watches, woman, big homes, everything they want, or need at their finger tips, they will just say to each other, "do we really want to be obliterated"
Exactly my thoughts, the people around him with vast amounts of money, fast cars, the most expensive clothes, watches, woman, big homes, everything they want, or need at their finger tips, they will just say to each other, "do we really want to be obliterated"
SmallTown
Well-known member
You seem to be blaming the wrong side
Lefty
Well-known member
I think (assume) it refers to the power or umbrella structure of Putin's kleptocracy, where the Oligarchs were created by Putin and expected to support him, do his bidding, increase Russia's influence, via and in return for their wealth and status. It's symbiotic, but Putin is the mafia boss who takes his cut and everyone ultimately takes orders from, or face consequences. As Khodorkovsky found.
Randy
Well-known member
How have you come to that conclusion?
The Lithuania situation is a very dangerous one, Russia have brought it on themselves. They might retaliate in which case NATO has no choice but to get involved.
Germany firing up the coal power stations will give Greta a coronary.
Крыша or Krysha means “roof”, but has a new meaning since the fall of the USSR and the corruption and mafia madness that followed - Lefty has explained it well but if you want more:
How Muscle Works in Moscow
Understanding “krysha,” the word that explains why Russian life is all about having the right kind of protection.
foreignpolicy.com
SmallTown
Well-known member
So you're blaming Lithuania and Germany for sanctioning Russia? Weird
Muttley
Well-known member
They might. But it is very unlikely that it would be a military response for a few reasons. Firstly they are already heavily involved in a shooting war in Ukraine which isn't exactly proving to be a walk in the park. Secondly, aside from the stuff that they polish and parade through Red Square for on May day etc. they probably haven't much left to commit. That would leave a response like a missile strike, which given it would be on a NATO member would provoke an immediate and overwhelming response. So you can probably forget a military response.
So what are they left with? Difficult to say, they don't hold many cards, not sure if Lithuania is a customer for gas or oil, if they are they will shut the pipelines off. After that they are struggling which is why they have popped back to Moscow to decide on the "appropriate measures" to be taken "in the near future". I rather think they don't know what to do...
Randy
Well-known member
No.
I'm saying what's going on in Lithuania and Germany has the potential to escalate things.
Nice try though ST, I know it's been a few weeks since you've tried to get a rise out of somebody.
SmallTown
Well-known member
So, you ARE blaming those two countries. Interesting take
Randy
Well-known member
Only you could take it that way ST
madlad7773
Active member
Russia started this. Russia is running out of options, as their military can't get the job done. Few things this raises....1. They're not as mighty as they would have you believe, at least conventionally.
2. The perception of them worldwide has been shattered because now no one is frightened of them anymore and, in addition, they've become social pariahs.
3.If they can't get the job done conventionally against Ukraine, they've zero chance against NATO and its allies.
4. This is potentially the most dangerous phase as he's running out of options and the sabre rattling isn't working either. Add to that pressure from Africa for food and grain shortages and he's basically fooked. The only option left is either chemicals or nuclear and he dare not use those.
Backed into a corner, options failing....what next?
2. The perception of them worldwide has been shattered because now no one is frightened of them anymore and, in addition, they've become social pariahs.
3.If they can't get the job done conventionally against Ukraine, they've zero chance against NATO and its allies.
4. This is potentially the most dangerous phase as he's running out of options and the sabre rattling isn't working either. Add to that pressure from Africa for food and grain shortages and he's basically fooked. The only option left is either chemicals or nuclear and he dare not use those.
Backed into a corner, options failing....what next?
S7DiscoDown
Well-known member
To be fair I live about a mile from Portsmouth naval base. I served in said base for 23 years. I'd say its the premium port (sorry Plymouth/Guzz) as we have carriers.
So I'm confident that if that lunatic kicks off I'm fecked.
Continue to ramp up the rhetoric domestically blaming everything on the west and Nazis in Ukraine whilst sanctions bite and ordinary people start to really struggle (many have not had time to feel the effects significantly as yet).
Hope the people fall for the relentless propaganda and blame anyone but him whilst being seen as the strong defiant leader opposing an unfair international community.
Conveniently stay rich, keep the relevant lackeys at the trough and maintain as much of the facade of normality in Moscow and St Pete’s as possible, whilst life gets tougher elsewhere.
Play the game until the decadent west loses resolve due to energy/economic forces or becomes generally disinterested as with Georgia, Crimea etc and hope that some kind of a return to normality isn’t too far away, followed by western business and money flowing back into Kremlin coffers.
That’s my very amateur take on Putin’s strategy!