The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Randy said:
You think we'll hit a million cases a day with vaccines and boosters?
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No, but that's not what he said. He said cases of Omicron could reach 1 million by the end of the month. Only the Telegraph said 1 million a day.

We currently have around 300k cases a week even without Omicron. Reaching 1 million Omicron cases by 31st December is not out of the realms of possibility if it keeps doubling every 2 or so days.
 
Still kids, kids still coming down, over 65's lowest for months (y)
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We have lift off in 20-24 (n)
Which is the age group Omicron kicked off in SA (n)
Get your boosters (if you can) (y)
 
Chris_Boro said:
No, but that's not what he said. He said cases of Omicron could reach 1 million by the end of the month. Only the Telegraph said 1 million a day.

We currently have around 300k cases a week even without Omicron. Reaching 1 million Omicron cases by 31st December is not out of the realms of possibility if it keeps doubling every 2 or so days.
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With vaccines and boosters?
Or does Omicron require a brand new vaccine to combat the milder illnesses that a currently been reported?
 
Randy said:
With vaccines and boosters?
Or does Omicron require a brand new vaccine to combat the milder illnesses that a currently been reported?
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No idea, was just referring to the maths of a million Omicron cases being possible if case do keep doubling every couple of days as is the case at the moment.

If Omicron does take over with vaccines being less effective then we might start seeing big numbers, but it's still too early, it might burn out.
 
BoroFur said:
I heard him say that Randy but I don't think he said 'daily'. I think he was trying to say 1m could have the infection at the same time.
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Yeah it was at the same time, so assume over the course of 7 days. We only need about 100k per day to get that, and we're nearly at that now.

50k cases a day, is probably double that in total, so maybe 700k over 7 days. We'll be at 70k confirmed a day soon probably, which is probably 140k total per day, so 1m per week.

A million a day is a case rate of 1400 per day, but the case rates we see mentioned are weekely, so would need 10k per 100k per week to get to that. I don't think any local authority area has ever been over 2k/100k 7 day, and the country as whole never been above 800/100k 7-day. Very little chance of a million a day, don't even think that is possible.
 
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Today's headline analysis:

• 58,194 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 50,867
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.3% to 49,199 per day, following 0.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 10.2% higher than one week ago (from 8.0% higher yesterday) and 11.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 11.0% higher yesterday and 11.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 120 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 148 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 2.7% to 118.7 per day, following 0.8% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is unchanged from one week ago (from 0.7% higher yesterday) and 5.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 2.3% lower yesterday and 19.9% lower 7 days ago)

Highest reported daily new cases since 9th January and 6th highest of whole pandemic.
 
Billy Horner said:
Today's headline analysis:

• 58,194 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 50,867
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.3% to 49,199 per day, following 0.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 10.2% higher than one week ago (from 8.0% higher yesterday) and 11.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 11.0% higher yesterday and 11.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 120 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 148 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 2.7% to 118.7 per day, following 0.8% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is unchanged from one week ago (from 0.7% higher yesterday) and 5.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 2.3% lower yesterday and 19.9% lower 7 days ago)

Highest reported daily new cases since 9th January and 6th highest of whole pandemic.
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Cheers Billy, but It appears like we have lift off. (n)

Time for vax, boosters and previous infection to step up to the plate, lets hope that's enough.

Could do with some of those not vaxed stepping up too.

I think we will avoid 2k hospitalisations a day, hopefully waaaay less than that. I don't expect some other countries with low vax and low infection to fare so well mind. If we get hit bad, most others might get hit worse, unless it actually is significantly weaker (which I'm not convinced it is, without vax or previous infection).
 
Andy_W said:
Cheers Billy, but It appears like we have lift off. (n)

Time for vax, boosters and previous infection to step up to the plate, lets hope that's enough.

Could do with some of those not vaxed stepping up too.

I think we will avoid 2k hospitalisations a day, hopefully waaaay less than that. I don't expect some other countries with low vax and low infection to fare so well mind. If we get hit bad, most others might get hit worse, unless it actually is significantly weaker (which I'm not convinced it is, without vax or previous infection).
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I am still hopeful omicron is weak enough to avoid hospitalizations, though I am quite worried as well. We will know soon enough. I dread being back at square one, which I am sure we all do.

One thing that has concerned me is the static rate of deaths for a while. It dipped and seems to now be bobbing about a midpoint.
 
Laughing said:
One thing that has concerned me is the static rate of deaths for a while. It dipped and seems to now be bobbing about a midpoint.
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Over 60's cases bounced up a bit a couple of weeks back, but it's on it's way down again in that group, so should hopefully drop deaths again soon. It is winter though, so hard to keep them down against that.
 
Andy_W said:
Over 60's cases bounced up a bit a couple of weeks back, but it's on it's way down again in that group, so should hopefully drop deaths again soon. It is winter though, so hard to keep them down against that.
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Yup, the graphs you post from time to time suggest the death rate should have been dropping, a bit of an uptick with the over 60's may be the issue as you say, I really hope so.

Also there is a black hole in the 25-59 (as I recall that is the ange used). Who knows whats going on there.
 
Laughing said:
Yup, the graphs you post from time to time suggest the death rate should have been dropping, a bit of an uptick with the over 60's may be the issue as you say, I really hope so.

Also there is a black hole in the 25-59 (as I recall that is the ange used). Who knows whats going on there.
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Can see from the below where Omicron is going to go (mainly). Effectively any colour 1 dose + infected or lighter, that hasn't had a recent dose or infection (ie more than say 3 months ago). Main chunk is in the 25-44, probably 2/3rds of them and what's left of the 45+ that have not been boosted.

I don't think 15-24, will get hit as hard as that's where the recent infection has been, but if there is any spread it will hit that group hardest as they're quite active in the most risk places.

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Today's headline analysis:

• 54,661 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 48,854
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.9% to 51,955 per day, following 1.4% increase yesterday (and 12th daily increase in the past 13 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 9.9% higher than one week ago (from 11.9% higher yesterday) and 19.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 17.9% higher yesterday and 13.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 38 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 52 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.4% to 118.7 per day, following 0.2% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 0.6% lower than one week ago (from 0.5% higher yesterday) and 0.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 1.7% lower yesterday and 18.6% lower 7 days ago)
 
Guess where Omicron is? :unsure:

So, the 20-29's now take top spot, considering they were 6th and well behind about two weeks ago.

What is interesting, is that most other age groups have started to tick down, or they're quite flat. Recent Delta infection of the kids might prove a good wall against Omicron and December infections.

Guess we will never really know if we were really nearing the HIT for Delta, but it really looks like we were, growth had really stalled in most age groups, even with the schools and everything open, and a busy time in the lead in to Crimbo.

Next step is finding out where that Omicron HIT is, but it's going to be way higher unfortunately.

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Today's headline analysis:

• 59,610 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 54,661
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 3.8% to 53,943 per day, following 0.9% increase yesterday (and 13th daily increase in the past 14 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 12.1% higher than one week ago (from 9.9% higher yesterday) and 25.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 19.9% higher yesterday and 13.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 150 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 38 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 3.6% to 114.4 per day, following 0.4% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 6.5% lower than one week ago (from 0.6% lower yesterday) and 3.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 0.8% lower yesterday and 12.4% lower 7 days ago)

5th highest reported daily new cases of whole pandemic. Highest 7-day average for new cases since 12th January.
 
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