So how far down does the playoff race go now?
- Thread starter Frozen Horse
- Start date
Dynamo Kev
Active member
we are but if blades keep winning that will be over soon. unfortunately. nextr week of so will decide what our greatest aim is.
newusername
Well-known member
It isn't like getting out of relegation when 3 wins in 4 is a massive swing of form & then you can rest on your laurels for a bit.
The teams above them will be getting 3-4 wins as well and then repeating that the following 4 games.
Linny
Well-known member
Well, yeah. That’s how it generally works.
Chutney
Well-known member
That's my birthday. We're doomed, aren't we?
newyddion
Well-known member
I agree the top six is pretty much there, Watford maybe missing out to Sunderland or West Brom.. I predicted it to be Sunderland so I’m gonna stick with that.
Boro
Luton
Millwall
Sunderland
Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
T
Most teams in the top half, outside the top three aren't having those 3/4 wins on the trot. Look at how many defeats (including us) have racked up.
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TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Reading in 18th are only 8 points off the play-offs!
Frozen Horse
Well-known member
The thing is, overtaking 12 teams, some of whom have an 8 point lead, is a much harder task that the one we face, overtaking a single team with a 10 point lead. There are a total of 41 points between them and the playoffs, and they've got to reduce that to 0 to get in.
When Reading win, some of the teams ahead of them in the league are guaranteed to win: the gap doesn't close much.
Every time Reading fail to win, several teams will widen that gap.
OK, if Reading just win every match until the end of the season, they'll probably be in, but that isn't going to happen. They wouldn't be where they are now if they were capable of doing that. And, yes, we all know they cam from way back to win the whole league in 2012, but this is where they were at this stage of the season:
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newusername
Well-known member
Watford are the only team in the top 6 not to have 2+ ppg from the last 5. Below them in the league table West Brom & Sunderland are on 1.8 & 1.6 ppg in the last 5.
If Watford's slump continues those two are the ones best placed to take their place and also playing well enough to do so. They aren't reliant on turning their midtable season round by suddenly having league winners form and banging out 6 or 7 straight wins.
I think it is worth reiterating how bad our season was up until November. Before then we got back to back points twice, 2 draws (v Sheff Utd & Stoke) & a win & a draw under Leo and our best 5 game run was 7 points. After Preston we were 18 points behind Burnley & 12 points behind Sheff Utd, 11 points behind 6th and only outside the relegation spots on Goals Scored with 2 teams below us having games in hand.
Since Carrick took over our worst run is 9 points from 5 games, our best is 13. The turnaround has been nothing short of sensational & long may it continue (even so we've barely made a dent in the leads of Burnley & Sheff U and they've now got a game in hand).
That is the form & turnaround required from a team in midtable if they want to jump into the play offs, while everyone above you is getting around 2ppg you've got to be getting 2.5.
I can't believe Boro have done it, and despite the apparent closeness of the table 3 points for a win etc, I just can't see a second miracle happening this season for someone else.
parmoboy
Well-known member
Millwall having two games in hand over us and Sunderland and Blackburn both having one game in hand does worry me slightly. If they win their games the table is going to be tight.
I can't see us getting 2nd place to be honest. Maximum number of points we can get is 96. Sheff Utd need 35 points from 16 games to match that. Unless they have a dramatic turn around in form, they're going to come close to finishing on 96 points, and we won't win all of our games.
I can't see us getting 2nd place to be honest. Maximum number of points we can get is 96. Sheff Utd need 35 points from 16 games to match that. Unless they have a dramatic turn around in form, they're going to come close to finishing on 96 points, and we won't win all of our games.
AcklamAngel
Well-known member
Millwall’s next 3 games not easy. Coventry away, Sheff Utd home, then Burnley home. Will be interesting to see where they are after those 3 games
Ipad1977
Well-known member
Unless of course we have them in the final itself.
In truth it's tricky to quantify. What has happened over the last 7/8 games or so is that of the pack of almost a dozen teams within a few points of each other from the playoffs down to about 13th, a number of them have finally had less inconsistent form and are beginning to pull away whilst some have dropped, meeting the most in form of those coming up from below.
The result is that the clump around the edge of the playoffs has shrunk to 4 or 5 sides and the big thick wadge of teams in a tight area still exists, but it's dropped lower down the table to the 10th to 18th places.
Therefore it's hard to write off any of the sides in the lower bigger chunk from making the playoffs completely as they're still in with a shout if they seriously get their act together. Any of them could feasibly do it and the likelihood of ANY ONE OF THEM doing it would be surprisingly high. However each of their individual chances of doing it is actually quite low, owing to the fact that there's so many sides in those clumps that they'd have to better.
EDIT; As Frozenhorse has partly surmised already in his post tbh!
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Rofesleg
Well-known member
Only if we win every game while Sheff Utd are gettinh their few draws.
Ipad1977
Well-known member
There's also the fact that Luton's and one of Millwall's two games in hand on us is against each other which will help slightly as only one of them will benefit from that one, unless they draw which could be the best result as far as we're concerned.