The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Randy said:
Over 1.3 million tests aswell
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True, although actually the date to compare test results with is from the day before (as they take approx. 24 hours to process). That would make the relevant number 1.26m rather than 1.31m, but I accept that's splittings hairs.

Back in March, presumably due to school testing, we were processing approx 1.5-1.8m tests per day.

Anyway, your point (albeit unstated) is broadly correct. There will be a lower positivity rate at the moment than there was back in January.
 
Randy said:
Over 1.3 million tests aswell
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Yup, more symptoms = more tests. Test positivity higher than it's been since last Jan too in London, which is ahead of the rest of the UK in Omicron.

We could end up maxing out our test capacity too which we've not done for over a year (they have ramped up capacity again mind, so fair play to them on that).

I wonder if people are less likely to get a test now with symptoms, or even get a LFD at home and not record it?

I know quite a few through work now who are classing themselves as "it's not covid", and "having a cold", despite not even doing an LFT (which they have access too). Seems to me like some are scared to test now, as they want to be ignorant of the consequences.
 
Capybara said:
Looking at local figures, we've just recorded in a single day what we were getting in a full week a fortnight ago. Pretty much everyone will have it by Christmas at this rate.
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Most of the modellers have pretty much given up now, as it rises that fast the error bars are massive.

Some of them reckon we're likely to have 25% infected around Christmas Day, at the same time 🤯

They also think we're now missing 80% of cases.
 
Randy said:
Doubling every day isnt it?
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Every 2-3 they think, will be really hard to tell in the cases now though, as places like London will exhaust capacity very quickly.

Bars full of 20-30 year olds this weekend in London are practically guaranteed exposure now. They're low risk mind, so some might think it's better to get it now, and get it over with, rather than risking infecting parents over Crimbo.
 
Andy_W said:
Every 2-3 they think, will be really hard to tell in the cases now though, as places like London will exhaust capacity very quickly.

Bars full of 20-30 year olds this weekend in London are practically guaranteed exposure now. They're low risk mind, so some might think it's better to get it now, and get it over with, rather than risking infecting parents over Crimbo.
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As concerning as it seems on face value, I dont think its any real surprise that the R rate is so high, but the real issue is hospital admissions and fatalities. Both are still stable, although its obviously far too early to tell whether the latter is to be effected.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
As concerning as it seems on face value, I dont think its any real surprise that the R rate is so high, but the real issue is hospital admissions and fatalities. Both are still stable, although its obviously far too early to tell whether the latter is to be effected.
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Neither will be feeling anywhere near the impact which is coming mind, but London is still up 70% on admissions from two weeks ago, and those admissions likely based on cases from 3-5 days ago.

Most of the Omicron is in the younger folk, so if boosters keep it pinned in there the conversion rate will appear low.

Just got to hope now really.
 
Andy_W said:
Every 2-3 they think, will be really hard to tell in the cases now though, as places like London will exhaust capacity very quickly.

Bars full of 20-30 year olds this weekend in London are practically guaranteed exposure now. They're low risk mind, so some might think it's better to get it now, and get it over with, rather than risking infecting parents over Crimbo.
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20211215_162920.png
 
Andy_W said:
but London is still up 70% on admissions from two weeks ago
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Didn't know that and its a worrying sign.

Overall hospital admissions are not rising in line with the significantly increased infection rate, hopefully this will remain broadly the case.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 78,610 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 59,610
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.2% to 57,838 per day, following 3.8% increase yesterday (and 14th daily increase in the past 15 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 19.1% higher than one week ago (from 12.1% higher yesterday) and 32.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 25.6% higher yesterday and 12.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 165 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 150 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.4% to 114.9 per day, following 3.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.1% lower than one week ago (from 6.5% lower yesterday) and 5.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 3.7% lower yesterday and 8.5% lower 7 days ago)

Where to start?

Highest ever reported daily new cases in the UK (previous record was 68,053 on 8th January).
Highest 7-day average for new cases since 10th January.
Highest % daily increase in 7-day average since the height of the Euros spike on 17th July.
 
Just to mention that based on the Our World in Data figures the number of deaths recorded in 2021 has now surpassed the total of deaths from Covid in 2020

Half of the 2021 total so far occurred by the first week in February which shows how much the vaccine roll out slowed the whole thing down.
 
Posted this on the footy cancelled thread but might be better to post here for you guys who look at the stats every day:

In SA the hospitalisation rate is 38 in 1000 - so 3.8%. We are looking at 1,000,000 infections by the weekend so potentially a 38,000 hospitalisations. We currently have 7,673 in hospital now. I can see why they are worried.

Am I wildly wrong about hospitalisations here?
 
MolteniArcore said:
Posted this on the footy cancelled thread but might be better to post here for you guys who look at the stats every day:

In SA the hospitalisation rate is 38 in 1000 - so 3.8%. We are looking at 1,000,000 infections by the weekend so potentially a 38,000 hospitalisations. We currently have 7,673 in hospital now. I can see why they are worried.

Am I wildly wrong about hospitalisations here?
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I'll look into that later when I've got a bit more time, but that Hospitalisation rate seems high, considering they've had 75% infected and 25% vax (with crossover in those)? Where is that coming from? I thought hospitalisation was typically 10% pre vax, but more like 1% post vax, but not checked those numbers recently. Our numbers will be skewed by younger folk being the majority of infection.

That 78k reported yesterday, is from the 14th, we've moved on two days since then (for all of today), so more like 150k now (if the testing can keep up, which it won't), but the issue is, as this is spreading so quick and there's been problems getting tests in high infection areas, it's likely we're now under-reporting on a scale not seen since early/mid 2000. Some think we're under-reporting now by 80%, so we could be at 750k today already.

Even at 500k today, that's around 700k Friday, and around 1m on Saturday. As Friday and Saturday would normally be big transmission days for the 20-29 age group which was driving this (but has now spilled over to other age groups).

1m a day, by the weekend looks possible based on the assumed doubling numbers, but it it should burn out/ slow down extremely quickly, as there's not enough immediately susceptible contacts to infect. Also behaviour will massively change once more people realise that 78k number, and the implications of it.
1m a day is a 10k/ 7 day case rate, for the whole uk, and we've not had anything more than 2k/100k localised yet, so it's still quite hard to believe.

People should hopefully be aware, that an infection on Fri/Sat, won't show up till Sun/ Mon (19th/20th), so they should end up isolating over Christmas (to the 29th/30th). People won't want to be having to isolate over Crimbo, or hopefully not risk infecting their parents, so I think this weekend could end up quite quiet (out and about). People will still have gatherings though, as for some reason people seem to think they can't catch it off asymptomatic friends and family.

Hard to say whether testing yesterday (15th) could keep up with the 14th, so todays numbers might actually go down significantly or appear level (albeit infection won't have).
 
Andy_W said:
I'll look into that later when I've got a bit more time, but that Hospitalisation rate seems high, considering they've had 75% infected and 25% vax (with crossover in those)? Where is that coming from? I thought hospitalisation was typically 10% pre vax, but more like 1% post vax, but not checked those numbers recently. Our numbers will be skewed by younger folk being the majority of infection.

That 78k reported yesterday, is from the 14th, we've moved on two days since then (for all of today), so more like 150k now (if the testing can keep up, which it won't), but the issue is, as this is spreading so quick and there's been problems getting tests in high infection areas, it's likely we're now under-reporting on a scale not seen since early/mid 2000. Some think we're under-reporting now by 80%, so we could be at 750k today already.

Even at 500k today, that's around 700k Friday, and around 1m on Saturday. As Friday and Saturday would normally be big transmission days for the 20-29 age group which was driving this (but has now spilled over to other age groups).

1m a day, by the weekend looks possible based on the assumed doubling numbers, but it it should burn out/ slow down extremely quickly, as there's not enough immediately susceptible contacts to infect. Also behaviour will massively change once more people realise that 78k number, and the implications of it.
1m a day is a 10k/ 7 day case rate, for the whole uk, and we've not had anything more than 2k/100k localised yet, so it's still quite hard to believe.

People should hopefully be aware, that an infection on Fri/Sat, won't show up till Sun/ Mon (19th/20th), so they should end up isolating over Christmas (to the 29th/30th). People won't want to be having to isolate over Crimbo, or hopefully not risk infecting their parents, so I think this weekend could end up quite quiet (out and about). People will still have gatherings though, as for some reason people seem to think they can't catch it off asymptomatic friends and family.

Hard to say whether testing yesterday (15th) could keep up with the 14th, so todays numbers might actually go down significantly or appear level (albeit infection won't have).
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www.dailymail.co.uk

Omicron hospitalisations in South Africa are a THIRD of Delta level

Officials who analysed 78,000 Omicron cases in South Africa estimated t he risk of hospitalisation was significantly lower than in all previous waves, which lends weight to theory Omicron is milder.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

Sorry it's from The Mail - it's the 2nd bullet point after the headline.
 
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